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Michael Pento Favors Depression vs. More Stimulus: Dan Greenhaus Can't Believe It

Posted Aug 12, 2010 10:08am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession, Banking, Politics

The economic recovery “has slowed” the Federal Reserve said in its latest statement.  Job creation remains anemic, foreclosures are on the rise and the threat of deflation is front and center.

What can the Fed and/or the U.S. Government do to improve the outlook?  Will further stimulus help or hinder economic growth?

Michael Pento, senior economist at Euro Pacific Capital, and Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist with Miller Tabak, debate the issues in this clip. 

Pento, a follower of the Austrian school of economics, believes more government intervention will only worsen the situation.  Greenhaus, more of a centrist, believes government must fill the void in times of weakness, like these.

Rather than add our commentary we’ll let them do the speaking.   Here are some excerpts from the impassioned discussion.

On Government stimulus:

Greenhaus: “It’s simply false to suggest the government cannot impact broader economic activity. That is not born through history. The two greatest expansions since 1900 have been largely on the back of government spending (and) infrastructure spending.”

Pento: “The government can have only a negative effect on the economy. Government is vacuous entity...We should cut taxes aggressively and cut spending aggressively. To make impotent the government and give the private sector and the free market as much power as possible so we can grow our way to of this fiscal mess as soon as possible while we strengthen our currency.”  

On Government borrowing:

Greenhaus: “We have no problem in the bond market we have no problem with interest rate… the government can get away with it right now.”

Pento: “Do you want to wait until have a bond market or dollar crisis?”  “What are you going to do if interest rates start to soar? What are you going to do if the dollar starts to plummet?”

Another Depression

Pento: The economy needs to go through a “severe, hopefully truncated, depression. Have it now, have it in the safest and quickest fashion so you can get onto a real and viable recovery.””

“What I really want is an abbreviated period of reconciliation where the consumer pays down their debt.” 

“Healing is sometimes very painful in the short run.”

Greenhaus: “He’s voting for a depression! The idea that somehow a depression should be encouraged” is wrong.

So, which side of the debate are you on? Let us know in the comment section below.

