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Venture Capital Bubble Set to Burst, Kedrosky Says

Posted Jun 12, 2009 05:03pm EDT by Aaron Task in Software and Services, Valley Buzz
Investment by venture capital funds is going to shrink by as much as 50% from 2007's $25 billion, according to a recent report by the Kauffman Foundation, entitled: "Right-Sizing the U.S. Venture Capital Industry."

As Paul Kedrosky, a senior fellow at the foundation, explains the in accompanying video, the VC industry is about to suffer a major comedown.

With the last of the bubble-era IPOs (or "exits" in VC speak) coming out of the performance figures, the industry's 10-year average return is set to turn "dramatically negative," Kedrosky says. He predicts 10-year returns will go from up 25% or 30% to negative 7%, which is going to have a major impact on investors' willingness to put money in the VC sector, certainly not those investors who fueled the industry's surge at the end of the dot.com era.

The key here is VC funds have high barriers to exit; investors typically commit to 5- or 10-year lockups when they put money in. Now, many of the funds launched in 1999 and 2000 are reaching their 10-year maturities and investors like pension funds are not going to be very happy with the returns, or eager to reinvest.

Furthermore, he notes, many pension funds and endowments are reassessing their allocation to "alternative investments" after the debacle of 2008, and have less money to invest besides.

Still, Kedrosky explains why less VC money actually is good news for start-ups that are able to secure funding -- and why no tears need be shed for venture capitalists themselves.

84 Comments

STORMSTOCKER1
STORMSTOCKER1 - Friday June 12, 2009 05:14PM EDT

WE HAVE A FORWARD PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO OF OVER 120, BASED ON THE NEGATIVE EARNINGS OF THE SP500........ A VALUE MARKET IS A P/E OF 10 TO 12, SO THIS MARKET IS SO OVERPRICED ITS NOT EVEN FUNNY !! THE STOCK MARKET IS A "HOUSE OF CARDS", READY TO COLLAPSE....besides, the above, our governments, federal, state, county and city, are all spending tax money that they don't have......so the private sector is broke. negative payroll "earnings", lost home equity,benefits, and no tax relief.....in sight. This market is a bigger bubble waiting to burst !!

asdf
asdf - Friday June 12, 2009 05:21PM EDT

Electronics is a mature industry. This means that there is less and less innovation and fewer new, lucrative products and services being invented. The aircraft industry is a good example of what electronics will be a few decades from now.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 12, 2009 05:43PM EDT

BUY GUNS, AMMO AND A LOT OF WATER!! THE REVOLUTION IS AROUND THE CORNER........

Valentin-Andrei Canciu
Valentin-Andrei Canciu - Friday June 12, 2009 05:46PM EDT

Bad news!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 12, 2009 05:58PM EDT

It took this crash for me to see just how fake the market really is.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 12, 2009 05:59PM EDT

U think the gov't and wall street have come up with this master strategy to get private investment into the market? they aren't that smart. they are frantically patching holes and putting out fires with little direction. we aren't victims of strategy and manipulation, just victims of ineptitude and desperation.

atul
atul - Friday June 12, 2009 06:02PM EDT

how many more bubbles are there left to burst.....it seems a never ending saga....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 12, 2009 06:02PM EDT

Hell no, not gonna shed tears for the VC industry.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 12, 2009 06:07PM EDT

that's actually very interesting. I hadn't thought about VC investments turning into funds- not sure why as everything else is funded. But anyhow- interesting that these 1999 (ten year investments) are gonna come negative. An 8 year old aftershock from the dot.com bubble burst.

Jesse
Jesse - Friday June 12, 2009 06:16PM EDT

Haha open table IPO. Please. That's like being excited about humidity.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 12, 2009 06:18PM EDT

As an encore can I see Paul K self-combust?

Nick
Nick - Friday June 12, 2009 06:19PM EDT

This is actually good news for retail investors. Once these big pension funds get back the money they initially invested (albeit, at a loss), they will not be looking to invest in VC funds in the future! What to do with that cash? Pretty simple, buy common stocks in companies that you know are solid. Need a list? Proctor & Gamble, McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Pepsico, Walmart, YUM Brands. These companies all have solid balance sheets and their business models are sound. And, as Warren Buffett says, they have wide moats...meaning, it's hard for any start-up to try to compete with them. Just buy the blue chips that have (1) no debt (2) solid earnings (3) increased dividend payouts (4) wide moats.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 12, 2009 06:22PM EDT

As long as u have your toy bubble blower & supply of bubble soap--Keep blowing.When your bubble soap runs out,try liquid dish soap.When that runs out--OH-Oh--no more bubbles to burst.

Steve
Steve - Friday June 12, 2009 07:14PM EDT

It's easy to want to take VCs down a notch but VC backed companies create a lot of jobs. There are over 10,000 jobs at VC backed companies at www.startuphire.com.

Warren
Warren - Friday June 12, 2009 07:39PM EDT

Global venture capital fund enjoyed good time in the 7 years econmic boom, without products and marketing innovation. Now facing more than 50 % plunge in investgment due to falling demand and prices as Dow Jones, NASDAQ shrinkmore than 50 %, Fro my 30 years development, implementation of innovative, product and profit added venture capital innovation, risk management is the only way survive in recession. details in www.osawh.com/venceo.html

Dick
Dick - Friday June 12, 2009 07:42PM EDT

I agree with storm. House of cards indeed and the DOW P/E is unfuckingbelievable. No way can they keep this market up but what do I know. I am betting they cannot though and hope it dumps cause I got lots of FAZ and want to buy more stock at those March lows again. So a nice dump, I win on FAZ, and then buy low. That's the plan for better or worse. If it works out don't worry I will be happy to gloat later but until then I watch and wait at the mercy of the market manipulators.

- Friday June 12, 2009 08:10PM EDT

Who's this character, Kedrosky? What does he know? Where are the specifics, give us the details. He's what Wall street is made-up of. People that make BS a way of living. I don't trust Wall street either but we still play the game. Too many wall street BS'rs, they want to take your money.

Dick
Dick - Friday June 12, 2009 08:20PM EDT

"Friday on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to a light 858 million shares" That's today folks and volume has been getting lighter all the time. This is just another indicator as to how fragile this market is so be wary of buying at today's highs.

Sabastian
Sabastian - Friday June 12, 2009 09:32PM EDT

The DOW P/E is 50!!!! The 100 year average is 17, and that's with 7% growth after inflation. You do the math, it's elementary my dear Watson.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 12, 2009 09:46PM EDT

P/E is PU right now. Simple e-nuff? Volume at all time lows, no foundation, yet DOW continues to rise. I hate thinking conspiricy but it's hard not to these days. It just has to dump again otherwise nothing is real anymore.

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