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Wall Street Is Setting Investors Up for Another Hurting, Robert Prechter Warns

Posted Nov 06, 2009 07:30am EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers
With the Dow back above 10,000 (as of Thursday's close, at least), the message from many on Wall Street is: Hurry! The recovery train is leaving the station! Don't miss out on the next phase of the bull market!

Not so fast, says Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International and author of Conquer the Crash.

"Everybody who's saying ‘buy stocks' today or ‘buy real estate' is, I think, setting up people to get really hurt," says Prechter, who believes the bear market rally is reaching a major top.

"We had a great opportunity at [S&P] 667 - that was the big opportunity," says Prechter, who did make a bullish call last February. "The market is up 60% [from the March lows]. There's no way the S&P is going up 60% from here."

Prechter's advice for most investors, as described in the recently released second edition of his book, is fairly simple:

Play it Safe: Keep as much of your assets as possible in cash and cash equivalents, Prechter recommends, stressing not all money market funds and bank CDs are created equal -- or equally safe. (Prechter also advocates exposure to gold but isn't as bullish on it today as he was in 2002, as discussed here.)

Patience Is a Virtue: "Sit back, relax. Be as safe as you can [and] in safe institutions," he says. "There's a great buying opportunity coming up around 2014, 2016."

Return Of Capital Is Key: "Be very careful," he says. "Don't lose the money you have saved in the markets that are likely to come down in 2010 a long way."

From Prechter's perspective, "there's no negative to getting safe." The worst thing that happens is the market keeps rallying and "you can't brag at cocktail parties," he says. "But at least you won't be crying because you lost half" of your assets.

284 Comments

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday November 06, 2009 07:39AM EST

smart guy!

william
william - Friday November 06, 2009 07:47AM EST

moron.... wealth is created by taking risk... America was built on taking risk.... not on playing safe... risk does not equal stupidity if one uses common sense and street smarts... invest people... catch the next train otherwise, you'll be sitting on pile of worthless $$$$s

ralf
ralf - Friday November 06, 2009 07:50AM EST

very smart, this guy is bearish and in cash since 1987....

Michael
Michael - Friday November 06, 2009 07:51AM EST

Show me the "money" which backs up this massive run-up! Where is the trail? Where are the assets? Presto-change-o ! Less is more??

Stephen
Stephen - Friday November 06, 2009 07:52AM EST

There's no way huh? I can't wait for this guy to eat his words 10 years from now when Dow 10,000 seems like an absurdly low number. Will anybody remember what he said though? Probably not. None of these fools ever get called out for failed prediction after failed prediction on Tech Ticker. They just keep parading more fools along.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday November 06, 2009 07:57AM EST

He probably missed the train and want to get in. If you sell to keep cash and buy stocks in 2014, 2016 as he advised, your current cash could be trash then.

Beck
Beck - Friday November 06, 2009 08:00AM EST

Huh! This is from a guy who has plenty of money sitting arround, and obviously Yahoo wouldn't let this do an article if he didn't. So He had to take risks or is a Momma's boy who got his money from his parents, I go with the first of the two. He just wants to keep people out so he gets better deals, 6 months from now he will say buy after he set up his ducks. Don't buy this nonsence for the minute it took to read it. HOOAH!

Jan
Jan - Friday November 06, 2009 08:02AM EST

The government constantly lies about unemployment. Did you know that there are more people applying for Unemployment Compensation that there were a year ago?

Charles
Charles - Friday November 06, 2009 08:03AM EST

Watch out, Conquer the Crash is bad history. His understanding of American history is based on the use of selective historical data points that are taken out of context. He has no background as a historian of American history. Is understanding distorts American history. Why? He refuses to understand that we have been through a period of long term deflation from 1982-2005, see charles Nenner's prediction on 30 year inflation. Will you lose money with these predictions? Yes, and you will lose more money by not re-tooling into inflationary investments, see David Rosenberg. For good American History, see Robert Lowenberg of the famous Lowenberg family of Sara Lawerence college. Wow, is the true state of American history this low? Why have our colleges failed to teach American History?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday November 06, 2009 08:03AM EST

Ps 135:15 ¶ The idols of the heathen are silver and gold, the work of men's hands.

Jan
Jan - Friday November 06, 2009 08:05AM EST

From the DOL site yesterday: ............................... UNADJUSTED DATA............. The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 480,178 in the week ending Oct. 31, a decrease of 14,216 from the previous week. There were 466,341 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008. .................................AS you can see, the number is going up not down. As you can see for the pa

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday November 06, 2009 08:05AM EST

william - you base your presumptions on what? You can conclude the subprime situation was perpetuated by risk-takers...

william
william - Friday November 06, 2009 08:07AM EST

hey Task.... are you still sitting out this "suckers' rally"??? I feel for you... you must so confused on what to do.... listening to all your guests (some of whom I consider to know what their saying...) but many are morons peddling their wares on your show...

Paul
Paul - Friday November 06, 2009 08:08AM EST

This market might fall to 9300 on the Dow, it was way oversold in March, probably 2000 points, don't believe these fools.

peddler832
peddler832 - Friday November 06, 2009 08:08AM EST

with the government printing presses running 24/7 to support runaway spending and an inflationary spiral unlike anything we have ever seen - cash is good. earnings are based on today's dollars wait till we see what happens in 18 months when the $0.70 dollar is worth $0.50.

Rey
Rey - Friday November 06, 2009 08:08AM EST

You are damm right they are setting you up when all the sharks decide to pull the trigger and sell all the stocks that they bought cheap in march all you little fishies will loose your A$$ if do not sell in time

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday November 06, 2009 08:09AM EST

I just LOVE reading the stories from the uber-Bulls and how they made a killing in the Market since March ... ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ... When are you guys retiring? Or, are you retired now with you vast wealth posting on TT to rub our noses in your financial genius???

CHETAN
CHETAN - Friday November 06, 2009 08:09AM EST

who is going to wait untill 2014 2016 for an opportunity.Untill then we should relax and go in to trans...? these guys all the time confuse little financially educated Investers and make fools of 'em. See Warren Buffet buying 44 billions of a Rail road company will you be telling Mr. buffet to wait until 2014 or 2016 is he rally stupid for making these kind of deals? Go buy.... take risk . markets will benifit those are brave hearts.

CHETAN
CHETAN - Friday November 06, 2009 08:09AM EST

who is going to wait untill 2014 2016 for an opportunity.Untill then we should relax and go in to trans...? these guys all the time confuse little financially educated Investers and make fools of 'em. See Warren Buffet buying 44 billions of a Rail road company will you be telling Mr. buffet to wait until 2014 or 2016 is he rally stupid for making these kind of deals? Go buy.... take risk . markets will benifit those are brave hearts.

Richard M
Richard M - Friday November 06, 2009 08:11AM EST

Even a broken clock is right 2x a day...

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