Housing 'Recovery' a Mirage: Short Homebuilders, Glenn Tongue Says

The American population minus immigration is shrinking. A nation that stops the birth of its children will not grow. More and more homes will go vacant.

Less jobs make more multi-family dwellings...

Larger families can make larger payments...

Average incomes of those currently employed are rising...

Construction workers are desperate for a job, charging less...

Families can now afford a new home in the neighborhood they always wanted at a fraction of the cost. Housing sales will rise particularly for multi-family homes, a market that has be slow in the past will now the the new norm... I'm now a bull for housing and have fully recovered from all my losses!

Homebuilding was a great employment vehicle during the bubble. Big money and little money are being hurt by the crash. Big money talks in Washington, hence the strenuous efforts at stimulus and the great giveaway at the Fed with a fed funds rate essentially zero.

Mr. Tongue is totally correct. Housing was massively overbuilt during the bubble. Those houses, condos, timeshares, etc. are material assets with no utility except to house people who cannot (or will not) pay for them. Homebuilding will be a marginal business at best for at least a decade, maybe more. We do not need to throw good money after bad by trying to pump up housing valuations. Eventually population growth will absorb the excess inventory. In the meantime, we must move on to other employment endeavors and get this country back on track to financial stability. Otherwise, the next generation (my grandchildren) face an unnecessarily constrained future in a dog eat dog world.

There is always a calm before the storm. Always. October will be a doozy. ;-)

The Obama Presidency is like watching sheep being led to the fleecing pen ...

this tongue dude looks alot like the late david carradine sporting a cheap suit and a 5.00 dollar haircut........you seem like a good guy there glenn.....when you can snatch the pebble from hand, grasshoppa, it will be time to sell your stocks.

"with only massive government subsidies for housing"
@#$% is this guy talking about ???
Isn't Section 8 good enough ???

His discussion regarding the overwhelming complications regarding a reset of principal loan balances when considering 1st's, 2nd's & securitized holders was succinct & insightful.

The time horizon required for aggregate personal & corporate deleveraging is the clear-cut delaying factor for this recovery compared to past recessions. Reported increases in aggregate savings plus debt reduction are dead-on for a brighter future...it's just that debt reduction is such a non-productive source of capital. There's just no way around this...save time.

This guy's very smart - good choice for an interview.

The banks & lenders will use your TAX-Dollars to leverage you out of your underwater home period. They have the Gov. back stop Timmy Boy & Miss Blair you will loose, that was the plan!
It's all about greed!

This is the prime example of what is wrong with America. Why do we have to step on someones back when they are alread down? These guys are shorting companies and taking them down, we need regulations to stop the shorting of hard working people investments.