Sunday, November 8, 2009, 11:21AM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

Who's the 'Smart Money' Now? Americans Give Up on Stocks, Wall St. Says 'Buy'

Posted Dec 22, 2008 10:06am EST by Aaron Task in Investing

Wall Street (a.k.a. the "smart money") is taking solace in news individual investors (a.k.a. the "dumb money") took a record $72 billion out of stock mutual funds in October, according to the Investment Company Institute; other fund flow trackers show similar trends in November.

Yes, while retail investors are giving up on stocks, according to the WSJ, Wall Street strategists forecast an 18% rise for the S&P 500 in 2009, according to Barron's.

Although mutual fund investors have historically been terrible market timers, there are several reasons to be cautious about betting against them:

  • The "smart money" hasn't been so smart lately; heading into 2008, Wall Street strategists (including many of the same cited in Barron's this weekend) were forecasting the S&P would be at 1,640 right now. Then came all the false "bottom" calls throughout 2008.
  • Stocks tanked this year and still haven't "bottomed" even though mutual fund investors have been pulling money out of U.S. equity funds since 2006, at a rate of about $40 billion annually, the WSJ reports.
  • Either directly or indirectly, individual investors own about 50% of U.S. stocks; if they keep selling, it's going to be a major drag on indexes for the foreseeable future.
  • Long periods of overvaluation for stocks — as we've just gone through — are typically followed by long periods of undervaluation, meaning today's "attractive" valuations could get cheaper still, or just remain stagnant for years.

Having said all that, history suggests true long-term investors would be mistaken to totally give up on the stock market now.

145 Comments

DawnE
DawnE - Monday December 22, 2008 10:17AM EST

most people already have given up

JamesN
JamesN - Monday December 22, 2008 10:21AM EST

retail investors are just tired of getting hosed by EFT and hedge funds so why not look else where?

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday December 22, 2008 10:25AM EST

Stocks go up when businesses earn money, but how can businesses earn money when people are broke (or worried they may soon be). And with no more easy credit, 50% of consumers are unable to buy. Overall economy will shrink 75% next year, so an historial PE of 15 becomes about 3.5 in the new economy. We are still way way above that, so expect a lot more correction to come in 2009!!

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday December 22, 2008 10:28AM EST

So dudes, I mean you Henry and Aaron, If you believe stocks are at fair value and maybe slightly below, then why should I buy them now, so they'll go up to FAIR value ? That would mean they stay where they are now. The overvalued scenario is not going to take place any time soon, and if we were to re-live it, then it is fair to say that they should revert to fair value at some point. So unless you can tell us that stocks are at below fair value in an exaggerated way, then we should not buy them.....

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday December 22, 2008 10:30AM EST

Despite all the hype, stock are not "cheap" at all by historical standards.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday December 22, 2008 10:35AM EST

In search of stability..........The Central Banks providedprovided liquidity on truly heroic scale and stand to do more even if the interest rate drop to Zero. They once more prove the lender of last resort as the present case may be, not only to the Banking system but to the economy as a whole.....In addition the Government provided stimulus to support demand as the succeding government will do more.....That good factor plus.....What else we looking for,that is assurance......That we are leading to better time ahead........ critics saymmmmmm, it will not work.....How come they say it will not work when the task is not yet finished and no end result yet.....They say is just a heresay...If you plat the seeds it will take time to grow and have fruit.....Why not wait for 3 to six months before we can judge on this matter.These are now the testing time, which few or any Investor experienced.How ever I hope that the equity market woll begin to recover later in 2009.....And that is justify by the factsm that mention......not including fuel and energy cost instead of going up, now it is going down.....See the cost of your motoring! it Gloes down....!!! That is the good news that will lead an recovery my estimates is the Dow Jones is Up 15% to 22 % from January to December 2009.......Happy hunting and happy prosperity.

Tuke
Tuke - Monday December 22, 2008 10:36AM EST

this task idiot is too much. the sp is UP over 20 from its BOTTOM so those who called that BOTTOM were RIGHT so far good lord yahoo, can you find someone less stupid than permabear and permawrong trask to spew bs?

Ricky
Ricky - Monday December 22, 2008 10:36AM EST

let the crooks play by themselves for a while - maybe they'll learn to play by the rules- are there any rules?

Art
Art - Monday December 22, 2008 10:36AM EST

What happened to the April 2008 Bush/Congress "Economic Stimulus Plan"? Remember when we all got a check in the mail form Uncle Sam? The only thing I saw stimulated was the price of crude oil. The law of unintended consequences dictates that government undertakings have unintended consequences that are the opposite of the intended. Given that, it looks like we are in for a rough ride over the next ten to twenty years.

RunningStick
RunningStick - Monday December 22, 2008 10:36AM EST

We do have bigger things to worry about! Try your health for starters. Next your neighbors health, then your communities health, finally your species health. The Doctors-in-Black may not be able to keep up with this latest batch.

Keith
Keith - Monday December 22, 2008 10:38AM EST

The whole system is rigged as the public is finally starting to realize. Madoff was just the tip of the iceberg. There's no question but that high-ranking SEC insiders were in on this fraud. There is simply no way a scandal of this magnitude could have been 'missed.' Save your money, folks. You've been ripped off by the twin evils of Wall Street greed and government corruption -and it will continue so long as you are naive enough to invest with these crooks.

Peter
Peter - Monday December 22, 2008 10:38AM EST

So where's the "Dumb Money" going? Matresses?

genius
genius - Monday December 22, 2008 10:39AM EST

Smart Money? That's an oxymoron.

TRADE REDD NOW!!
TRADE REDD NOW!! - Monday December 22, 2008 10:40AM EST

Every other week you get the opposite advice as the week before. The only thing that stays the same is the guy getting rich off trade commissions.

Bruce
Bruce - Monday December 22, 2008 10:41AM EST

Wall street will face a backlash, the likes we have never seen before. It all comes down to who to trust.....they have collectively shot themselves in the foot! Analysts advocating to buy companies when there stock is at all time highs, issuing sell ratings after they fall. Politicians will feel it as well, they have failed miserably in protecting our funds as well as our livelihood. Beware of GREED it's all around us!!!!!

whitey
whitey - Monday December 22, 2008 10:42AM EST

Looking for a guru to tell me what to do!!!!

William G
William G - Monday December 22, 2008 10:44AM EST

It has been down before and it (the market) will go back up again. Have faith in american greed and ingeniuty. Don't listen to all the crap that it will last for years .Even if you wanted the market to be down for years, it would not happen, history repeats.Everyone is an expert, BS. have your money ready. Their are a lot of companies worthy of your and my money to be invested in their venture. Be patient and do research carefully.BG

DougA
DougA - Monday December 22, 2008 10:45AM EST

trust and faith. bank ,credit cards,wall street,sec,congress. your best and brightest have lost there shirts. the whole time buy ,buy, buy, has been there war cry. I have trust & have faith the citizens of the united state of america will put there money else were, Also Put the banks ceo ,credit card loan shark ,wall street swindlers & SEC sell outs to have a good long stay in the state prison (not at club fed.)

bleaders1
bleaders1 - Monday December 22, 2008 10:45AM EST

These clowns probably don't even have a 401K. Come on guys lets see what your are buying!!!!

ess ess
ess ess - Monday December 22, 2008 10:45AM EST

stocks will fall further by about 15plus percent to stagnation till 2010 followed by slow growth till 2011 assuming all the money the govt r throwing will actually prime the economies. We need just one sector to start turning the corner and that aint gonna happen imho in the next 4 to 6 Q s as quality and sustainable growth has its gestation period after times like these.

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