Monday, November 30, 2009, 7:13AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 2 hours and 17 minutes.

Aaron Task Posts by Aaron Task

Putting Peter Schiff on a panel with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder is asking for trouble or, at the very least, a heated debate.

That's just what occurred last Sunday night in New York at an event sponsored by Princeton's Business Today.

Predictably, Euro Pacific Capital's Schiff disagreed with Bullard and Blinder on just about everything, including the government's role in causing the crisis, and the outlook for the economy and the dollar.

But the most contentious moment came toward the end of the evening when a student asked the panel to comment on Ben Bernanke's 2005 "global savings glut" theory, and what role China's high saving rate played in the credit bubble.

Schiff's response, "Ben Bernanke has never gotten anything right," generated some guffaws from the crowd and a sharp retort from Blinder and Bullard...

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Gold soared to yet another new record overnight as the dollar slumped again after Tuesday's release of the minutes of the Fed's Nov. 3-4 meeting.

While FOMC members raised concerns about "negative side effects" from a zero rate policy -- including (duh) "excessive risk-taking in financial markets" -- the bottom line is the central bank's pledge to keep rates low "for an extended period" is giving a green light to speculators to short the dollar and invest in "risk assets."

Those assets include commodities like gold, which broke above $1180 per ounce Wednesday morning, and global stocks. After a big rally in Asia overnight and more modest gains in Europe, major U.S. averages opened higher before flattening out in light, pre-holiday trading.

Heading into the Thanksgiving weekend, there's a general sense that a combination of excessive government stimulus and money managers' "performance anxiety" will keep the rally going into year-end, at least.

But as Henry Blodget notes in the accompanying clip...

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A fifth-straight monthly gain for the Case-Shiller Index Tuesday and
Monday's stronger-than-expected existing home sales report is giving renewed hope to the housing bulls.

"Disregard them," says Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ, who notes the existing home sales number was juiced by sales of cheap condos and various government programs. Meanwhile, the Case-Shiller results were below expectations.

We are "not even close" to a bottom in housing, says Ritholtz, who estimates national house prices remain 15-20% overvalued, based on the traditional metrics of: median income-to-median sales price, the cost of owning vs. renting, and housing stock as a percent of GDP.

"Until we start seeing a healthy housing market that can stand on its own, without government props, without distressed properties selling 60% off peak levels - that's how you know the bottom is in," says the blogger and Bailout Nation author. (Full disclosure: I edited Ritholtz's book and was paid for my contributions.)

The likely best-case-scenario for housing is...

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With the financial sector ETF up about 135% from its March lows, some of the banking sector's most notable bears are on the prowl again:

  • Last week, Meredith Whitney told CNBC "I haven't been this bearish in a year" and was even more downbeat in an interview with Bloomberg radio: "The banks are still grossly overvalued," she said. "People are expecting something great to happen in 2010 and I think they are going to be severely disappointed."
  • Last month, IRA's Chris Whalen told Tech Ticker the fourth-quarter is going to be a "bloodbath" for the bank earnings.

Dick Bove, banking analyst at Rochdale Securities, doesn't disagree the sector's earnings are likely to be weak in the fourth-quarter and first half of 2010. But as is so often the case, he's willing to provide the bullish ying to the bearish yang of Whitney and Whalen.

"The potential growth you get from buying these stocks at the current time is so attractive that it's worthwhile buying them and closing your eyes concerning what earnings are going to be this quarter or the following quarter," Bove tells Henry and me in the accompanying video.

That comment pertains generally to the sector, save regional banks, and especially investment banks exposed to the "explosion of M&A activity" Bove sees in 2010, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Evercore Partners and Lazard.

Incredibly, the quote above was made specifically in reference to Bank of America and Citigroup, the two struggling giants of U.S. banking...

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St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard has been making headlines and moving markets lately. But as is so often the case, traders may be jumping the gun as the headlines may be misrepresenting Bullard's stance on monetary policy.

The irony here is that Bullard is being characterized as a dove when, in fact, the opposite may be true. This is no small matter since Bullard will become a voting member of the FOMC in 2010.

So let's review:

The dollar weakness Monday morning was attributed, in part, to Bullard's comments that he would like to see the Fed continue its program of buying mortgage-backed and other asset-backed securities, rather than let it expire on March 31, as currently planned.

As with last week's brouhaha over his comments about the Fed possibly staying on hold until 2012, the headlines about the asset-buying program miss some of the nuance of Bullard's view.

Bullard recommends continuing the program "at a very low level," Dow Jones reports, adding: "As long as we are at zero [percent], we'd be able to send signals to the markets about what we are thinking about the economy, and how much accommodation the economy needs at various points, by adjusting the asset purchases."

In other words, if the asset-buying program is kept open, it can be another tool for the Fed to communicate with the market by means other than moving the Fed funds rate.

After spending some time with Bullard Sunday evening, it's pretty clear to me that he's no dove. As you'll see in the accompanying video, Bullard is very concerned about the potential for asset bubbles and the Fed's role in creating them...

