What's your mood on the economy these days?
Take jobs: Are you feeling better about job growth after private employers added more jobs than expected in August -- or worse because the unemployment rate actually went up from 9.5% to 9.6%?
How about GDP? Are you doing worse after a revised report of GDP showed growth slip in the second quarter from 2.4% to 1.6% -- or better because all major areas of demand actually moved slightly higher?
New GDP forecasts for the rest of this year and next may swing your mood yet again. A panel of 50 economists cut GDP expatiations -- for the third month in a row -- for the rest of this year and next.
This is no ordinary recession like so many would have you believe, says Scott Bleier of Create Capital. It is time to "get real" and stop believing all the "catch phrases."
"There is no 'double-dip,' there are no 'green shoots,' there was no recovery," he says. "There are simply segmented pieces of the economy muddling along and getting better or staying the same."
Bleier argues that there was no recovery in the first place to "dip" from.
"When we function based on what the market is doing, the market dictates our economic mood," says Bleier. "The stock market dictates consumer spending, the stock market dictates where economists come on TV and say where the markets are going."
If it is time to "get real" as Bleier says, what needs to be done?
He says we have to address what got us into this crisis in the first place, which is a nation overly leveraged in the real estate market. Banks are brimming with toxic assets, and until those are completely written off -- not "papered over" -- the U.S. won't see a recovery, he believes.
Another reality check: Near 0% interest rates are destroying and "stealing" the wealth of this county, Bleier says. "We cannot pay the bills because a lot of the bills are paid with the interest [of investments]. We are eating the principal going on two years now."
As long as we live in a credit-contracting environment, Bleier says the wealth of our nation is at risk.
"The fixing is going to be a process, but if you start it, the market will then look past all of the anxiety as we go through it," he says.
For better, or worse, we are in this together. Do you agree it's time to "get real"?
Tell us your thoughts!
___
Follow Yahoo! Finance on
Twitter; become a fan on
Facebook.
To a Yahoo User below,
I agree with you that we haven't yet found the economic bottom, because the deficit is temporarily supporting about 10-15 mllion jobs. Wthout other actions regarding trade and taxes, the unemplyment rate will jump 10% when bottom is reached, when the deifict ends, and much of the American middle class will be destroyed. Then equilibrium will be reached, and unemployement will be 20%, but we will be living in an oligarchy on the way to anarchy, facism, or communism.
Finally someone gets it right and tells it like it is! This is Japan; those of us who aren't Wall Street shills or political hoes have been saying that for two years. No one listened. The Congressfools kept playing ostrich. The Fed, a conspiracy of bankers and brokers, has been playing the same stupid game. Let them fail!!!
Overall He is correct about the economy. But after saying that I think he is wrong about the stock market. It does not dictate us. It is only a side show. It is not for us. It is for them! I am sure the money managers love to make the stock market so important, for its more money for them.
Yes we are deflating but commodities will go through the roof.
It may hyper inflate commodities and shut down its whole economy. So this is how hyperinflation will happen?
With the Fed eprinting of unlimited money.
This will cause money managers to pull there money out of treasuries and will seek security. This security will be commodities. Any thing that you and I really need everyday.
Oil gas wheat coffee sugar ect. These commodities will be bid ask up to unbelievable prices. You , I and industry will have to buy at these prices. It will shut down business for they cant pass on cost, now you know the " Rest of the story"
Helga, love what you did with your hair. Hi also to cal blonde and the rest of you. Have not had time to visit these days. In spite of the gov I am building a new company. There never was a recovery, so there cannot be another dip, it is the same old dip. If there is a silver lining, maybe people will stop watching TV and get out and build something. Get it together people. What we do now will help after 2012 is over.
When the Gov't finally lets the economy bottom w/o "incentives or stimulus" we will finally discover the real economy and this we need to do ! No more stimulus and free hand outs - let people move in with their family and neighbors, Then and only then will we find an economic bottom. !! Pete
Go Scott go!
This guy knows what he's talking about! Excellent commentary!
Technology is leading us to a point where a few very wealthy Americans and foreigners, owning the highly productive businesses, based mostly in China or third world countries with $1.50 per hour wages, will produce all the most important things that the US population needs. Only a very few American employees will be needed for things like distribution, sales, and marketing. So technology coupled with free-trade agreements will continue to greatly reduce the demand for US labor, which means that a very small number of Americans will need to be employed, and unemployment will skyrocket as the middle class is destroyed because it’s labor is no longer required.
To avoid this apocalyptic scenario, the US must now end or amend all trade agreements so that total imports and exports are balanced, greatly increase taxes on the wealthy to hinder the stranglehold accumulation of wealth by a very small percentage of the population, shorten the work week and increase mandatory employee vacation time to spread the demand for labor to a larger percentage of the population, and increase the minimum wage. Hopefully, these steps will preserve the American middle class and eliminate the need for more extreme measures.
I agree with Terry. And I loved the interview with Scott Blier!
***Government Debt Does Not Equal Responsibility***
Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data, daily updates, fund summary, fund performance, dividend data and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.