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Fixing Social Security "Relatively Simple" But Pension Crisis Will "End in Tears," Mauldin Says

Posted Aug 09, 2010 03:42pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Politics

Social Security turns 75 this month. A pillar of the New Deal era, Social Security remains vitally important to Americans and shapes the way many plan for retirement. “Half of Floridians on Social Security rely on the benefit for half their income. Some 25 percent count on Social Security for at least 90 percent of their income,” notes a recent St. Petersburg Times story.

At 75, however, Social Security is showing its age. Based on current projections the program will fail to pay 100% of promised benefits in 2037. It’s also suffering a crisis of confidence among younger Americans. That same St. Pete Times article sites a recent USA Today-Gallup Poll that found 75% of those 18 to 34 “don't expect to get a Social Security check.”

John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave, believes the problems with Social Security could be solved “relatively simply” by raising the retirement age. Making these changes may take simple mathematical tweaks in the formula but getting those passed in Congress won’t be easy. They don’t call it the “third rail” of politics for nothing and Mauldin admits it won't be painless.

Mauldin is far more concerned about the problem of underfunded state and local pension funds. “There’s a crisis coming. It’s going to end in big tears,” he says. As he writes in his most recent Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter: "A report just out from the Center for Policy Analysis… indicates that state and local pension funds are drastically underfunded..." to the tune of $3 trillion!

“That means that in addition to the payments the state and local governments are making now, they’ve got to find another $3 trillion to catch them up so when employees start retiring there’s going to be money there,” he tells Henry in this clip.

There are two major problems with pensions, as far as Mauldin sees it. First, most state law prohibits adjustment of pensions. Taxpayers are completely on the hook. As a result, those funds will be found through higher taxes or reduced services.  Second, “the hole is getting deeper each year.” Most pensions assume they are going to get an 8% return on their investments. “What if instead of getting an 8% return, total returns were 5%? That would mean the hole would be getting deeper by about $75 billion a year,” he writes.

So unless stocks and bonds start earning a hefty return, or state or local governments change the law, Mauldin is right when he says: “It’s going to end in big tears.”

204 comments

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    Patsy Thu Feb 03, 2011 12:05 pm EST Report Abuse
    The problem is that Social Security lets people get disability when they dont need it and they still get out here and work every day as hard as the rest of us. So if their disabled then they should not work and there would be a job for someone who could.But these people want to work and draw disability to. Plus I get so tired of hereing how broke this State is. What do they do with all the money that us tax payers pay. Think about how much tax money goes into this State. If you drive an 18 wheeler you have to pay 550.00 a year in road use tax, look at how many trucks are in this State also they pay advalorem tax on truck and trailer. Not counting all the taxes that a working person pays School tax, State tax and any other tax. It is all uncalled for. All the road use taxes paid and you cant even drive on our roads. I think these people are putting most of the money in their pockets.Because there is no reason we should be in this shape.
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    SheaK Mon Aug 23, 2010 09:25 am EDT Report Abuse
    Sad - Half to ninety percent of your income is social security?

    The stated goal of social security was to give you 1/6th of what you needed to retire when it was enacted. That means roughly 17%. For the entirety of 75 years that stated goal has never changed, and I bet very few have ever heard that number. That's why so many relied on it to be nearly 100% of their income.

    My heart bleeds for them, but it does not make them any less misinformed - and social security can't even make the current payment level.

    Best save for yourself, and retire yourself. Let government programs help those who are not of able body and mind. The rest of you, including the 83 year olds who have working arms and legs and brains, need to be prepared to handle yourselves.

    Best,

    Shea
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    BigC Mon Aug 23, 2010 02:21 am EDT Report Abuse
    Check out the End the Fed movement, the dvd's The Money Masters and The Secret of Oz, etc. Understanding the process of money creation will help open the eyes of a lot of citizens. And still, do your own research and look for opposing views.
  • 5 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    larryv Fri Aug 20, 2010 04:12 pm EDT Report Abuse
    The good jobs that we have allowed to be shipped out of our country are never coming back.(Thank you, Bill Clinton for NAFTA)
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    Frank N. Blunt Fri Aug 20, 2010 04:46 am EDT Report Abuse
    That is what I mean about just because it is a law doesn't make it right. The fiduciary mismanagement and malfeasance occurring should be absolutely infuriating. The people behind the ideas that their compensation and pension benefits are exclusive and will always increase regardless of the economic climate and conditons of their constituency are very stupid, very irresponsible, and headed toward the danger zone should they continue to be so smug in feeling exclusive and entitled in so being separate from everybody else. They are behaving like those dumb and irresponsible laws are supposed to protect their pillaging and plundering like it is granted by divine right.
    The citizens won't put up with the idea that though civic infrastructure will suffer, public services become absent from operations, and government disregards revenue as it exists for its own sake while they will have to basically support the lavish excesses of people obviously abusing their positions if not being very stupid by causing the situation and ignoring the reality. Nobody should consent to any government that would dare to indenture the citizens and would dare to put their debts upon the backs of others especially the future citizens that are our children.
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    Stephen Thu Aug 19, 2010 12:40 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Social security is in trouble because it is managed as a regressive tax on the poor and middle class. The fix for social security is very simple and fair. That is for everyone to pay the same social security witholding rate on their ENTIRE pre-tax income. Everyone. As currently implemented, only about the first $120K in income is taxed. This means that billionaires pay, essentially, nothing for the privilege of living in a civilized society.

    If I am willing to pay over 10% of my income to live in a civilized society, knowing I will not get all of that back in benefits, then so can Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and all the fat cat Wall Street CEOs. If everyone paid the same flat rate, the rate could probably be lowered on everyone with no ill effects. But no, the rich get off scott free and, surprise, there are problems.

    Social security is not an investment. It is the price of living in a first world country where you do not need an armed convoy to drive around in your Mercedes or wear jewelry in public.
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    Back2Reality Thu Aug 19, 2010 12:39 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Ronald,

    You are basically saying that we should use terminal cancer to cure AIDS. Anyone can succede, all they have to do is actually try. I am sorry that the whole responsibility thing makes you mad, but this is true. Able bodied people should be expected to take care of themselves. Anyone can save for retirement. Anyone can make a good living. All it takes is a little effort. If a perfectly able bodied individual is not responsible for themselves, then why should I be responsible for them. I choose to pick my own charities where I can actually help people in need, not just the lazy and unprepared.

    Another way the democrats horrible policies are destroying this country. Social Security is crashing down and because of it people simply do no save for retirement any more. They forced banks to make bad loans so those that did save lose their retirement, now the democrats want to tax the hell out of everything we do make, and the overpowerful public unions are shackleing us. Why do the democrats have any credibility at all? That's right, they are buying it by destroying the country. Vote these clowns out.
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    nobody Thu Aug 19, 2010 12:21 pm EDT Report Abuse
    CEO's have been collecting millions or hundreds of millions in pension money and no one blinks. Let the poor man who works 35 years for pennies want a pension and the world gasps. Sounds like we need another REVOLUTION. Communism doesn't sound any worse than what you're offering.
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    TheDon Wed Aug 18, 2010 02:22 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Social Security is nothing more then a ponzi scheme, It would be illeagle if anybody but the goverment tried to do it.
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    Charles Wed Aug 18, 2010 11:01 am EDT Report Abuse
    They have been raiding the fund @ we have let them.Sooo we are under funded SUPRISE SUPRISE sheep being led to the poor house VOTE THE BUMS OUT

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