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Obama Falls Short; Gary Shilling Sees 10 Years of Low Growth + Rising Unemployment

Posted Aug 12, 2010 11:30am EDT by Aaron Task

A new WSJ/NBC poll shows 64% of Americans believe the economy hasn't hit bottom, up from 53% in January. And about two-thirds say President Obama has fallen short on handling the economy and the budget deficit.

Obama's "big mistake was over-promising in a situation where it was very difficult for anyone to deliver," says Gary Shillling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co.

"They obviously didn't understand the depth of the problem," he said, referring to the administration's promise in 2009 that unemployment would peak at 8% if the $787 billion stimulus package was passed.

The real problem, Shilling says, is the deleveraging process. Given the decades it took for the leverage to build up, it's folly to think the deleveraging process can be quick and painless, he says. "It isn't just that 2008 was a bad dream from which we've awoken and it's back to business as usual."

Indeed, Shilling says Americans are right to believe the economy hasn't bottomed yet; in fact, he says we're just at the beginning of a prolonged period of economic malaise.

Shilling's forecast is that U.S. GDP growth will average just 2% for the next 10 years. That isn't terrible but is a long way from the 3.3% growth he says is necessary to keep the unemployment rate steady.

As a result, he expects the pressure to increasingly mount on politicians to do "something" to fight joblessness. The problem, however, is "push is coming to shove in the sense of the political need for stimulus compared to the size of the deficit," Shilling says. "I think they've reached a Mexican standoff" in Washington.

For more on this debate, see: Michael Pento Says a Short Depression Beats More Stimulus: Dan Greenhaus Disagrees

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248 comments

  • 1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Humpty Sun Sep 12, 2010 02:03 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Amazing that most Americans want to blame either former President Bush and/or President Omaba. The problem originated on former President Clinton's watch with the passage of Financial Futures Modernization Act of 1999. The act was formerly known by it's authors by Senator's Grahm, Bliley and Leach and essential repealed the 1932 Glass Steagall Act of 1932 which separated commercial and investment banking.

    Then a year later; the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 repealed the 1907 law banning Credit Default Swaps (CDS) which resulted in big brokerage houses creating the mess that ensued through packaging Collaterlized Debt Obligations (CDO's) in which Bears and Stern's Ira Wagner used the vehicle in his ill-fated business plan to shove all of those worthless sub-prime mortgages for sale on Wall Street.

    Democrats and Republicans let this travesty occur with the American's fighting over whether it was either President Bush's or Obama's fault.

    The latter two allowed this folley to continue and manifest itself into the current esconomic mess...but it was a Democratic President (Clinton) and Republican Congress (Sen.'s Grahm, Bliley and Leach) that perpetrated and approved the above Act's into law; thereby starting the sequence of events that led to the current financial mess.

    Wake up America; this was done with both parties approval!

    Right your representative and let them know that you're not falling for the respective parties rhetoric and status quo. If you want the economy to improve and America's financial system to return to normal; stop fighting amongst yourselves.