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Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner took some heavy fire on Capitol Hill Thursday. Days after Oregon Democrat Peter DeFazio called for Geithner's resignation, Texas Republican told the Secretary: "The public has lost all confidence in your ability to do the job."

While these comments were notably terse, it's not unusual for politicians to take shots at a Treasury Secretary or Fed Chairman in order to score points with their constituents. It's a key part of the "dog and pony show."

What is unusual is for a sitting Secretary or Chairman to return the favor, as Geithner did yesterday, telling Brady: "What I can't take responsibility is for the legacy of the crises you've bequeathed this country."

There's obviously a "we inherited a disaster" mentality in the Obama administration and maybe this was just partisan politics and another example of how civility is in ever-decreasing supply in Washington. Or maybe Geithner is getting tired of the criticism and thinking about moving to the private sector sooner vs. later, as Henry Blodget writes.

The other issue here is why Geithner is getting such heat now when the economy is on firmer footing and the crisis seems to have passed. Some possibilities...

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The post-op on the great crash of 2008 continued in Washington Thursday as the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) held a hearing on financial reform.

"Unfortunately, the regulatory regime that failed so terribly leading up to the financial crisis is precisely the regulatory regime we have today," Treasury Secretary Geithner declared. "We need comprehensive financial reform."

As a former executive director of the JEC and professor of government/business relations at University of Texas, James Galbraith knows a bit about public policy. As the son of esteemed economist and "The Great Crash" author John Kenneth Galbraith, he also knows something about what it takes to put the pieces back together after a speculative boom and bust.

There is a way to have a financial system with a "reasonable degree of stability" and "serves a public purpose," Galbraith says. "But it does require having a government which is not run by the financial sector."

Galbraith didn't use the term "Government Sachs," but said "we're not going to get where we need to get...if you have this revolving door where all the people from Wall Street go down to Washington and offer their services and basically serve their own worldview and the financial interests of their friends."

While there seems to be no discussion of prohibiting the sort of "public service" practiced by so many alums of Goldman Sachs, or of reinstating Glass-Steagall (something he also supports), Galbraith says there is some progress being made on the reform front...

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Disappointing reports this week on housing starts and foreclosures, as well as the index of leading economic indicators, have cast a bit of a pall on the "robust recovery" story, putting a crimp in the stock market's ascent in the process.

University of Texas professor James Galbraith was never a believer in the V-shaped recovery and says it's going to take a very long time for the U.S. to recover from a "truly extraordinary slump."

What the optimists are missing is the impact the housing bust is having on both American's ability to borrow and banks willingness to lend. The resulting credit contraction will prevent this recovery from following the path of those following prior post-war recessions, he says.

"There's no question the U.S. economy has stabilized but [it] remains very weak and will likely continue to be weak," Galbraith says. "There's very little sign the benefits that are being felt on Wall Street will be felt in the broader country anytime soon."

Galbraith predicts the unemployment rate will continue to rise into 2010 and decline "very slowly" thereafter. The U.S. economy needs "substantially greater policy intervention," he says, focused on the following...

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"It's dangerous to be short this market," says Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak.

Despite a penchant for bearishness, Boockvar says the rally can continue as long as the Fed keeps rates at zero.

"When you cut rates to nothing you're encouraging people to take risk," Boockvar says. "As long as asset inflation is [the Fed's] goal, the market could go higher but there are obvious consequences," including inflation.

The Fed is trying to create "the illusion of prosperity" by fueling asset price appreciation, Boockvar says, staying true to his reputation as a deficit hawk. Even if the U.S. stock market keeps rallying, "non-dollar assets" like commodities and emerging markets will continue to outperform, he says.

Unlike the U.S., emerging markets are "not weighed down by enormous debt levels" and local consumers are "much better off" than their American counterparts, the strategist says, expressing a strong preference for China.

"If you want exposure to global growth, it's going to be outside of the U.S.," he says, recommending the following...

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Inflation fears resurfaced Wednesday's after October CPI came in higher than expected and St. Louis Fed President Bullard suggested the Fed might stay on hold until 2012, based on its tightening schedule following the past two recessions.

The newswires probably made too much of Bullard's comments - and headline writers overlooked his caveats: "The 'too low for too long' argument may weigh heavily on the FOMC this time," he said.

But TIPS spreads did widen sharply Wednesday and the bottom line is "the market is becoming worried about inflation," according to Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. "Not hyperinflation, not crazy inflation but inflation nonetheless."

So the $64 trillion question remains: When will the Fed act?

"The Fed has rates a zero. That was an emergency rate. The emergency is clearly is over. So why do you still have rates at zero. What are you afraid of?," Boockvar wonders. "Does the biggest economy in the world not function with rates above zero? That's what they're saying about us and I don't have that kind of pessimism."

Rather than speculate about when the Fed will stop talking about exit strategies and actually act, Boockvar believes "the market is going to force their hand,"...

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