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Four Reasons to Root for Higher Interest Rates

Posted Mar 04, 2010 09:00am EST by Aaron Task
With the Fed having raised its discount rate and Fed officials talking "exit strategy" seemingly at every turn, investors worldwide are bracing for higher interest rates.

But there's an upside to higher rates, says John Lekas, senior portfolio manager of the Leader Short-Term Bond Fund, which has about $320 million of assets under management:

  • --Boost the Buck: "If we didn't have [problems in] Europe the dollar would probably be headed a lot lower here and cause things like inflation," Lekas says. Higher short-term rates will help increase the dollar's appeal, especially relative to currencies in nations where key lending rates aren't stuck at zero.
  • --Reward Savings: "Unfortunately a lot of your viewers were forced into the capital markets because they can't earn any money in a money market," Lekas says in the accompanying clip. "A lot of those people should not be in the capital markets. We think it's a very dangerous place to be." Raising short-term rates will encourage people to save money, which is something our debt-laden society desperately needs.
  • --Curb Speculation: With rates at zero, investors are being encouraged to speculate with borrowed dollars via the so-called carry trade. "When Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates to 1% [and] flooded the system with money, we got the housing bubble," Lekas recalls. "What bubble will we get this time? I don't think there's a free lunch."
  • --Spur Lending: Because they can borrow from the Fed for practically nothing and invest the money in "risk-free" Treasuries yielding over 3%, banks have no incentive to lend right now. "It sounds counterintuitive," Lekas admits, but higher short-term rates will reduce that spread and prod banks to lend capital rather than sit on it, which the economy needs to sustain a recovery.

 Lekas' fund is positioned benefit from higher rates, so he readily admits this is a bit self-serving, but that doesn't mean it won't be good for the rest of us, too.

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