Current Quarter 'Crescendo' of Recession, But There's No 'V' in Recovery, Sonders Says

It boggles my mind when people talk about being near a bottom or at it. You had homebuilders CEO's saying the same thing in 06. You don't go through a long bubble and recover in months. We had a 10-15 year consumer bubble, that will take 10 years, at least to recover from. The bubble was perpetuated by credit and risks that should not have been taken on. The credit was available becuase other countries invested in the US because they had are money because we bought everything from them (oil, consumer products). This cycle will not happen again for decades. The result is we better get used to a new world, a world where we live within our means and save, which means this economy has a long way to fall. Next christmas will be worse than this one, I do want it to be, it just will be. There is a ton of bad paper still out there, credit cards, commercial paper. Just like they built to many homes, they built to much commercial property. Just like they wrote mortgages that they should not have, people took on debt that they have no way of paying back, especially if they lose there jobs. I promise you she is wrong. In a nutshell, for over a decade people spent money they did not have, the governments solution: to spend money that they don't have. The long term prognosis for our economy is horrible, you can't consumer and not produce. It will take years for this market and economy to bottom, I promise

Even Greenspan says the profit spreads against the Fed Rate and Libor are at least a point to high...... THE BANKS ARE borrowing for 0 and putting it in Treasuries and making money. WHAT A SCAM... Get some real experts on this program... GET Robini back on .. i want to hear someone that tells the truth so I can plan for my future.

We need to get people BACK TO WORK on things the country actually needs, like rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure. We do not need silly boondoggles that simply cannot possibly work, like (for Bush) the Iraq War, or like (for Obama) GM's ridiculous Chevy Volt. Stop shoveling money into the boondoggles, and create some $15 / hour jobs!

Invest your money now and the recovery will be in the shape of an 'FU'. borrowing is low and will stay low until we can borrow to invest and make money with the borrowed money. People were taking money out of their houses to finance higher return investments, investment properties, equities, etc. Much borrowing was discressionary not necessary. It was done solely to make market beta$ and "optimize" domestic balance sheets. The party is over. No more "money making money" without adding any value. The financial system was eclipsed by this gaming of the system. Hopefully the F System will survive this because unlike Japan [who had the USD and larger economies to fall back on] the US [global] financial system is the final frontier; efficient or otherwise.

alan j, I am sorry that you were blinded by the lights of rock star Obama. There will be NO CHANGE. It was a russe. Schapiro is just one example. His council of economic advisors are the same people (or closely associated) as the ones that created the catatrophic financial situation we are in. I worked in Washington, D.C. for 5 1/2 years. It will NEVER change because it's based on corruption facilitated by billions of dollars of special interest money.

Hehehehe... As Walt Kelly said through his POGO comicstrip, "we have met the enemy and he is us...." He was referring litter, but it applies to all of this misinformation being promoted. And BTW, where are the geniuses that predicted $200/bbl oil? From where I sit, it seems that consumption has been rock-steady through high and low prices. But the "experts" tell us otherwise - now predicting that our consumption is heading for near zero. Idiots.

Yes, Schwb is right on top of this. Gee, when I called my Schwab Private Client consultant on Black Friday for guidance, his response was "I don't know what to tell you. I think they should close the markets for a week or two to let things cool off." For that, I'm paying 100 bips consulting fee? Not anymore - exited the program two weeks later.

She's hot!

you have to remember this when the fed chairman said that he going to tackle inflation HE DID i gave 90%. go out there now every thing is so cheap great job BEN. The president is doing the right for the automobile area . only the stock holder will suffer. let take a look at airlines they file chapter what and come up looking good i mean real good

I believe this will NOT be the crescendo quarter. I think the first quarter of next year will be the crescendo quarter, with copious amounts of blood in the streets, both as to retailer failures, job losses, and an even further sinking of all industries except bankruptcy attorney firms.

Obama can't fix the mess in IL over his own senate seat, has been awfully quiet. He just showed the "I moved on" attitude. He could say the same thing for the economy and move on cause he didn't create the mess. I don't know how he can address any of this.

This is a depression with lipstick on it

It's between the "o" and the "e". recoVery

The $700Bailout was a scam. All it was is wealth transfer from taxpapers to the bonuses of failed banks that don't deserve it. I would like to see these banks failed , this is what happens when you are incompetent on the job. You are fired. No one is going to bail out the hardworking taxpapers on the street if they lose their jobs.

If you think things are bad now, wait until the GOOFY liberal carbon tax kicks in! ALL life forms on earth are carbon based. If you can't PREDICT the weather accurately, how on earth do you expect to be able to CONTROL the climate??? Any chance of recovery will be killed by these foolish and dangerous people. The only good thing is that they will not have the money to enforce the oppressive laws they want to pass.

More like a nike swoosh-shaped recovery.

"the velocity of money" isn't growing????? what's that supposed to mean? maybe that the bailout money is accelerating into a black hole?

Liz is one HOT Mama and she speaks in simple / understandable language but she could be wrong about this quarter being the crescendo; it could get worse in next couple of quarters, at least for the profits and the stocks before things stabilize. Recovery, if any, won't happen till late 2010 or 2011.

What a 'breath of contaminated air' that FED official Fischer says the FED is going to throw and give the corrupt and rigged system as much handouts as it needs to keep the corrupt and rigged system functioning. What A joke! Crash and burn is what AMERICAS corrupt and rigged system needed. Then reform woiud have come. Printing and throwin money on the fire that was burning the corruption out of AMERICA is only saving the filth and corruption to stay as is. Wall street is a TOTAL legal criminal ponzi scheme itself.

Yes, Learn Mandarin! Blame everyone, Yes! Including us, for not being financially literate and walking around with our eyes closed. Invest in your kids and show them the mistakes being made. Buy cheap foreign real estate in case we have to move...