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Real "Showdown" Coming Over U.S. Debt Ceiling ... or Just More Political Theater?

Posted Jan 04, 2011 07:00am EST by Aaron Task
The 112th U.S. Congress doesn't convene until Wednesday but the battle lines are already being drawn over a vote on the U.S. debt ceiling, which probably won't happen until March or April.

As the New Year begins, a number of Republicans have stated their opposition to raising the debt ceiling, which currently stands at $14.3 trillion.

"I will not vote for the debt ceiling increase until I see a plan in place that will deal with our long-term debt obligations starting with Social Security," GOP Sen. Lindsay Graham of South Carolina said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press."

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann made similarly themed comments on CBS's "Face the Nation" while South Carolina's Senior Senator Jim DeMint bluntly told the conservative magazine Human Events: "We need to have a showdown at this point that we are not going to increase our debt ceiling anymore."

White House CEA director Austan Goolsbee responded to the rhetoric on ABC's "This Week," saying: "This is not a game. You know, the debt ceiling ... is not something to toy with. If we hit the debt ceiling, that's ... essentially defaulting on our obligations, which is totally unprecedented in American history. The impact on the economy would be catastrophic. I mean, that would be a worse financial economic crisis than anything we saw in 2008."

A U.S. debt default would indeed be a catastrophe for the global economy and financial markets; for that reason, Henry argues the GOP will eventually strike some deal with the White House and vote to raise the debt ceiling.

"It's just theatre," he says in the accompanying video. "There is no way the Republicans are going to veto an increase in the debt ceiling. There is just no way."

History suggests Henry is right and I certainly hope so, given the ramifications of a "no" vote on the debt ceiling. But a few things make me think this more than just theater and far from a sure thing:

  • In 2008, the TARP legislation was initially rejected by the House. Many Republicans (and a few Democrats) probably wish they'd stuck to their guns rather than changing course after the Dow tumbled and TARP came up for a second vote.
  • Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin recently warned of a potential "implosion" in the bond market triggered by the debt-ceiling vote. As the ultimate insider, Rubin presumably has better information on the GOP's thinking on this issue than the rest of us.
  • The passion among Tea Party members about this issue cannot be dismissed or underestimated, certainly not by Tea Party candidates and others who rode their wave into office last fall.

What do you think? Will the Republicans ultimately cave and vote to raise the debt ceiling? Should they?

Aaron Task is the host of Tech Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com

101 comments

  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Fri Jan 14, 2011 04:01 pm EST Report Abuse
    My understanding is we need to issue debt to continue to pay on what we owe. If we dont raise the debt ceiling, ie issue new securities to fund out exisiting debt, how are we going to pay our existing debt then? If any investor gets any sort hint that we cant pay our debt the US goverment debt will no longer be risk free, therefore investors will require a hugh premium in order for us to borrow from them. I am all for walking away, but I still dont understand how we are going to pay the exisisting debt we owe do you follow. Are federal workers and the army suppose to show up for free or does that come out of another pool?
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 3 users disliked this comment
    John B Wed Jan 05, 2011 01:25 am EST Report Abuse
    People that say that not raising the debt ceiling will result in default are either confused or trying to scare you.

    Even if the debt ceiling is not raised, the U.S. will continue to pay its debt.
  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Tue Jan 04, 2011 06:20 pm EST Report Abuse
    The media is eager for Republicans to be good little politicians and vote up the debt ceiling. At what point do we say ENOUGH? If not now, when? What is our exit strategy for 14 trillion in debt?
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    objectivist Tue Jan 04, 2011 04:06 pm EST Report Abuse
    "If we hit the debt ceiling, that's ... essentially defaulting on our obligations..." Essential default is not actual default. It only becomes default if the liabilities are not paid when due. As long as the debt ceiling is not reduced, all that will be required is that cash outflows (including paying the interest on maturing liabilities) match cash inflows. The total amount of liabilities on the balance sheet can be maintained but not increased.
  • 3 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Barry Tue Jan 04, 2011 03:57 pm EST Report Abuse
    does anyone seriously believe that we AREN'T going to default at some point?

    if you don't; if you believe 14 trillion is just big and not already too big, i am very interested in opinions of the trillion dollars debt level we have to achieve before EVEN THEY agree it ain't gonna happen.

    do they think we would repay a debt of 50 trillion?? 100 trillion??

    i think alot more people already believe it has gone beyond reach but won't voice the words (because they understand the implications)
  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Tue Jan 04, 2011 03:03 pm EST Report Abuse
    why dont we each get fiscally responsible with our own houses instead of pointing fingers at the congress and senate.the congress and senate should then follow suit by not extending any debt ceiling ever again.we should cut back equally in all areas to make sure the checks dont bounce.i would start with the new congress and senates pay and benefits.
  • 2 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Robert W Tue Jan 04, 2011 01:55 pm EST Report Abuse
    The latter. Expect the debt cieling to be raised, but also expect some high profile, (and meaningless) political concessions to be made.
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    MarkM Tue Jan 04, 2011 01:51 pm EST Report Abuse
    This is a complicated issue and both sides have been complacent in their approach to it. How about retarding the advance of debt and raising the debt ceiling just enough to squeak by. If there is little 'wiggle' room for special projects and earmarks then both sides will have to sweat it out over the year.
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Big Duff Tue Jan 04, 2011 01:41 pm EST Report Abuse
    It looks like another raise in the debt ceiling and no way Washington can start fixing the problems now or in the future. I guess it is up to all of us out here in the heather land to finally come up with a solution and buy a few more years of time. Here is my proposal: Each head of household needs to give Washington a blank IOU. check to pay off immediately, one half of the national debt, or a total of 7.5 Trillion dollars. Let's see to cover my three children and 5 grand children, my wife and I, will make my share about 225,000 thousand. This will cover one half of my 45,000 per person obligation. Being retired on fixed income, to come up with this much cash, I will need a little help. The Fed will need to give me a decent window of repayment at about what my present savings gives me or a 2% per year interest rate. Come on you suiters in Washington, join in and help us save the countries economy!
  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Tue Jan 04, 2011 01:19 pm EST Report Abuse
    CurtisH ... HOW did Bush tank the economy? I see a lot of people posting that phrase, but never see the HOW behind it. Bush was President when Congress PASSED the TARP. I also seem to recall that Obama stopped campaigning long enough to come back and vote on the TARP legislation that Congress passed and Bush signed. You should understand how the American Republic works prior to voting. Once you grasp the knowledge, you then become an informed voter as opposed to a blind follower of an ideologue.

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