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239 comments

  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    JackdaRippa_laundryman Mon Aug 23, 2010 10:16 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Obama used $875Billion to create 2,000,000 jobs, mostly in the government sector. How wonderful for those who got the jobs. thats $437500/job, and it leaves another 5.5 million still without jobs and hits us all with debt that our children and our grand children will not be able to repay. he could have given every one of the 6.75 million unemployed people in the country $120K to spend however they liked. this would have boosted the economy more than his Facistic approach of helping the rich banks and dumping on the rest of us. what was he thinking?
  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Sun Aug 22, 2010 08:37 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Depression is not a good option. For those of you too young to know the facts let me share my personal knowledge of it as told by my mother.
    First ( and most dangerous ): The government shuttered the banks - even if you had money to ride it out suddenly you did'nt. My mom remembered the day the bank closed. My grandma had just made a solid deposit. ( the family businesses were good ) Later that afternoon the bank president showed up at their home and began sobbing and begging for foregiveness but explained he was threatened with his life if he forewarned ANYONE of the impending closure. The government ultimately repaid only a fraction of the money grabbed.
    Next, bartering was just about the only currency. Chickens for feed that type of things.
    It was not a pleasant story. For some (and I'm sure many angry Yahoo commentors ) this idea sounds like a good idea to redistribute wealth .... but keep this in mind...... the entity receiving the wealth was not the poor family down the street but the federal government. God bless us all.
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    womanstruth Sun Aug 22, 2010 06:07 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Australia is the only westernized nation to avoid recession. They were not in heavy debt (like our war debt) when it began, and they used STIMULUS to stay out of recession. The free market (no regulation, not enough taxes) is precisely what got us into this mess to begin with. Allowing a depression will seal our fate as a "has been empire." I feel we actually need to start redistributing wealth through taxing the top ten percent of the population and using the money to create jobs that rebuild infrastructure and start new industries for the future. There is not one successful industry (oil, agriculture, etc) in our country that did not begin with govt incentives. Know your history!
  • 1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Fun City Sun Aug 22, 2010 02:48 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Why am I getting a virus alert on this page?
  • 1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Tom Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:24 am EDT Report Abuse
    Until drastic changes to the political environment are made we will never get out of this mess. I am talking of a complete overahall of how the federal establishment works starting with getting rid of the self serving senate and house members. The vast majority of congressional members are there to feed off the good will and blind stupidity of we Americans and not to do the job the position is intended. You people who vehemently support a particular "party" are helping them in their selfish cause to serve only themselves at your expense as well as the rest of us. Get off that mentallity and look at the individual regardless of his/her club membership. Put the words greed, corruption, selfishness, qualified, honest, and CAPABLE back into your vocabulary and use them when you are thinking about voting (you do vote?). After a person gets into office and turns into the typical vermin we have now his district people should start the procedure to get "it" out of office. PERIOD! Most times when an employee, and don't forget those people we elect (hire) to do a particular job are our employees, go sour they are fired. This political system has become a ridiculous joke. We vote (hire) people to do a job and they then, in turn, become our bosses. How stupid is that? Most of them live in such arrogance and have developed an attitude, with our help, that they will not/cannot be held accountable. What sense does it make for me to campaign against you, bring up questions about your ability and character and then, when you win, become your buddy and be given a very important position in your club?? Or, how much sense does it make for someone trying to win a very important position in the country to pick, as a running mate, an almost totally unknown person with little investigation to ability, knowledge and integrity?
    Payoffs and very questionable decisions seem to be the norm in politics. Why do we put up will all this so obvious and blatant dis regard for the rights, priviledges and respect for ourselves, our families, neighbors and friends that we are naturally entitled to?
    Why do we not respect ourselves?
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    tree top Sat Aug 21, 2010 12:54 pm EDT Report Abuse
    way to go george. mission obviously accomplished. you'll go down in history with all the great idiots that brought down there civilization's
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Sparky P Sat Aug 21, 2010 09:15 am EDT Report Abuse
    Pento's right. With government intervention we get a "L" shape recovery, Without government intervention we get a "V" shape. Pento gets it. We would already be in a recovery if Congress and the Fed hadn't decided to interfere in the economy.
  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Fri Aug 20, 2010 05:44 pm EDT Report Abuse
    I think either way a depression is the most likely outcome--sooner or later. Either we have it now or we postpone it for another two years and pray for a "game changer" (ie. the next Internet) to come along in the interim and save us. And that would be my choice.

    What gets me is the commentary from the Peanut Gallery. I had the priviledge of growing up with my grandparents and great grandparents and I heard many times what the Great Depression was actually like. If you think we should "bring it on," I'd recommend you think again. The only people that think this way are those that believe they will be somehow spared of it. And no one will be spared.

    Consider what people today are like as opposed to the 1930s. Are they more violent, more angry? More of a sense of entitlement? Do they own more guns? Now, assume they lose everything. What do they do when their kids are hungry and they have nothing to lose? What would YOU do?

    No one will be spared in a depression today.
  • 3 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Jose M Fri Aug 20, 2010 11:12 am EDT Report Abuse
    WOW!
    Depression is a good idea? A depression by definition will mean everyone and I mean everyone will suffer. "we have always been financially responsible, we'll be OK" well what about your family, friends and neighbors. Don't you think if a depression happens unemployment will get worse no one will buy anything, all your WMT, PG, JNJ and other bullshit stocks will go right in the crapper. Gold will not save you.
    What our country and economy needs is to get rid of all the nay sayers, it is unAmerican to want our great nation to fail. It is unAmerican to want our president and government to fail because if they fail then the country fails. If you don't like our government vote them out come November.
    That's the same mentality as someone who did not know anyone who was killed in the 9/11 bombings saying "what's the big deal I'm ok "I" didn't get hurt why all the outrage and anger?
  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Thu Aug 19, 2010 01:40 pm EDT Report Abuse
    I support deflation. The artificial rise in asset prices need correction. All that stimulus is doing is trying to keep them at artificially high levels, just so businesses can sustain and be solvent. But govt cannot provide stimulus for ever. The reality will eventually catch up. Prices and wages have to go down across the board. That will hopefully regain Dollar's "Perceived value" in the world. Honestly thats what it is.
    Vote for Pento.

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