Sunday, September 7, 2008, 3:54PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

I saw a lot of amazing things on my recent trip to Seoul, Korea. In addition to interviewing President Lee at the Blue House and touring the DMZ, I also got to experience another culture.

One of the most incredible phenomenons is hagwons, or cram schools.

Hagwons are so successful in helping Korean students perform better on standardized tests, they've multiplied to become a booming cottage industry that rivals the nation's public school system.

"There are hagwons for everything," a Seoul-based mom told me. "There are hagwons for arranging hagwons, and hagwons to enhance appreciation for arts for kids, too, so anything goes here."

Unlike in America, though, where parents choose between paying for private school or using the public system, the majority of Korean kids attend both. The result: 12- to 14-hour days are typical for Korean schoolchildren. But there's a high price to pay for all this academic success, as you'll see in this accompanying video.

The segment is the first in a series of pieces on life in Korea. Upcoming:

  • Korea's PC game room craze: Why the trend is way beyond Xbox 
  • Why Korea is one of the most wired countries in the world. 
  • An interview with citizen journalism trailblazer Oh Yeon-Ho, also the founder of OhmyNews.
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"Here comes the official government bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. "

That was my first reaction to The Wall Street Journal's story late Friday declaring: "The Treasury Department is close to finalizing a plan to help shore up mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."

"An announcement could come as early as this weekend," the Journal reports, leading to my second reaction: Not another weekend bailout!

Reaction number three: Is this why the stock market bounced Friday afternoon, despite the grim jobs report and with financials leading the way? ("You think with Morgan Stanley involved [as advisers] something could have leaked? Naaah," one source quipped with evident sarcasm.)

As for the news at hand: The structure of any presumptive deal remains a mystery. "The plan is expected to involve a creative use of Treasury's new authority to make a capital injection into the beleaguered giants," the Journal reports.

The Housing Bill passed by Congress and signed into law by President Bush in July granted the Treasury the authority to inject capital into Fannie and Freddie and/or buy its shares outright. In theory, Treasury could spend as much as $800 billion on the troubled lenders, or the amount the government's debt ceiling was raised by the bill, The New York Times reported.

"The two entities are too important for the government to let them fail," Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco, comments via email. "The plan need(s) to create a short-term solution to provide relief to the immediate credit crisis while simultaneously providing some type of penalty for those who overextended themselves. Without the penalty, the moral hazard risk would loom too large."

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(I took a step back from video reporting today to take a closer look at commodities and the closure of Ospraie's main fund. I was introduced to Ospraie's founder Dwight Anderson back in early 2000, when scant few on Wall Street cared about anything other than tech stocks. Anderson caught the commodity boom early and rode it to hedge fund stardom, only to suffer a devastating fall this year.)

The bloom has clearly come off the commodity rose, with oil down about 27% from its July 11 high and rapidly approaching the key $100 per barrel mark. Meanwhile, gold is off more than 25% and copper is down more than 22% from their respective summer highs. The declines have been attributed to a variety of factors, most notably a strengthening dollar and concerns about global growth.

The big picture is a lot of pension fund and index fund managers were "sold on the paradigm shift of emerging markets coming onto the grid," says Mark Dow of Pharo Management, a macro hedge fund with over $2 billion in assets.

Assets benchmarked to commodity indexes exploded in recent years -- from $13 billion in December 2003 to $260 billion in March 2008, according to Bloomberg.

But "when growth slows and price action turns," many of those fund managers "go back to core beliefs" -- which is that emerging market growth was a bubble induced by the Fed's easy money policies, Dow explains.

Even a modest reduction in such institutional holdings could roil commodity markets, which pale in size to global equity and fixed-income markets.

So I'm not discounting such forces, but those trading commodities and related stocks should not overlook Ospraie's demise as a factor in the recent downturn.

Ospraie Closes Flagship Fund

On Tuesday, Ospraie sent a letter to investors saying it was closing its nearly $3 billion flagship fund after a 27% loss in August left it down over 37% for 2008.

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Republican VP nominee Sarah Palin scored major points with her speech at the Republican convention Wednesday night. In addition to "introducing herself" to America and throwing some punches at Barack Obama, Palin spent a lot of time talking about John McCain the man vs. the policies he would enact as president.

Other speakers took a similar tack -- highlighting McCain's biography, character, and experience. But some key economic themes also emerged, including:

Energy independence: One of Palin's biggest applause lines was when she declared "the fact that drilling...won't solve every problem is no excuse to do nothing at all."

