Saturday, July 4, 2009, 5:19PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
As the market continues to hold its gains since the Nov. 20 lows, more observers are starting to think that was an important bottom, including many who were previously cautious on stocks.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., is not a market timer and does not claim to know if Nov. 20 was "the" bottom. ("Nobody knows," she adds.)
But many of the signs of a bottom have been evident in recent weeks, she says, noting:
"Treasuries has truly been the only asset class that's saved you," Sonders says. "That may continue for a while but I'm safe in saying I guarantee it's not going to last forever. At some point investors are going to want to take some risk in order to get some semblance of a return."
I'm calling a bottom when someone jumps from the top of the building these two are in an splats on the sidewalk by the window. I want to see real blood spilled on that window.
I invested in stock market once, I lost my shirts........ I tried again, got fuxked again....... What the hell is this?
The next ten years won't be "typical". No bottom yet. Sell the manipulated market peaks.
Of course Investor wants a good timing......To have a good opportunity to gain profit.........We do not want to throw money in Ponzi......Yes we throw money on dice....When we bet ...but not the entire savings.......Stocks and savings is different things.........It is speculation too but the bet is sometimes so big and it is a long term strategy..............but both has the same purpose to gain or loss.
You guarantee it's not going to last forever, eh? Well, THAT's going out on a limb!!
None of the conventional wisdom is appropriate now. If you get in now you should average in over a long period of time. I would like to see the end of the bank suprises and the other Madoff schemes before I go any further. Sonder's logic is rings true, but she didn't recommend jumping in.
How can we prosper? I challenge you to purchase 5 items that were made in america. Our country must make things to grow strong. Households must save, not borrow. Excessive inflation as a result of the feds latest move will coerce household into more debt. A consumption and debt binge is what created the present situation. Why start another bubble? The hot stock market perhaps? The dinosaur.
The auto makers suspend assembling new cars, there is no Loan / Bailout in line. The States have no unemployment money .... its a little early to call any botttom.... The Banks are still running the game and will not loan our TAXPAYER Tarp Money.... we are still in the SHIP...sorry for the misspelling on SHIP i meant crap.
What's with this saying this is a bottom baloney? The major low has still not occurred. I can only tell when it's a major low within 3 to 4 business days or less after the fact by technical analysis and the November low so far was not the major low. I said it just after that November low and the 2 October lows as well. A rally can occur all the way up to 9924 on the DJIA and we will still be in a downtrend. This is just a sucker's rally to make you think the bottom has occurred. If they want to rally it up to close to that, I'll probably short it with options and call their bluff. Look at the market as a game of poker.
Just because the last 10 years was a lost decade for the stock market doesn't mean that the next 10 years will be any better or any different. Everyone keeps using historical patterns to come up with these conclusions when in reality, much like mutual funds, "past performance is no guarantee of future performance". Also, stating that 0% Treasuries aren't going to last forever is about the most "duh" comment I've ever heard. That's like saying that a solar eclipse isn't going to last forever, or that the daylight isn't going to last forever or that youth isn't going to last forever. I'll go out on a limb but I doubt that her job is going to last forever either.
We are not even close to a bottom. The problem is there is nothing to turn things around. Cheap money in terms of low interest rates is what got us into this mess in the first place, it will not get us out. Also, there is no way government spending and adding to the national debt is going to get us out either. It is not sustainable. Cut taxes and cut government spending. Let people keep their own money. Stop penalizing people who work and rewarding people who fail. You will get fewer of the former and more of the latter. Welcome to the Great Depression II. Thank you very much Al Greenspan, Barney Frank and GW!
Why do people still equate the stock market with people throwing themselves off buildings. This only existed after the crash of 1929 and people did it so their families could claim the resulting life insurance payout. Suicide payouts no longer exist, they are excluded in policies. As they say in mythbusters, myth busted !!
The old saying goes,"there is nothing new under the sun", this recession will eventually pass after a lot of pain and suffering. Whether we drift back to the same old bad habits that got us into this mess or "get smart" will remain to be seen.
I sold in Nov 1999. Bought back in in Mar 2003. Then sold again in Apr 2007. I did pretty good during the "Lost Decade", so I can sit out the "Never To Be Found Again Decade".
I'm tiptoeing in when the bleeding seems to stop. Who can tell the future with anything but a hopeful guess?
I seem to recall Liz (not) calling a bottom last summer too.
The FED slashing rates to near zero means its in panic mode. So how can it be safe to go back in the water.
The current market situation goes against past historic norms- both equity and bond returns are negative. This is a brand new money world, how can you predict what is going to happen?
In little-guy English: If you buy now, you will make more money when markets recover. (If you are already in the markets, too bad.). Gee, tell me something I don't know.
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Terry F - Thursday December 18, 2008 10:16AM EST
Just another broker looking for a commission at some suckers expense. This is not the bottom sister. To many people are still in major finaincal trouble. At best the bottom might be next spring, But thats a big maybe. The government throwing money in is just a bandaid on a suckers rally.