    Solve the problem by living in the solution!
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Free Will Fri Aug 20, 2010 07:11 pm EDT Report Abuse
    This guy is a fraud. He an analysis and forecast that missed the recession coming and is missing the growth coming. He narcissistic and into saying his bad advice is still good in the mist of the worst economy since the great depression. What he needs to do is to grow a pair of balls and be a man about his inability to be honest with himself about the economy. Just another forecaster thinking that should not be held accountability for leading his clients into the whole of economic ruin.
  • 1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    HungLongWang Fri Aug 20, 2010 03:19 pm EDT Report Abuse
    When things goes bad...everyone blames the politians!
    When things are good, no politians ever get credit until they're dead! People of this country should just work longer, harder and smarter. Spend within your means and start saving more money. Stop pointing fingers and start asking urself what you can do to make it better! Stop thinking America is the best...that is when we can start building a better America!
  • 2 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 2 users disliked this comment
    Steve Mon Aug 16, 2010 08:46 am EDT Report Abuse
    Amazing how people forget about the final dose of gasoline thrown on this fire. If reactionary GWBush had just swallowed the pill on 9/11 and accepted that it was payback to America for the death and terror we have caused in other parts of the world over the decades, everything would have been fine. Granted a slow economy, but no disaster. Instead we had a Fed that was essentially run by politicians, Greenspan has admitted as much. (What he hasn't discussed is how he is in the pockets of one of the men who most profited from the policies Greenspan implemented). Anyway Bin Laden must be laughing in his bunker now knowing that in spite of all our power and brains, he's going to get the last laugh.
  • 2 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    Case Sun Aug 15, 2010 12:43 am EDT Report Abuse
    Who do you think ran away with all the money? Were they average Americans? Or, were they the Fat Cats at the top of each corporation or bank? Do you think they were Democrats? I think the answers are obvious, but maybe not to some, who may still believe Ken Lay and his ilk were just misled by Americans on welfare.
  • 5 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 3 users disliked this comment
    imhoffmaniii Sat Aug 14, 2010 12:46 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Democrats don't care about the people. Many of them are millionaires - Kerry, Clinton, Kennedys, Pelosi, etc. - and have no concept of being 'people' or just use the political system for their own personal advantage - Rangel, Waters. They all just use taxpayer money to buy votes by giving out entitlements to the 'people' and act like they care. Voting for Dems because you think they care about little people is a sure ticket to bankruptcy for the US. And the social welfare programs the Dems created and vehemently support - Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare - cost vastly more than the wars. Good luck America, we need it.
  • 1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 2 users disliked this comment
    Incisive Rambler Sat Aug 14, 2010 06:34 am EDT Report Abuse
    I like the Democrats because they think about people; I like the Rep in theory because they know how to make the economy work, Democrats seem to be opposed to business. Obama didn't lower taxes and decreased debt. Perhaps we are at the point of no return. Republicans gave us several unnecessary, self-serving wars. It put us over the top and left us broke and with a lost prestige.
    Now it is an issue of budget overruns and who buys our debt?? China. They now have a bigger GNP in dollars than we do. We are a fading power. In ten years we will be a second tier military power and then????
  • 1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 3 users disliked this comment
    Virtue Sat Aug 14, 2010 12:42 am EDT Report Abuse
    We are prisoners to our corrupt political system courtesy of corrupt corporations and their lobbyists. In many ways, Republicans and Democrats are alike although Republicans are at least 3 times worse than Democrats. Republicans are twice as corrupt and only half as smart. One only has to look at the Republican mouthpieces of Sarah Palin and Sharron Angle to realize that Republicans are inept, corrupt, or both. At least Democrats try to help the people. Republicans can only ramble on about how great capitalism is, when in reality, America no longer has capitalism. Due to corporate corruption, America only can boast of corporate cronyism and monopolism, enforced by troops of lobbyists. But you do have a say. Vote out every last corporate lackey (most Republicans, a few democrats) and keep on doing it. Demand term limits. Just like diapers, DIRTY politicians need to be changed often.
  • 2 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 5 users disliked this comment
    Virtue Sat Aug 14, 2010 12:38 am EDT Report Abuse
    Sharron Angle, Jon Kyl, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Mitch McConnell, John Boehner, Joe Barton and the rest of the corrupt Republican cronies should be on trial as American traitors and give them all “Sharron Angle Second Amendment remedies”. None of these corporate lackeys ever worked an honest days work in their life. Sarah Palin could not even finish her term in the cushy Alaska Governor’s office. At the very least, if these confused/corrupt/misguided deceptacons love the ultra-rich and corporate America so much, they should resign their public positions (if not done already) and serve those private interests without pretending to serve the public.
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 2 users disliked this comment
    savdavis Fri Aug 13, 2010 06:32 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Will they run the Facist out,,,,or did you know we were very close to Facism for the years between 2000 and 2008...I am glad you understand the situtation,,,newx time I want you to understand what.....The whole situtation thats what!!!!!!!!

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