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Market Tumbles Again: It's Not Too Late to Sell, Technician Roque Says

Posted Oct 10, 2008 12:11pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession

While most everyone else on Wall Street is searching for a bottom or declaring the late dip has to be bought, John Roque, technical analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder, has other ideas.

"The S&P could retest its 2002 lows" around 800 before the current decline ends, Roque says. A comparable decline for the Dow would take the index as low as 7,300.

As scary as that seems, what's even scarier is we could see those levels in another day or two if the current crescendo of selling keeps up.

The fact the S&P is the most oversold since October 1974 and policymakers are pulling out all the stops and the stock market not only isn't rebounding but keeps on falling tells Roque the key to a real bottom -- concerted buying by true value investors -- either isn't happening or is being overwhelmed by forced selling from momentum and GARP ("growth at an attractive price") investors.

Roque's advice: It's not too late to sell and don't be in a rush to buy just because once high-flying stocks like Apple and Potash are down a lot and look "cheap." If and when a true bottom emerges, you won't have to buy the exact low to turn a profit.

The following disclaimers apply to the stocks mentioned in the accompanying video. Natixis Bleichroeder Inc. and/or its affiliates has:

  • Managed or co-managed a public offering for Lehman Brothers and makes a over-the-counter market in the stock.
  • Received compensation for non-investment banking services from Freeport-McMoRan
  • Makes an over-the-counter market in Apple

244 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 12:54PM EDT

Let it ride!

creategreenenergypowerathome
creategreenenergypowerathome - Friday October 10, 2008 12:55PM EDT

Stairways go ... http://blog.stockmarketharmony.com/2008/10/10/catching-the-falling-knife.aspx

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 12:57PM EDT

Where are the voices on this site that were saying buy, buy, buy a few days ago. I told you so. I repeat, I told you so. The trends your friend, so dont buy etc etc. Didn't I say that? You say non existent money? The $700 billion is all borrowed from overseas, and they will want their money repaid with interest. There's no free lunch, remember?

Ron
Ron - Friday October 10, 2008 12:57PM EDT

I just figure I'll make more money in the long-run if the S&P goes to 1 and I get in than I otherwise would have in the pre-meltdown market.

John
John - Friday October 10, 2008 12:58PM EDT

this is something that had to happen it was inevitable. what goes up has to come down. but what goes down has to come up in its own time.

FreakyFrog58
FreakyFrog58 - Friday October 10, 2008 12:58PM EDT

I hope Obama wins so we can go back to the glory financial days we had under Jimmy Carter. Just think soon we'll have 16% mortgages and 21% car loans.

John
John - Friday October 10, 2008 12:58PM EDT

this is something that had to happen it was inevitable. what goes up has to come down. but what goes down has to come up in its own time.

Kelty
Kelty - Friday October 10, 2008 12:58PM EDT

unix - I'll pay for the 700B if you pay for the $1.5Trillion in yearly entitlement programs....

Bret
Bret - Friday October 10, 2008 12:58PM EDT

Keep blaming Bush... that should solve everything. And who is the numb-nuts that let this guy write an article like this. Selling and not investing is the absolute WORST thing you can do for the economy right now. By liquidating everything we are only ensuring a deep depression. Way to be responsible with your writings guy.

LorenN
LorenN - Friday October 10, 2008 01:00PM EDT

I think John's analysis is good - even though he admits to being confused by the continued overselling. But his most attractive advice comes at the end, when he says nobody has to buy until the market has shown signs of finding a firm bottom. (No pun intended.) Until then, why not stay on the sidelines? As an individual, managing my 401k, I'll wait til the big purchasers make their move first, then follow back into stocks. My feeling is they're still waiting for money to start moving around a little more, and for a few weakened companies to bite the dust first. That could take months.

John
John - Friday October 10, 2008 01:01PM EDT

Mr. Bernanke 18 months ago when informed of the potential impact of the sub-prime loans on the U.S. economy by one of his governors at a meeting, responded that he felt the impact was too small to worry about...the rest is history. I am concerned that no one is talking about the massive amount of consumer debt or considering the impact that this have once it kicks in. I also do not believe that the executives of these companies, like Lehman, Freddie Mac, etc., should be walking out the door with large bonuses...how about a pink slip with no compensation including no unemployment! Do we need four more years of Republican rule?

John
John - Friday October 10, 2008 01:01PM EDT

Mr. Bernanke 18 months ago when informed of the potential impact of the sub-prime loans on the U.S. economy by one of his governors at a meeting, responded that he felt the impact was too small to worry about...the rest is history. I am concerned that no one is talking about the massive amount of consumer debt or considering the impact that this have once it kicks in. I also do not believe that the executives of these companies, like Lehman, Freddie Mac, etc., should be walking out the door with large bonuses...how about a pink slip with no compensation including no unemployment! Do we need four more years of Republican rule?

joe
joe - Friday October 10, 2008 01:02PM EDT

The Prez with all his croonies was not able to stop this roller coaster ride that seems to not want to come to a stop.When will the bleeding stop??????

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday October 10, 2008 01:03PM EDT

Forget Selling or Buying.......Relas and learn to relas and you are more than a winner......Relax.....

elucero
elucero - Friday October 10, 2008 01:03PM EDT

Where is our leadership in this country providing confidence? Our economy has become a captainless ship of fools. Sell off suckers, I can't wait to pick up your stock.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 01:04PM EDT

OUCH OUCH PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE STOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 01:04PM EDT

I want to ask you this question, stock technician. How much wealth did you accumulate in the stock market through your technical analysis of stocks since you started it? Probably, only losses. Probably, you gave up investing in stocks since you realized that technical analysis never works. Please get away, Chart Master!

Jerry
Jerry - Friday October 10, 2008 01:08PM EDT

Roque is only adding fuel to the flame. Why not just give your money away. Fine, I'm buying bargains like GM, Kroger and any gasoline company I can find now dirt cheap. When the economy is down, what are they things everyone still needs. Food, shelter, and gas.

reno911
reno911 - Friday October 10, 2008 01:11PM EDT

well its like this/sell like the rest of them and every american take ur cash out of the banks now in five years u will loose ur deposit federal insured?what does that really mean/take ur money and hide it in the freezer .

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 10, 2008 01:11PM EDT

It's just a case of mind over matter. They don't mind & we don't matter.

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