This week marks the 2-year anniversary of the 2009 stock market bottom, but there's little celebrating among retail investors. General speaking, individual investors fled from the stock market in 2008 and 2009 for the perceived safety of the bond market, a trend which didn't abate until late 2010.
But with yields rising and concerns mounting about budget deficits at all levels of government, the question begs: Are bonds still safe?
If by "bonds" you mean U.S. Treasuries, the answer is a resounding "no", according to Bill Gross, founder and co-CIO of PIMCO, which has about $1.2 trillion of assets under management.
"The Treasury market typifies perhaps the most overvalued area of the bond market," Gross says.
In the accompanying video, Gross discusses the theme of his most recent monthly strategy piece: "Who will buy Treasuries when the Fed doesn't?"
Specifically, Gross worries about the end of the Fed's QE2 program, slated for June 30. "If someone has been buying $1.5 trillion worth of Treasuries and now doesn't buy $1.5 trillion worth of Treasuries, it'll affect yields on the upside."
'D-Day' for Debt
In his recent writings, Gross says June 30 could be "D-Day" for the Treasury market - "a day fraught with hope for victory, but fueled with immediate uncertainty and fear as to what would happen in the short term."
Noting the Fed has bought roughly 70% of Treasuries since QE2 was launched, the so-called Bond King is approaching the end of the program with a sense of foreboding. "Bond yields and stock prices are resting on an artificial foundation of QE II credit that may or may not lead to a successful private market handoff and stability in currency and financial markets," he writes.
Citing the Federal Reserve's own analysis, Gross says QE2 has lowered Treasury yields by at least 0.5% on debts maturing in 5-, 10- and 30-years. Whether rates will rise by that much (or more) when QE2 ends remains to be seen; but Gross doesn't recommend sticking around to find out.
"It becomes a question of musical chairs to a certain extent: who gets out first and who's the last one looking for a chair on June 30," he says.
That said, Gross sees opportunities in other areas of the fixed-income market, which provide what PIMCO calls "safe spread," including: emerging market corporate and sovereigns with higher initial real interest rates and wider credit spreads; floating as opposed to fixed interest rates; and "importantly" denominated in currencies other than the dollar.
Aaron Task is the host of Tech Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com
The biggest problem was dropping interest rates to zero, re-inflating the markets and making the pros dependent on a price-of-money regime that's not sustainable. The market has no underpinning from the real economy and almost none from retail investors. The pros keeping pushing the market up against trading among themselves with zero cost money. Inflation is all around us- food, commodities, energy, construction cost, the money supply, the government sector... You have to be naive to believe the policy makers when they wave around their price indexes that show inflation at like 2%.
I applaud Bill Gross's honesty, just wish guys like Aaron would take notice.
If you want to truly protect yourself from the devastation headed our way read: How to Protect Your Life Savings from Hyperinflation & Depression by author John T. Reed
Treasuries "Most Overvalued" Bonds
The logical extension of this assertion is that the value of Treasuries must fall. The consequence is rising interest rates after the Federal Reserve ceases holding the interest rate curve down. The errosion of bond capital implied by even a fairly small increase in interest rates (and fal in values) is enormous, something like the bursting of a Treasuries bubble.
Consider at the current low interest rates, fairly small changes in interest rates sould result in a fairly large loss of value. If the hypothetical 0.5% impact of QE2 mentioned in teh article comes to fruition, then one might reasonably expect bond values to fall by 10-15%! The 'leverage' built into today's low interest rates is staggering. We saw the upside in 2008-2009 when bond funds easily earned 25% year over year. Reverse the cycle and bond prices fall by a similar amount. That is the nature of debt instruments. The fall may be great. Like he says, it may be time to get out a little early while there is still some value left?
SILVER SILVER SILVER is one way trade your paper and buy $1000.00 bags of pre 1964 coins and 100 oz bars
Readers....
Once QE2 is over and done with, please....there is nothing to fear or worry about....
They will launch QE3 in all its worthless glory.
Bernank's plunge teams are really hitting it with all they got, that new huge 2 Billion gallon per minute Bilge pump has got the water below the boilers, Pimco's Gross say's bad stuff about bonds and now he is a know nothing according to Bubble Vision talking heads
Using debt as money always ends badly. The US Federal Reserve Note is a debt note, not real silver money. A bond is a debt note not money. Credit cards are not money and are evil, harming people. Debt is an addictive drug, fun now but bad when the high ends. Expenses have to be cut willingly or by force.
Somehow, somewhere, the system must default and cleanse itself. This should happen with a 1:1 gold ounce to Dow Jones index ratio as it did in 1980 at $850 gold and less than $850 Dow.
If history repeats we will see $4,000 an ounce gold and $4,000 Dow Jones index to cleanse people out of risk and debt. It could even go back to $600 Dow which is the current price of the Dow in real 1963 silver coins. Price reality in real silver money to find real value today.
In real 1963 US silver money the Dow is $600, house is $8,000, and gasoline is cheaper now than in 1963 at 20 cents a gallon, or two silver dimes from 1963. The US Federal Reserve bank is a private, secret, foreign owned bank charter that has a plan to destroy the United States the way wolves eat sheep.
Default on debt. End the Fed. Restructure. Will we? Maybe, but it will have to be forced on politicians. We are in deep trouble going forward due to lazy baby boomers living on debt. Good luck to us all. The children will suffer badly. So will seniors. Those with real jobs, real skills, will always do okay.
Bernanke and Obama have put themselves between a rock and a hard place. If QE stops and is unwound, interest rates will skyrocket and more of the federal budget will be committed to debt servicing. If QE continues, investors will lose faith in these two and abandon investments denominated in US dollars. This summer will be interesting.
Bill Gross is a great guy! One of the most honest investors and straight talker.
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