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Recession Now: It's Deep and It's Going to Last a Long Time, Sonders Says

Posted Oct 22, 2008 02:42pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession

With the financial market crisis unresolved, the "real" economy has gotten scant attention. Unfortunately, the little discussion that's occurring is typically around a debate over whether the economy is already in recession, or about to go into one.

Fughettaboutit. The U.S. economy is in a recession that began in late 2007 and is likely to last much longer than the typical downturn, says Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co.

Contrary to popular belief, "consecutive quarters of negative GDP" is not what defines a recession. In fact, the National Bureau of Economic Research uses five parameters to determine whether the economy is growing or not:

  • Real GDP (inflation-adjusted GDP, that is)
  • Industrial Production
  • Employment
  • Personal Income
  • Wholesale/Retail Sales

Four of five of those indicators rolled over late last year and are now showing the economy in a "deep" recession, Sonders says. The good news is the stock market typically turns up about 60% through an economic downturn; the bad news is that it's unclear whether we've reached that point quite yet, and Sonders is understandably worried about the "deleveraging" of both the financial system and consumer's dependence on debt.

While fairly dour about the current environment or the likelihood of a turnaround in housing anytime soon, Sonders is optimistic the U.S. economy won't suffer a "lost decade" (or more), akin to Japan's post-bubble malaise. Her view is fueled, in part, by confidence that while our policymakers are far from perfect, they've been much more proactive in tackling the current crisis than Japan's were in the 1990s.

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269 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 22, 2008 02:49PM EDT

One truth is that bubbles always tend to go on longer than any pessimist ever believes it can; and eventually crashes harder than any optimist ever believed was possible.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 22, 2008 02:49PM EDT

One truth is that bubbles always tend to go on longer than any pessimist ever believes it can; and eventually crashes harder than any optimist ever believed was possible.

- Wednesday October 22, 2008 02:49PM EDT

It will take a long time to recover. Productivity is low in US.....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 22, 2008 02:51PM EDT

One truth is that bubbles always tend to go on longer than any pessimist ever believes it can; and eventually crashes harder than any optimist ever believed was possible.

- Wednesday October 22, 2008 02:53PM EDT

'Contrary to popular belief, "consecutive quarters of negative GDP" is not what defines a recession.' Contrary to most macro economic textbooks too.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 22, 2008 02:54PM EDT

Schwab DOWn 8.5%.. I'm shocked given the high caliber of their investment advice!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 22, 2008 02:55PM EDT

Schwab DOWn 8.5%.. I'm shocked given the high caliber of their investment advice! Fire when ready!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 22, 2008 02:55PM EDT

Schwab DOWn 8.5%.. I'm shocked given the high caliber of their investment advice! Fire when ready!

- Wednesday October 22, 2008 02:58PM EDT

Watch for the sell off at the end of the day today. Even with the Feds injecting money into the market (see the spikes in volume), the markets are still tanking. Time to panic.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 22, 2008 02:59PM EDT

I would like the true figures on M1 and M3.

- Wednesday October 22, 2008 02:59PM EDT

Nothing is going to stop the falling house prices, they are WAY to inflated due to the credit bubble. Obama doesn't have to transfer wealth, the market is doing that for him. The middle class is paying to support the lifestyle of Wallstreet - the loan won't be a long term solution... just another quick fix giving Wallstreet the opporutunity to cash out this year and head for the hills. There will be a mass exodis after these checks are cut. We've charged ourselves into a place that we can't borrow out of... now its time to make the payments. Will we be in recession - YES - likely a DEEP recession for the next 15 - 18 months, and an shallow one for the next six, to give this society the chance to rebuild it's wealth (and credit). This time will be know in our history as THE GREAT RECESSION. Thanks Wallstreet...

- Wednesday October 22, 2008 03:05PM EDT

I believe the bubbles in US will be similar to Japan in 1990. After the bubbles, people are more realistic - and will not follow the crazy stock market shoot-up, people will concentrate on the real-value (such as divident) of a stock

