Gary Shilling's 5 Things to Worry About

Does Schilling ever NOT have hershey squirts about the economy?

As an oil and gas buyer for a major electric utility, I recognize his oil price concerns. However, I would add one more concern to the list: a U.S. Federal, State and Local debt / budget crisis. Necessary cut-backs at all levels along with an end to the Fed’s quantitative easing could create a substantial drag on the economy, or alternatively if not addressed could lead to higher inflation, defaults, falling debt values, and a bursting the debt bubble here in the U.S. The need to borrow to rebuild Japan, combined with lower domestic profits (and foreign lending) in China could conspire to nudge these concerns over the edge, as well.

Shilling's argument is very good. I think that it means that we should be careful and buy value and limit our stock ownership. But there doesn't seem to be anything that is better than stocks at this time. He doesn't say what to do with your money.

Gary S is not only brillant, he is a street person with common sense, this country is heading for a disaster,we need to wake up, and start taking control, the average guy, or middle class is in big trouble,need to make some huge changes.

The problem is not Mr. Shilling.He's been on target with financial predictions the majority of the time.Some are calling him an old fool among other things...Well, you just had a Rhodes Scholar, a Yale graduate and a Harvard graduate as presidents.The chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Ben Bernanke is an MIT graduate. The only one who has been close to right on finances is Mr. Shilling --- now who is the 'DUMB A$$'????

Schilling is right........
What are you folks who are reading this eager to invest in?
.......Nothing ,Huh?......guess he is right after all...

The dollar is just waiting on congress. The dollar has no idea that congress is about to save it.

Cost of gas is just too high?
Radiation, in the sky?
Another war they call 'no fly'?
Don't worry, be happy.

Yen's too high and the Euro's gone?
China's making a new red dawn,
You hide inside with the curtains drawn?
Don't worry, be happy!

See how you have to keep the good news coming each and everyday for the market to hold up here? Yesterday we had the AT&T news. But this type of news has to continue on a daily basis. There's alot of disasterous news out there, but most have chosen to ignore, like the passengers on the fateful ship "TITANIC". The well to do gentlemen were in their smoking jackets enjoying a cigar, as she sank. Bands played on deck as they waited on their rescue ship. As soon as the AT&T news was announced the market never looked back. You see we're conditioned, and our leadership knows we are. We know when we hear the word MERGER to buy buy buy. NOW WHAT?

What does the market see looking forward? It see's the IMF warning America to get her federal deficit in order. It don't see a QE3. The market sees any further continuation to purchase treasury bonds by the fed as overkill. Commoditity prices will rise more and joke the very weak recovery we did have. We see economic data continue to worsen. We're at the end of our road to financial suicide, and about to make a sharp U Turn towards the road called "recovery". The market has not priced any of this in yet. It also has not priced in what congress is meeting on, which could be a shocker to all.

Over the years we've always depended on our government to engineer a recovery for us, now it's time to pay the piper. With all of this priced in I expect the Dow to head below the March 2009 lows. Up until the time that all of this news is released though I imagine they'll try to take the market higher. Becasue you want to have as many suckers pulled in as you can. But to do so, they have to have more of this psycholgy news that makes us jump. Mergers, IPO's, What Warren Buffet is buying, Obama, Ben, and Tim Speeches, or Steve Jobs returning to work.

This is all old hat but many of these issues have not been debunked. Japan is one of two major competitors. What weakens it benefits our large caps. It buys food from us and will continue eating. Housing is fully priced in. So is the slow down in Chinas growth. We should have 5 to 6 per cent growth. No one is talking about an Arab oil embargo. They resulted from political contexts unique to their times that do not obtain now. Europe. The EU was supposed to collapse last April. The PIIG debt is the Reichs problem and not ours and again what weakens the Reich benefits our large caps. The EU only consumes 15% of our exports but is our biggest competitor. Siemens/ GE, VW/ GM, Merck/ Pfeizer, Dupont/ Farben. The truth is that forward P/ Es are low, the dollar is cheap and global growth is at 7.8%. I ain't sellin. Blue skies are smiling, my homies.