Alaska's governor then went on to list what a McCain-Palin administration would do to wean America off foreign oil: "We're going to lay more pipelines and build more nuclear plants and create jobs with clean coal and move forward on solar, wind, geothermal, and other alternative sources," she said.

Taxes: Palin also sought to draw a distinction with the Democrats on tax policy, deriding Obama's plans to "increase the tax burden on the American people by hundreds of billions of dollars."

Former GOP presidential candidates Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani also picked up on this theme, the former declaring: "We need a president who understands...you don't lift an economic downturn by imposing one of the largest tax increases in American history."

So, as John McCain prepares to formally accept his party's nomination for president tonight, the battle lines have been clearly drawn. It remains to be seen whether McCain can seize the moment or Obama's campaign can effectively respond and reframe the debate as a referendum on the Bush years.

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Updated from 2:32 p.m. EDT

The stock market tumbled Thursday as traders fixated on the negative implications of falling crude: a slowing global economy.

Update: In the worst decline since June 6, the Dow fell 345 points, or 3%, to 11,188. The S&P lost 3% to 1237 and the Nasdaq fell 3.2% to 2259.

The decline was significant and suggests the S&P will break 1200 before long, says John Roque, senior technical analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder. After being "tremendously oversold" in mid-July, with an accompanying, historic spike in new lows "you shoulda rallied good," Roque said.
"We didn't. [The S&P] couldn't get through 1300. That's bad."

Thursday's surge in weekly jobless claims and weak same-store sales data were cited as the primary catalysts for the slide -- and strength at discounters like Wal-Mart is evidence of a struggling consumer, not a strong one.

Adding to the anxiety, Pimco's Bill Gross is warning about the potential for a "financial tsunami" if the U.S. government doesn't do much more to bail out both lenders and borrowers alike: "If we are to prevent a continuing asset and debt liquidation of near historic proportions, we will require policies that open up the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury -- not only to Freddie and Fannie but to Mom and Pop on Main Street U.S.A., via subsidized home loans issued by the FHA and other government institutions," Gross writes.

In addition, a series of other developments in recent days have offset stronger-than-expected reports on ISM services, productivity and factors orders, as well as last week's GDP report, including:

  • The ECB's downgrade of growth expectations, and a rate cut by the Australian central bank.
  • Warnings from Corning and Ciena about slowing spending, and cautious comments about the cell phone market from Qualcomm's CEO.
  • Terex's warning about waning demand for construction equipment from Europe and the U.S.
  • Sluggish auto sales, most notably from Ford while GM's 49% owned financing unit, GMAC, slashed workers and announced cutbacks on mortgage lending.
  • Snags in Lehman Brothers talks with the Korean Development Bank (KDB) over both price and KDB's potential partners in a consortium.

Given all that, on the heels of last week's cautious comments from Dell, Toyota, Diageo, and others, and it's no surprise traders are coalescing around the "slowing global economy" theme.

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As the dust settles after the much ballyhooed launch of Google's Chrome browser, two fundamental questions remain:

  • Can Chrome, or any other browser, break Internet Explorer's near 75% grip on browser market share?
  • Is Chrome really "more than a simple Web browser [but] a platform for running Web applications," as Google claims?

These issues are intertwined because without critical mass, it will be very difficult for Chrome to become the hub of a Web-based cloud computing model that obviates the need for Windows (or Mac OS for that matter) - as many assume is Google's true goal.

In the accompanying video, I discuss these and related issues with Walt Mossberg, The Wall Street Journal's personal technology columnist and co-executive editor of AllThingsD.com. (Click here for part one of the interview, a "straight" review of Chrome, and here for part two, which deals with browser privacy issues.)

Mossberg is generally upbeat about Chrome and agrees it has the potential to be a platform for running Web-based applications. That, in turn, could prove to be a long-term threat to Microsoft's cash cows: Office and Windows. But he notes Microsoft is not sitting still, calling IE 8 a "major improvement" to the now-dominant browser.

Barring some yet-to-be-announced deal with a major PC maker to have Chrome preinstalled on computers, "it's going to be tough" for Google to crack IE's stranglehold on the browser market, Mossberg says.

become the hub of a Web-based cloud computing model that obviates the need for Windows (or Mac OS for that matter) - as many assume is Google's true goal.

In the accompanying video, I discuss these and related issues with Walt Mossberg, The Wall Street Journal's personal technology columnist and co-executive editor of AllThingsD.com. (Click here for part one of the interview, a "straight" review of Chrome, and here for part two, which deals with privacy issues.)

