Wednesday, February 10, 2010, 1:20AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 8 hours and 10 minutes.
There are more signs of hope for the housing market. Improved median home prices and a revival of single-family construction combined with better-than-expected homebuilder earnings have bulls boasting.
Karen Weaver, global head of Deutsche Bank's securitization research division, takes a more measured approach. She thinks it's too "quite early to be calling a bottom" nationwide. "The green shoots are more like crabgrass."
Here's how she explains it:
Historically, from peak to trough, it takes more than four years for housing prices to bottom. That means some of the first and hardest hit areas like Phoenix and San Diego may, in fact, be near bottom. The Northeast, on the other hand, may still have further to fall since prices peaked in 2007.
However, if you're looking for a full recovery, don't hold your breath. Weaver says historically it takes 10 years for prices to return to previous highs.
In the meantime, prices will fall and foreclosures will rise. She believes national home prices will ultimately fall over 40% from peak levels, meaning recent talk of prices bottoming after a surprise turn in the Case/Shiller Index is premature.
Referring to a report done by the Federal Reserve of Boston - examining the Massachusetts downturn in the late ’80s – Weaver states, less than 7% of borrowers who had negative equity in their homes defaulted. Unfortunately, "the universe of borrowers is far riskier" today and unemployment more drastic. Therefore, she's not counting on such low default rates this time.
Unemployment claims are rising, again...not at all unexpected, given the country is in a *depression*.
why is it a surprise that a housing index jumped up? there was the new FHA stuff and that $8k incentive for buying a first home. This would be like saying there was a surprise that car sales increased after cash for clunkers. Economic data doesn't mean anything if there is a grand government influence on it. Basically data that would shed light on the economy has been tainted.
Finally a voice of reason and reality. Not the pie in the sky talking head idiots who have their heads up their arses. Weaver KNOWS what she is talking about. Case-Schiller,et al are worthless schills.
Banks continue to hold the shadow inventory which will prolong any recovery.
The cow plop is really getting deep.I'm from Ma. and you can't even give a house away.
this is no recovery.. what seems so unreal.. when facts like unemployment drops another 570K and the DOW goes up.. one has to wonder what is wrong with these people.. they are being sucked in.. only to lose even more money - again!!
George M, I see you point and agree that the case for deflation is strong. Bernake made a speech about the risks of deflation early too. May infact be the case, however, if somethig triggered banks to start lending and people to start borrowing, there could be a sharp turn toward inflation by your logic. Also note that the printing of money devalues money. What I see are two strong opposing forces, both exist I think, and are getting further apart. Some people are able to get loans, and some people are taking them.
sound argument, but if inflation took hold housing prices may level off or start going up.
With the Trillions of new dollars the Fed has been issuing to cover deficit spending, interest rates have to go up, and that dooms any housing recovery. Back in the early 80s, a 30-year fixed mortgage for 20% down, a good credit score, and income to back it up (no liar loan) carried a 12.5% interest rate. We'll be seeing that again soon enough. And then only a small percentage of Americans will be able to handle the mortgage payments, bringing home sales down, down, down.
I happen to live in an area of the east coast that is typically in the top twenty in first time homebuilding. I know contractors and mortgage loans officers. These "housing is rebounding" headlines don't match what I am seeing or hearing from my friends. There are definitley more foreclosures than first time home buyers around here. The contractors that are still working are predominantly working on remodeling and additions. A few of the loan officers I know have been laid off. Around me about 1 in 10 of the housess bought 2 years ago are up for sale. Maybe it's better elsewhere..
The market is so manipulated. China, Russia and India are buying gold and not dollars for a good reason!
I live and own near a college and our values have continued to rise. Lucky me? nope I'm just smarter then all you sideliners. My portfolio of stocks is up as well. Lucky? nope again because I have balls and you sideliners dont and once again the dow is making money today for anyone with 1/2 a brain and some smarts. Your negative karma is biting you in the ass on a daily basis. Wake up out of your negative coma and live a little. This when the smart get rich and the stupid get poor.
This guys are putting down America. They are very neg They turn everything around. Trade
Check out Lehigh Acres in FLA. There are 4 bed 4 bath, 3 yr. old duplexes for $45,000...and the taxes are based on the old prices, so they are about 300/month...
off topic , but @ sd weiss, their is not velocity of money, we have plenty of inflation but when the velocity of money gets rolling watch out -
To: uwhineidine - I get sick of the positive spin every day on bad news. Just about every corporate earnings report comes in lower than last year's numbers, and often at a loss, but the headline always seems to read that earnings were "better than expected". Expected by whom? By some Wall Streeters who deliberately set the "expected earnings" way low so that almost any number could beat expectations. They're trying to hype the stock market to get more suckers to buy in and take stock off the hands of Wall Street investment banks.
Damn another uggo on here...bring back a babe. At least if they are going to talk gobbalygook I want to look at something nice.
I like this guest. She takes a nice rational approach. I would like a better prognosis, but she makes sense. Get more like her, guys!
Chuck -- I agree, however think about this.... for anyone left out there with "any" common sense, it is obvious that housing prices will continue to fall. Hell, 80% of homeowners believe their homes are still worth 2007 prices, creating arguments will Realtors who are now coaxing them to drop their price, when in fact just a couple years ago "they" along with Banks, Appraisers, etc were falsely inflating houses. My point to you though, is about all these idiot greenhorns buying a home today with their measly $8k credit, when if they waited another year, could be saving 2-10 times that as properties continue to fall. --- God bless the ignorant!
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Mike T - Thursday August 20, 2009 09:13AM EDT
10 years may be conservative in some parts of the country, especially the Midwest.