Wednesday, December 23, 2009, 11:40PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

The Case Against First Solar and Other "Overvalued" Solar Stocks

Posted Sep 01, 2009 09:40am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Commodities, Clean Tech

While investors have been warming to stocks this summer, the solar sector has gone cold. Gordon Johnson, head of alternative energy research with Hapoalim Securities, says there's good reason to be skeptical.

Jim Cramer thinks First Solar is the top choice in the group; Johnson respectively disagrees. Johnson has a 'sell' rating on the stock with a $90 price target. First Solar "has a great management I just think it's overvalued right now and I think the street is a bit aggressive on the EPS estimate," he says. The price advantage that allowed for First Solar's wider margins is shrinking because "polysilicon prices have collapsed," according to Johnson.  Plus, that polysilicon material it uses isn't as efficient as the competing photovoltaic crystalline.

And potentially more troubling, is what might be classified as questionable accounting. It's a story Johnson and Barron's have highlighted.  The June quarter earnings were bolstered by what Barron's dubbed, "accounting help." Senior Editor Bill Alpert wrote in an August 17th article:

"After banks lent money to the project -- a 53-megawatt solar farm southeast of Berlin -- First Solar gave up its right to convert its own investment into an equity stake, and then decided to recognize sales and profits on the solar panels it supplied the project."

Johnson calls it "false demand" and says the move was contrary to what First Solar originally claimed. Johnson notes that on the first-quarter conference call the company said, "they would not recognize revenue until we find an equity investor." They obviously changed their mind.

There are some bright spots in the solar industry. 

Johnson's favorite stock right now is Trina Solar. He initiated coverage earlier this year with a 'buy' rating, but after the stock nearly doubled his price target, he decide to downgrade it to a 'hold' simply based on the rich valuation. Johnson likes the stock over its Chinese peers - Yingli Green Energy and Suntech Power Holdings - because Trina benefits from “lower labor and lower electricity costs.” And they’ve also worked through their higher cost polysilicon inventory.

Johnson does not own any of the stocks he covers and his firm does not make a market in these securities. 

40 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 01, 2009 09:55AM EDT

Whithout taxpayers money this corporation is dead us all other corporations

Bob
Bob - Tuesday September 01, 2009 10:03AM EDT

I don't see better future to oil. Until fusion reactor is reality (if it ever comes) solar energy is the only available solution in a long term.

John
John - Tuesday September 01, 2009 10:08AM EDT

The only trickery and overvalued anything going on is from the rabble of pseudo fake analysts making s#$% up on companies.

Karen Z
Karen Z - Tuesday September 01, 2009 10:11AM EDT

Huge buying opp now in Trina and CSIQ... They have worked trough expensive inventory, are gaining market share and their estimates are rising. They both have forward PE's well below 10 and nest years growth rate will be 30%+

Will
Will - Tuesday September 01, 2009 10:19AM EDT

Aaron, "respectively disagrees?" I think you meant "respectfully disagrees." Anyway, interesting interview. Cheers.

Tex
Tex - Tuesday September 01, 2009 10:21AM EDT

Good bottoms up analysis. A breath of life after listening to all the big talking, smoke blowing tops down analysts. I like ICLN ETF for investment in alternative energy.

chubby
chubby - Tuesday September 01, 2009 10:22AM EDT

There's nothing wrong with FSLR. It's a real company with decent profits and a real customer base. It's not the company's fault that idiot investors bid it up to $180. It's been great for call spreads recently.

David
David - Tuesday September 01, 2009 10:29AM EDT

FirstSolar is a German government Welfare Queen! Without the generous subsidies this company is just a niche player.

SampathP
SampathP - Tuesday September 01, 2009 10:31AM EDT

I think Gordon Johnson does not know how a business runs. He is just repeating a Barrons artilce. In some bussinesses like solar, some producers like FSLR build solar plants and sell them to investors. That is normal part of business. FSLR will have 40% growth in shipments for the second half according to some analysts. I feel FSLR is a Strong buy

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 01, 2009 10:31AM EDT

FSLR... hmmmmm... might be a good time to buy.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday September 01, 2009 10:43AM EDT

what bout the case against Wal*Mart. Tat 5 and Dime store from the Ozarks wants to look at all 57...oops! 50 states capital buildings red...oops! blueprints in order to turn them building green and at the same time the Walton estate owns millions of shares in First Solar... oh! jus why does Wal*Mart need to see those blueprints in the first place....it's not like ther Global Procurement offices base in China could help.

chubby
chubby - Tuesday September 01, 2009 10:50AM EDT

Hey Chuck, have you noticed yet how your idiot rants show up 3-4 times? Press "Post Comment" once, OK? Sometimes it takes a while, you moronic douchebag.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 01, 2009 10:51AM EDT

Buy Coal Stock if you want to keep your lights ON !!

j2n272
j2n272 - Tuesday September 01, 2009 10:53AM EDT

Solar power is in its infancy. There will be many alternative configurations, that will be more economical. Investing in companies producing solar systems at present is a "crap shoot" to say the least.

DavidC
DavidC - Tuesday September 01, 2009 10:55AM EDT

Hey this is Tech Ticker - shouldn't you guys be spending your time trashing bank stocks??

Andy
Andy - Tuesday September 01, 2009 10:59AM EDT

It will grow. Solar will grow. Wind power will grow. Both are full speed ahead. However, there are a lot of underpriced stocks out there and FLSR is not one of them.

Jan
Jan - Tuesday September 01, 2009 11:01AM EDT

Just like everything else people are not buying. The housing sales that have been reported are mainly the results of foreclosures and auctions. Otherwise, everybody is afraid to buy unless they have a secure job. Cash for clunkers brought all of the remaining year end car purchases into August, and the day after nobody was in car showrooms. Sales have plummeted!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 01, 2009 11:06AM EDT

This analyst obviously bought TSL earlier and now wants to sell TSL and buy YGE or STP because YGE has much more potential than TSL with limited capacity.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday September 01, 2009 11:07AM EDT

ESLR has to invest 450 million USD to construct a factory in China and it takes 3 years to begin production. China’s stimulus funds are for solar projects within next 2 years, so ESLR is late. ESLR’s advantage of using less polysilicon no longer exists after polysilicon price has dropped a lot and when other solar players can get government subsidies. ESLR and STP both tend to spend a lot and hard to show money.

Ray
Ray - Tuesday September 01, 2009 11:09AM EDT

How do you make money on solar if the product is over priced. The technology is being developed. The sun is still shining and there will be a brighter day.

Yahoo! reserves the right to refuse, or remove any comment that does not comply with the Yahoo! Terms of Service. The submission of spam, hateful, or obscene messages may result in the termination of your Yahoo! ID.
About Tech Ticker - Send FeedbackDisclaimer. Copyright © 2007 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright/IP Policy - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy - Help
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Delay times are 15 mins for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges.

Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data, daily updates, fund summary, fund performance, dividend data and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.