Tuesday, December 15, 2009, 10:56AM ET - U.S. Markets close in 5 hours and 4 minutes.

Roubini: A Big Crash Is Coming, But I Don't Believe in Gold

Posted Oct 23, 2009 12:16pm EDT by Vincent Fernando in Investing, Newsmakers, Products and Trends, Commodities, Recession

From The Business Insider, Oct, 23, 2009:

Nouriel Roubini believes that a "wall of liquidity" is chasing all kinds of assets, yet once the economy disappoints expectations, it will all come crashing down.

Yet for Dr. Doom, gold isn't the answer.

According to him, despite the temporarily asset bubbles right now, we're still in a deflationary world and we'll realize it soon enough once growth stagnates and all kinds of inflated asset categories come falling down.

IndexUniverse: Roubini: I don’t believe in gold. Gold can go up for only two reasons. [One is] inflation, and we are in a world where there are massive amounts of deflation because of a glut of capacity, and demand is weak, and there’s slack in the labor markets with unemployment peeking above 10 percent in all the advanced economies. So there’s no inflation, and there’s not going to be for the time being.

The only other case in which gold can go higher with deflation is if you have Armageddon, if you have another depression. But we’ve avoided that tail risk as well. So all the gold bugs who say gold is going to go to $1,500, $2,000, they’re just speaking nonsense. Without inflation, or without a depression, there’s nowhere for gold to go. Yeah, it can go above $1,000, but it can’t move up 20-30 percent unless we end up in a world of inflation or another depression. I don’t see either of those being likely for the time being. Maybe three or four years from now, yes. But not anytime soon.

More coverage from The Business Insider:

252 Comments

Rey
Rey - Friday October 23, 2009 12:22PM EDT

The Big Crash is surely coming // Elizabeth this is the big one honey I'm Coming

Steve
Steve - Friday October 23, 2009 12:25PM EDT

GLL when gold gets to $1100

Jon M
Jon M - Friday October 23, 2009 12:26PM EDT

If you don't have a job, this is a depression. Ask the millions who have weekly paychecks from unemployment insurance how many weeks they have left.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 23, 2009 12:29PM EDT

Also, if there ever is a Depression, and things actually got that bad, someone will clock you and take your gold anyways.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 23, 2009 12:30PM EDT

BINGO!!!... the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel is the LOCOMOTIVE...

Andrew
Andrew - Friday October 23, 2009 12:33PM EDT

Just follow the trend: www.originalturtletrader.com

joes
joes - Friday October 23, 2009 12:34PM EDT

I disagree. We're already seeing signs of inflation: Oil is up over 100% from its bottom $35 to $80 plus. Commodities are going up. Food prices are going up. Contents are getting smaller per package. You never spoke about the declining dollar which oil and gold are a hedge against. As long as the government believes in cheap money, and the printing presses keep rolling, the dollar falls while commodities rise. We're in a period of stagflation, because home prices still are falling, and I expect homes to get cheaper as unemployment rises, and foreclosures hit another wave. America is in deep-doo, and tent cities are already developing. Until we produce something that is viable to the worlds needs, emerging countries like Brazil and China will need less of our services and products. Our whole system needs to be overhauled, and we need to start with Congress, and move from there.

Pieter
Pieter - Friday October 23, 2009 12:38PM EDT

Look, I studied history and the stock market for 8 years. This IS the time for gold. Now and the coming 3 to 5 years. That is for making profits. In one or two years there will be a transition period, a crisis that will be unbelievable. What we had the last years was no crisis. And remember, it's NOT about inflation or deflation. It's about that people lose confidence in the goverment and banks. The trust and reliability will be more gone than even now and money from the government needs these, otherwise it's just paper. So if you're smart buy gold and hold it until after the crisis when it will be money again. Paper money will be based on gold again like in the 50's and 60's....

M
M - Friday October 23, 2009 12:41PM EDT

I'm shocked that a man who does not understand the concept of deflation or money for that matter would have this wrong. Hey moron if everything crashes again it will be a depression. Remeber to put your hockey helmet on before you go out Noriel you bafoon.

Elmer
Elmer - Friday October 23, 2009 12:42PM EDT

Yes the current administration and congress are putting allot of negative pressure on the economy and jobs. We are seeing the economy naturally come out of its downturn, with the big possibility it will be smacked back down because of all the bad policies in Washington right now.

chubby
chubby - Friday October 23, 2009 12:44PM EDT

Welcome back doofus. The market is up about 80% since your last visit, Amazon just reported record profits today. Glad to hear you don't get confused by the facts.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 23, 2009 12:44PM EDT

damn atheist

outtafavr
outtafavr - Friday October 23, 2009 12:49PM EDT

Why would there be hot demand for gold in a depression? In a depression, people need jobs, not gold. Right now, the best investment is no investment....CASH! Remember who told ya. I am always outtafavr.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 23, 2009 12:51PM EDT

Why invest in stones? I would rather invest in gold-mining business with good dividends.

kerry
kerry - Friday October 23, 2009 12:52PM EDT

Ill bet it will crash after awhile.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday October 23, 2009 12:54PM EDT

Although I believe this market is way too high, I do not believe there is going to be any significant downturn. Track the quarterly reports and correlate the monthly reports to the market and you will see regardless of the economic indicators and/or corporate reports, the market is on a steady move northeast. If you watch the dips, they are not significant because they are usually corrected in the afternoon, or within 3 business days... Masterfully crafted commentary have turned shit economic events into petty nusances. Mysteriously, key economic information is briefly touched upon and rarely brought to detailed scruntiny. e.g. CRE and Toxic Assets. In quite a few cases, the public is prompted to look at smaller, less intrusive events than economically more tragic events. Today was one of the few days where transportation results made headlines that actually trumped the real estate bullshit message. You also have people enamoured with the banks making huge profits causing the stock market to rise whereas you receive very little information on the key manufacturing sector losing jobs. As more and more people lose their jobs, more and more nothing is done... but a lot of comments are made about how little, insignificant things mean so much to America. The stock market does not create jobs, but the stock market affects the economy. The stock market is going to get propped up with money for as long as necessary avoiding any and all crashes. It's really simple to figure this stuff out. It takes a little time, but just do what I did ... correlate the different reports to the ebbs and flows of the market.... Someone, something is keeping this market up ...

steve
steve - Friday October 23, 2009 12:56PM EDT

Roubini must still be shorting the market, or he missed the March rebound and wants an opportunity to get in.

MICKEYMAN
MICKEYMAN - Friday October 23, 2009 12:57PM EDT

I agree with this guy.Gold is still just a commodity, not an investment. If your really want to take some risk, have a go at trading options (commodities)

Rob
Rob - Friday October 23, 2009 12:58PM EDT

I tend to agree. Gold is great as a currency because that means no inflation. There's only a few practical applications for it. Owning companies that produce commodities is much more worthwhile in my opinion.

Tony
Tony - Friday October 23, 2009 01:02PM EDT

Thomas...I agree with you that the market is being propped up. I wonder though how long they can do it.

Yahoo! reserves the right to refuse, or remove any comment that does not comply with the Yahoo! Terms of Service. The submission of spam, hateful, or obscene messages may result in the termination of your Yahoo! ID.
About Tech Ticker - Send FeedbackDisclaimer. Copyright © 2007 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright/IP Policy - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy - Help
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Delay times are 15 mins for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges.

Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data, daily updates, fund summary, fund performance, dividend data and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.