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In World Without Growth, Buy "Water, Food and Warmth," Chris Martenson Says

Posted Oct 14, 2010 10:44am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Commodities

Growth is a thing of the past, or soon will be, says economic researcher Chris Martenson

Why?

Production of conventional oil (i.e. easy to exploit) peaked in 2005, Martenson says, expressing a firm belief that 'peak oil' is fact, not theory. (Definition: when the maximum rate of oil extraction is reached, production then enters terminal decline).  The rest of the harder-to-find oil will peak in the next one-to-five years, he says. “Economically speaking [that's] a blink of an eye.”

If the world can't meet it's energy demands, “growth might be something we factor out of our equations,” Martenson warns.

This is a HUGE problem for the U.S. and the rest of the world, including the pre-ordained next economic super power, China.  The International Energy Agency says China is the largest energy consumer in the world.  Martenson believes that's only going to increase as “China’s internal demand is coming on like gangbusters."

Uh, oh.

What's an investor to do in a world without growth?

Buy the essentials:  Martenson recommends "water, food and warmth." (See: Buy "Things" Not "Paper": Chris Martenson's Case for Commodities)

It's a simple premise but not so easy to put in to practice, he admits.  One can buy commodity ETFs but “they tend to get front run by the professional commodity traders,” he says, further noting there are few vehicles focused on directly buying farmland. 

We can hear Jim Rogers now... 

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69 comments

  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Sun Oct 17, 2010 11:30 am EDT Report Abuse
    Here's the short version of what's happening and what's finna happen. QE 2 will devalue the dollar as much as necessay to avoid deflation.5%? 50%? Who knows? The 11% devaluation since June gave us a 1% uptick that was gone in a couple weeks. We are back at1% , which is dangerously near deflation. I'm optimistic that we will not have deflation , which could lead to another recession or worse. I predict that we will have a burst of inflation next year and that the dollar will drop at least another 5%. This will be good for exports. Germany exported a third of its GDP for decades and is probably near 50% now. It was at 40% in January and its economy has surged this year. This sun is smiling on us. I predict the 50% that the S&P500 earn abroad will become 66% of total revenues next year. Many large caps, as a result of these two factors, should be worth 50% more by 2012. I just bought Exom. The domestic economy will continue to grow. Don't believe the boo about the banks. The Fed has shown that they will subsidise the banks. Note that all roads seem to lead to inflation. Believe me if the Fed has to devalue the dollar 90% to avoid deflation it will. I don't see more than 5%. The other big positive that absolutely no one else is talking about is the underground economy. It used to be estimated at 30% of the reported economy, but that was before the Net and 17% unemployment. They are being forced into the underworld of illegals, working off the books, flea market/garage sale nation, sex drugs and rock and roll. There has alway been tax evasion. The 17% have to eat. Add another 4 trillion to the reported GDP-5 trillion next year. This helps to explain the stellar corporate earnings we had had for the last 9 quarters, right thru the most severe recession in 80 years. Blue skies are smiling and I'm buying equities.
  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Sat Oct 16, 2010 12:00 am EDT Report Abuse
    The Germans ran their war machine with synthetic fuel made from their own coal. We have more coal in Pa than all of Western Europe. We can make it cleaner. We won't run out of energy. We can supply all our electrical needs with atomic energy. I'm more worried about QE2. The Fed may have to devalue the dollar another 11% to prevent deflation. This may result in a burst of inflation not too far down the road.Get out of cash.
  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Fri Oct 15, 2010 08:14 am EDT Report Abuse
    Second paragraph: "its", not "it's". Seem to be seeing this mistake more and more.
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 2 users disliked this comment
    Johnny Randal Fri Oct 15, 2010 02:03 am EDT Report Abuse
    There is a growth but slow slot but sure.........More Patient.............
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    JARAA Fri Oct 15, 2010 01:18 am EDT Report Abuse
    lol "gettin' off the grid"
  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Thu Oct 14, 2010 11:24 pm EDT Report Abuse
    I see a lot of hot chicks walking in the background in Times Square.
  • 1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    bill Thu Oct 14, 2010 10:37 pm EDT Report Abuse
    From an old savvy investor. What you need to buy into is the "tech" stocks that bring efficiency into the commodity (food, water and warmth) stocks. As prices increase for the basic commodities, profits will rise and these same companies will re-invest in technology to gain further efficiencies in the market place. That is where the bulls will profit!
  • 2 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    DTT Thu Oct 14, 2010 10:33 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Without growth we are in very serious trouble. If the presenter is right that means not only will the currently unemployed not find new jobs, but that the technology being introduced and used will destroy even more jobs in the US. As a country we need to decouple and start to produce consumer goods here as we won't have the income to continue buying from China, etc nor will we be able to get goods produced in Asia here cheaply if oil increases the transportation costs quickly. The presenter isn't the first serious person to suggest farming as a new "growth" job area. A lot of us are into local, seasonal and sustainable just because it tastes better, it may really be for survival in the not to distant future. Good farm land already is not cheap. Something to think about.
  • 6 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 8 users disliked this comment
    Flyer1 Thu Oct 14, 2010 09:50 pm EDT Report Abuse
    We do not need gasoline to run our cars.
    If we ran out of gas tomorrow we would find an alternative so fast it would make your head spin. Leave the enginieering to engineers and finance to the crooks.
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 2 users disliked this comment
    Hopiex1 Thu Oct 14, 2010 09:19 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Buy, baby, buy!

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