Mossberg is generally upbeat about Chrome and agrees it has the potential to be a platform for running Web-based applications. That, in turn, could prove to be a long-term threat to Microsoft's cash cows: Office and Windows. But he notes Microsoft is not sitting still, calling IE 8.0 a "major improvement" to the now-dominant browser.

Barring some yet-to-be-announced deal with a major PC maker to have Chrome preinstalled on computers, "it's going to be tough" for Google to crack IE's stranglehold on the browser market, Mossberg says.

 

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In response to Google's release of Chrome, Microsoft declared: "people will choose Internet Explorer 8 for the way it puts the services they want right at their fingertips...and, more than any other browsing technology, puts them in control of their personal data online."

This latter point is more than just empty rhetoric, according to Walt Mossberg, The Wall Street Journal's personal technology columnist and co-executive editor of AllThingsD.com.

The latest beta version of Internet Explorer is a "step forward in privacy protection," Mossberg says, citing IE 8's ability to prevent Web sites from collecting your personal data. That level of protection is something neither Chrome nor existing browsers like Firefox and Safari can match, while other concerns about Chrome and privacy have already emerged.

For all the hoopla over Chrome, "the second beta version of IE8 is the best edition of Internet Explorer in years," Mossberg declares in his review. "It is packed with new features of its own, some of which are similar to those in Chrome, and some of which, in my view, top Chrome's features."

For these and other reasons, Google may struggle to crack Microsoft's grip on the browser market share, as we discuss in more detail in part 3. (Click here for part one of my interview with Mossberg.)

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The reviews of Google's new browser Chrome keep coming, but none are as influential or intensive as Walt Mossberg's. The Wall Street Journal's personal technology columnist and co-executive editor of AllThingsD.com conducted an exclusive, extended hands-on test of Chrome prior to Tuesday's public unveiling of the beta version.

"Chrome is a smart, innovative browser that, in many common scenarios, will make using the Web faster, easier and less frustrating," Mossberg writes.

In the accompanying video, Mossberg discusses some of Chrome's best features, including it's stripped down interface, "Omnibox" feature, intuitive browsing, tab-to-search function, and other architectural changes.

Mossberg and I also discuss some of Chrome's shortcomings, including the lack of some basic browsing features, which Mossberg writes makes this first beta version "rough around the edges."

And stay tuned for part two of my interview with Mossberg, where we address some of the following questions:

  • How does Chrome stack up vs. the competition, most notably Microsoft's Internet Explorer but also Mozilla's Firefox?
  • Can Chrome take serious market share from IE without being pre-installed on PCs?
  • Is Chrome really more than a browser, as Google (and others) claim?
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Updated from 11:56 a.m. EDT

Lehman Brothers' shares rallied Tuesday as the firm's on-again, off-again discussions with the state-owned Korea Development Bank (KDB) switched back to the "on" position.

At issue is both the terms of the deal -- Britain's Sunday Telegraph says $6 billion for a 25% stake in Lehman -- and what other firms are involved. KDB officials want to "form a consortium with private banks as [they] believe it is more desirable to acquire Lehman Brothers jointly rather than alone,'' The New York Times reports.

Also at issue is whether Lehman's embattled CEO Richard Fuld can afford to play hardball over the price -- as is also being reported -- and whether he can survive at Lehman's helm regardless.

Update: After trading as high as $17.53 early Tuesday, Lehman shares were recently down 1.8% to $15.80. The broader market has failed to sustain its early gains and any deal with KDB faces stiff regulatory hurdles, The Wall Street Journal reports.

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Stocks began September with an upside flourish thanks to tumbling oil prices and renewed deal talk for Lehman Brothers.

In recent trading, the Dow was up 1.75%, the S&P higher by 1.4% and the Nasdaq was up 1.6%.

Stock futures pointed to the strong opening after crude futures plummeted to under $110 per barrel after Hurricane Gustav proved less-destructive-than-feared to offshore oil installations.

Falling commodity prices -- gold also fell sharply early Tuesday -- reflect both traders renewed comfort with owning stocks, as well as a slowing global economy. It is this latter point that should provide some caveats to the excitement being expressed Tuesday morning.

In addition, the stock market is not cheap (and arguably expensive) based on both trailing P/Es and cyclically adjusted earnings, as Henry and I discuss in the accompanying video.

"The time to be aggressively bullish was at the mid-July 'lows', not here," writes Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut, who sees a near-term move to 1,320-1,330 if the S&P can close above its Aug. 11 high of 1,305.

In sum, stocks looks better positioned as a short-term trade vs. a long-term investment.

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