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Boo! Bulls Suffer Pre-Halloween Scare as Dow Sheds 250

Posted Oct 30, 2009 04:23pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing

A day after posting the best gains since mid-July, the Dow fell 2.5% to 9713 while the S&P 500 shed 2.8% and the Nasdaq declined 2.5%. The losses left the Dow essentially flat for the month wile the S&P and Nasdaq snapped their streaks of monthly gains at seven. Commodities also tumbled while the dollar and Treasuries rose in a flight to safety.

The declines in the past week have done some technical damage to the major averages: the S&P closed below a "big confluence of support" at 1045, which is its 55-day moving average and major trendline since the March lows, observed Ashraf Laidi of CMC Markets. That's "not a small deal" and leaves 980 as the next major support for the index.

A number of factors were cited for the decline, including a drop in personal spending but that was in-line with expectations, as was the decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

If anything precipitated the selling, it was renewed concerns about the financial sector, which has been at the epicenter of the market's movements since late 2007, for good or bad. Today, the newsflow was titled toward the bad:

  • CIT appears headed for a bankruptcy filing after investor Carl Icahn agreed to support its prepackaged bankruptcy plan. Trouble has been brewing at CIT for a while so this isn't a shock but that doesn't mean the economic impact isn't potentially large: the company provides short-term financier to 2,000 vendors that supply merchandise to 300,000 stores, AP reports, citing the National Retail Federation.
  • Influential analyst Mike Mayo of Calyon Securities predicted Citigroup will have to take $10 billion of write-downs this quarter.
  • Investor Wilbur Ross said the U.S. is in the beginning of a "huge crash in commercial real estate." Few investors are taking solace in Treasury Secretary Geithner's recent declaration that the economy can "manage through" a commercial real estate downturn without major upheaval.

Since the March lows, reports of the rally's demise have repeatedly proven to be premature. But if nothing else, the latter-half of October reintroduced the concept of volatility to a market that has pretty much been a one-way bet since mid-July. On Friday, the CBOE Volatility Index jumped 24% to 30.69, its biggest rise in a year and highest close since early July.

99 Comments

ezshooter
ezshooter - Friday October 30, 2009 04:32PM EDT

Corrections like this one are good for the market and great for day traders

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 04:36PM EDT

Step up and buy the dips! Happy Halloween!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 04:38PM EDT

I love watching this... from another country... Americans are getting punished for their lack of discretion and their total willingness to follow crooked politicians right over the cliff....

David
David - Friday October 30, 2009 04:42PM EDT

I think we're in for a few more dips before we see another spike. I backed out of equities last week. We all made a lot of money back this year. Don't get too greedy.........

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 04:45PM EDT

Monday will be a bloodbath. Bulls, don't forget to throw a tantrum about how the drop was caused by all the negative posters on Tech Ticker, okay?

Dale
Dale - Friday October 30, 2009 04:46PM EDT

Dollar goes up market goes down. People flee to safety making the dollar go up some more. Tell me why this won't snowball.

David
David - Friday October 30, 2009 04:47PM EDT

Bankruptcy doesn't mean going out of business! If the FDIC and other agencies are allowed to do their jobs then a new, healthy, sound bank will emerge from bankruptcy and continue to provide financing to customers. There is no reason why CIT should stop providing financial services through bankruptcy. More scare tactics from Wall St. looking for more bailout money.

David
David - Friday October 30, 2009 04:49PM EDT

I think we're gonna see a few more dips next week.....

Terry
Terry - Friday October 30, 2009 04:49PM EDT

Yes, realism might finally be upon us. No Senator should be in office more than 2 terms (12 years) and no Congressmen/women should be in office more than 3 terms (6 years) otherwise they do too much harm to us all. VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.

BobDiaz
BobDiaz - Friday October 30, 2009 04:50PM EDT

Considering that when one looks at the P/E for the whole market, the market is higher than it should be. People are getting a bit too excited about a recovery and are going to be paying the price. It's time for the market to move sideways, while the recovery catches up.

DONALD
DONALD - Friday October 30, 2009 04:54PM EDT

Don't get scared boys and girls. Dow Going to 13,500 next year.Buy all the stocks you can next week. Trust me

DON P
DON P - Friday October 30, 2009 04:55PM EDT

400 points of market swing in 2 days, seems like the sharks are feeding on themselves, glad I'm parked. Go congress, senate, house and Obama, print, steal, tell each other sweet lies, if you wern't destroying so many american households, this would be a comedy. Wheel of Obama!

kerry
kerry - Friday October 30, 2009 05:19PM EDT

It just seems like something bad is about to happen.

Coochy Cooty
Coochy Cooty - Friday October 30, 2009 05:31PM EDT

Nice work this week. I wish Aaron and Henry were on more often, they're about ten times as interesting as the goofballs on CNBC.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 05:42PM EDT

Most people on these chat boards are rank amateurs or spammers. So to make money just glance at the comments and see if more people are bearish or bullish. Then just do the opposite. Easy :)

Jade
Jade - Friday October 30, 2009 05:59PM EDT

Although we have a bear stick sandwich on the charts, Australia is expected to raise interest rates again early next week, and possibly by more than the 25 bp... 50 bp is looking likely. If this happens, it will boost the market again. Bull markets seldom turn around in a hurry, often re-testing the highs for a second refusal. 200 ema (gorilla or trampoline) in play on the S&P weekly and monthly charts.

san
san - Friday October 30, 2009 06:13PM EDT

When dollar and interest rates go up the market goes down.

sensey
sensey - Friday October 30, 2009 06:18PM EDT

Gotta give the devil his due - earlier this week, Jim Cramer said "stocks were done for the year" and we'd seen the highs on the averages. At some point, he stopped drinking the kool-aid and woke up to the fact that this "recovery" really isn't and we're in for more tough sledding ahead. Today he was proven right.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 06:19PM EDT

STFU POPOY - you are the biggest moron on the planet

SF Badger
SF Badger - Friday October 30, 2009 06:24PM EDT

High unemployment, fighting two wars, global recession...the USA needs to pull its troops out of Iraq and Afghan in order to have any chance for a steady recovery. Bush/Cheney entered office with a $275Billion surplus and departed with a $1.2 Trillion deficit...and, a projection that we'd only spend 50Billion in Iraq and Afghan -- total. They only missed that estimate by $1.5 Trillion. Time to pull the plug.

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