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Seeking Shelter from the Storm? Look to Gold and Cash, Not Buffett

Posted Oct 10, 2008 10:34am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities

Uncertain times continue on Wall Street -- and financial centers around the globe.

Following declines of 7% to 9.8% in major global proxies, the Dow careened lower Friday morning by nearly 700 points, before mounting a remarkable comeback to nearly break even ahead of President Bush's address at 10:30 a.m. ET before turning lower yet again.

With the wild swings affecting nearly every corner of finance, the question is: What's safe?

At this point, only gold and the dollar appear to be true safe havens, says John Roque, technical analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder. Even following Warren Buffett is no sure path to profits in these uncertain times, he adds.

The very fact traders remain eager to "buy the dip" suggests sentiment remains to optimistic, which is bad from a contrarian viewpoint, Roque says, suggesting it may not be too late to sell after all.

(Disclaimer:  Natixis Bleichroeder and/or its affiliates makes an OTC market in Apple.)

203 Comments

nicholas m
nicholas m - Friday October 10, 2008 10:39AM EDT

It is def. too late to sell for long term investors. If they sell now, there is no way they can time the market to recoup there money when the market is doing better.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 10:39AM EDT

Look at what's happening. People are selling stocks, but no longer buying treasury bonds, so the feds are INCREASING the yield on the 10 yr treasury as the market is sliding! The Martian spaceship that has stolen our money should be destroyed (-: I'm hoping that people will take a breather on Monday before resuming the slide towards DJI 7000

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 10:42AM EDT

Will someone PLEASE fix the chart on the DOW. You are using the closing # from two days ago! it is showing a larger loss than it really is! this was also done yesterday. Please Fix It ASAP!!!!!!!!

sirdon2
sirdon2 - Friday October 10, 2008 10:42AM EDT

Gold and cash are the only safe bet. Just watched the Presidents speech and it did nothing ti instill confidence in our markets or financial problems. Will MARTIAL LAW be the next arrow in the quiver for the Government to use? The Dow at 10:38 am, down 283.68. Expect a drop this afternoon to 7,500.

Doug C
Doug C - Friday October 10, 2008 10:42AM EDT

www.bobbarr2008.com .... The taxpayers are corrupt, every election, they get bribed with tax cuts and like a herd of animals they vote for the person who promises them the most. Never mind the fact that the voters, every year, leave trillions more debt for the next generation. Now 50 Trillion worth. If that is not corrupt, what is?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 10:43AM EDT

Will someone PLEASE fix the chart on the DOW. You are using the closing # from two days ago! it is showing a larger loss than it really is! this was also done yesterday. Please Fix It ASAP!!!!!!!!

RobertH
RobertH - Friday October 10, 2008 10:43AM EDT

I'd follow Buffett before I would Roque - Buffett has a track record - and I'll bet he's buying "blue chips" in large amounts - down market only means "buy time" to him. it will be interesting times for W.B. there are so many juicy stocks out there now. and a picker will smell blood..

Calco Creek
Calco Creek - Friday October 10, 2008 10:45AM EDT

Oh yeah. This is what the world economy was waiting for. A speech by Bush. This will stabilize the market (-: When is he going to learn that the best thing he can do is NOTHING

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 10:49AM EDT

HELP WANTED: Looking for a few good people to help me capture Osama Bin Laden and his cave dewlling pals and collect the $25 million plus reward. Who's with me !!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 10:51AM EDT

What was the engine that tapped out the consumer? Debt too much for too many. The remedy is to reward people who overextended themselves? Bad move. Not much incentive to save out there. Production (huge government investment) of energy renewables, puts people to work saves us from our voracious energy requirements. Gives us useful and credible trading materials for the rest of the world. Helps wring out the morass of derivatives that is pulling down global economies.

Gerald
Gerald - Friday October 10, 2008 10:53AM EDT

About time this silly Ponzi scheme called the Stock Market got dissolved.

E
E - Friday October 10, 2008 10:56AM EDT

Over the long term both gold and cash are poor investments. The proven long term winner (ask Mr. Buffett) is to buy great companies with sustainable business models when they are selling at excellent valuations. Such companies are value creation machines. Gold and cash produce nothing. Edward Roche, President Freedom Mountain Investments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 10:57AM EDT

FREEBIRD !!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 11:02AM EDT

BUY GOLD. Fundamental problem: a decade of bubbles and debt... two outcomes: depression with loss of all confidence or inflate currency to remove debt, effective default. GOLD benefits in both cases, and more in the latter which is what central banks are doing.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 11:05AM EDT

Gold is not a good choice at the moment. We are in a danger of deflation which would hurt gold as well, not to mention the price is overly inflated based on the current panic and there's not a lot of room for any future speculative gains. Cash is king at the moment ( including T-bills etc). Remember though, that if you are investing for the long term, then this is the best opportunity to get bargains in the market that will undoubtedly increase in value by the time you need to remove the capital you invest.

david
david - Friday October 10, 2008 11:08AM EDT

what about the board of directors of these failed companies-they were supposed to watch over the ceo-were they too busy spending their cushy fees for attending meetings?

david
david - Friday October 10, 2008 11:08AM EDT

what about the board of directors of these failed companies-they were supposed to watch over the ceo-were they too busy spending their cushy fees for attending meetings?

- Friday October 10, 2008 11:08AM EDT

If anybody had been following Richard Russell's Dow Theory, you would have switched to gold and cash when Dow was over 12,500. Even at 82 he's a master.

david
david - Friday October 10, 2008 11:08AM EDT

what about the board of directors of these failed companies-they were supposed to watch over the ceo-were they too busy spending their cushy fees for attending meetings?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 11:09AM EDT

When the presidential candidates promise (suggest) tax cuts I find that pretty funny. The U.S. national debt is beyond belief. China and the Middle East own it. Now with probably an increasing bailout the American people are the only cash cows around. Face it, we're going to be taxed like there's no tomorrow by either presidential candidate. With inflation rising and absolutely no wage growth the American people are facing a monumental deleveraging of their own. For over 50 years the U.S. has stressed consumerism until every man and woman has maxed themselves to the hightes bidder.

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