- Wednesday October 22, 2008 03:10PM EDT

The purpose of the federal reserve system was to stop these economic boom bust cycles from occuring with such severity. History has proven this is not the case. As a result, the Federal Reserve should be disbanded. Greenspan took interest rates too low for too long just to prevent a soft recession which was to start in 2001. The result was asset bubbles that grew and burst- first housing then commoditites. Now we are going to experience a long drawn out deep recesesion because they couldn't let the first recession happen. Listen to what Ron Paul has to say- you must let companies that took on too much risk go bankrupt so that the good assets can come forth and we can get back to the business of valuation. Otherwise, nobody knows what the values of these assets are and we suffer a long drawn out recession as everyone holds onto cash. Furthermore, the other item responsible for this is the derivatives market. Write your representatives and demand that the regulations be put in place for the buyer of the credit default swap to have possession of the underlying asset. What has happened is numerous insurance contracts against default have been written on the same asset, and the buyers of the swaps don't even have possession of the asset. One default can trigger an insurance payment which the liable party may not be able to pay. As a result they go into default triggering another round of insurance payments and the whole $62 trillion house of cards collapses. We must stop the proliferation of these contracts as they threaten the world economy and are nothing more than high stakes betting. Neither Obama or McCain has said they were going to implemen these very obvious regulations that need to be put in place so my guess is at least Obama is in the pockets of Goldman Sachs and at the end of the day will do nothing to put the regulations that need to be put in place to stop the derivatives market from ruining the rest of the economy. Don't fall for any more bailouts or any more rescue packages or stimulus packages because it is all smoke and mirrors to keep the investment banks making big profits which essentially suck wealth from the producers of society to nonproducers. http://www.blackagendareport.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=838&Itemid=1

- Wednesday October 22, 2008 03:10PM EDT

The purpose of the federal reserve system was to stop these economic boom bust cycles from occuring with such severity. History has proven this is not the case. As a result, the Federal Reserve should be disbanded. Greenspan took interest rates too low for too long just to prevent a soft recession which was to start in 2001. The result was asset bubbles that grew and burst- first housing then commoditites. Now we are going to experience a long drawn out deep recesesion because they couldn't let the first recession happen. Listen to what Ron Paul has to say- you must let companies that took on too much risk go bankrupt so that the good assets can come forth and we can get back to the business of valuation. Otherwise, nobody knows what the values of these assets are and we suffer a long drawn out recession as everyone holds onto cash. Furthermore, the other item responsible for this is the derivatives market. Write your representatives and demand that the regulations be put in place for the buyer of the credit default swap to have possession of the underlying asset. What has happened is numerous insurance contracts against default have been written on the same asset, and the buyers of the swaps don't even have possession of the asset. One default can trigger an insurance payment which the liable party may not be able to pay. As a result they go into default triggering another round of insurance payments and the whole $62 trillion house of cards collapses. We must stop the proliferation of these contracts as they threaten the world economy and are nothing more than high stakes betting. Neither Obama or McCain has said they were going to implemen these very obvious regulations that need to be put in place so my guess is at least Obama is in the pockets of Goldman Sachs and at the end of the day will do nothing to put the regulations that need to be put in place to stop the derivatives market from ruining the rest of the economy. Don't fall for any more bailouts or any more rescue packages or stimulus packages because it is all smoke and mirrors to keep the investment banks making big profits which essentially suck wealth from the producers of society to nonproducers. http://www.blackagendareport.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=838&Itemid=1

- Wednesday October 22, 2008 03:12PM EDT

This has escalated into colitis. It had started out as a bad cold when it hit the US finacial markets. It then became a FLU when it hit the European markets. And you have the Asian markets with there production slump. The BOTTOM is NOT even in line of sight yet. MORE TO COME

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 22, 2008 03:14PM EDT

Since the market usually goes in the opposite direction of 'conventional wisdom', I am happy to read the comments and the article which preceded them. Remember to "Sell hope and buy despair"

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 22, 2008 03:15PM EDT

This will be a moneymaker for the taxpayer?! What have you been smoking Liz, can I get some of it? The truth is that money is gone, swallowed up by the banks losses because the government didn't force bad asset writedowns prior to investing the money like they did with the S&Ls. I don't have to be a Chief Investment Strategist with Charles Schwab to know that losses erase new capital. But it's typical of anyone in the financial industry to give you just enough truth to convince you of their sincerity then pile on the B.S. Stop drinking Drano and tell the truth.

- Wednesday October 22, 2008 03:16PM EDT

these so called experts are all a joke. they should ask for a refund from the schools they attended. My 2 year old can make a better prediction than they can.

- Wednesday October 22, 2008 03:16PM EDT

inmho the smart money is lining up to buy just as soon as they shake off all the little guys (me).....when we hit market bottom this will be the begining of the probably one of the hottest and longest lasting bull markets in the history of the world..... it may take it a little while to sort out... but by the time us little guys figure it out... the smart money will have already scooped up all the really great buys.....if you look at the market... a marjority of stocks are at or below their all time lows..... at least quality stocks.... of really great companies.... at least I am in the Warren Buffet Camp.... and he didn't get to where he is by being a fool....

- Wednesday October 22, 2008 03:17PM EDT

Wallstreet new there was a problem with the banks over a year ago,but nothing was sed to the little guy! Thanks Smith Barney!

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