David Walker: Health Care Reform Savings "Misleading," But Not Double-Counted

Health care reform is now law but the arguing between Democrats and Republican over the costs is likely to last well into the November midterm elections.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office concluded the House version of the $940 billion bill passed into law would cut $138 billion off the federal deficit over the next 10 years. Republicans don't buy it and say the law will bankrupt the country.

Are the numbers to be trusted?

That's the focus of the accompanying clip with David Walker – arguably the most qualified person to answer these questions. As the former head of the Government Accountability Office and former Comptroller General of the United States Walker is intimately familiar with the fuzzy math lawmakers try to get away with.

One of the leading arguments over the reform bill was centered on the contention that it double counts some of the Medicare savings. Walker, the current CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, isn't sure it's double counting but is comfortable saying the savings the assumptions the CBO were forced to do their accounting from was misleading. "In reality the economic capacity of the United States is no different," he says.

Whether the health-care reform saves us money is unclear and will be determined by time, Walker contends. However, he's certain "government is bigger, entitlement programs have expanded, spending has increased and taxes are higher" as a result of the law.

Frankly, Walker believes there's bigger fish to fry before we get to the reform costs: There's "$50 trillion of unfunded promises -- of which $38 trillion or more is Medicare alone -- that we still don't know how we're going to keep," he tells Aaron in the accompanying clip.

To better understand what that means for the average American family, Walker says, "the median household has a second or third mortgage equal to 10 times their income but no house backing that mortgage."

In a new book, Comeback America, Walker lays out a game plan to attack the problem, featuring these simple steps:

• -- Imposing a budget on how much the federal government will spend on health care
• -- Change our payment systems, our tax incentives and our taxpayer subsidies

The even bigger problem may be getting politicians to act on these unpopular but necessary ideas.

Earlier:

• David Walker: U.S. Standard of Living Unsustainable Without Drastic Action
• Bush Administration "the Least Fiscally Responsible in History," Budget Hawk Says