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"Waves of More Foreclosures" = More Bank Failures + Big Trouble for the FDIC, Suttmeier Says

Posted Aug 11, 2010 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession, Banking

The U.S. housing market continues to send mix signals.  More homes continue to enter foreclosure but the number of homeowners carrying so-called “under water mortgages,” declined in the second quarter, Zillow.com reported Monday

21.5% of homeowners owed more on their mortgage than their home was worth in the second quarter, that’s down from 23.3% in the first quarter and 23% a year ago.

“There are a lot homes caught up in mortgage modifications,” explains Richard Suttmeier of ValuEngine.com, which he says results in a temporary stability in home prices.  The key word: temporary. 

“There’s waves of more foreclosures coming in the housing market because very few of the HAMP modifications are becoming permanent,” he says.

Meanwhile, the backdoor bailout of the housing market continues.  Freddie Mac reported a $4.7 billion second quarter loss Monday and asked the government for another $1.8 billion in aid.  Last week, Fannie Mae - Freddie Mac’s larger counterpart - asked the government for $1.5 billion.  That brings the total tab for the government-sponsored entities to $148 billion.  Suttmeier estimates, Fannie and Freddie, will wind up costing taxpayers at least $400 billion.

All of this housing trouble creates a vicious cycle for the economy, jobs and the fragile banking system, Suttmeier tells Aaron in this clip, predicing another 30% drop in home prices by 2014, as measured by the Case-Shiller Index.

“If you’re not building homes, you’re not creating jobs. Construction is the biggest component of job creation on Main Street USA,” he says. “Community banks can’t lend because they’re stuffed with loans they wrote 2003-2007. They are going bad.”

The 'negative feedback loop’ is going to lead to more bank failures and that leads to another problem – a lack of money in the FDIC Insurance Fund.

"The FDIC Deposit Insurance fund has now been drained by just $1.33 billion so far this quarter bringing the year to date total to $18.93 billion well above the $15.33 billion prepaid assessments for all of 2010,” Suttmeier recently wrote clients.  Ironically, filling that gap will fall on the shoulders of  the ‘Too Big To Fail Banks’ he says.  “Because they can afford it.” 

The big banks can afford it thanks to TARP and other taxpayer subsidies but the rising cost of replenishing the FDIC fund means lower profits for the big banks, which means they'll be even less inclined to lend money to the rest of us, further curtailing economic activity.

Did somebody say "negative feedback loop"?

119 comments

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    John Mon Aug 16, 2010 07:38 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Time is of the essence for a bold new approach to foreclosure mitigation. What is needed is a plan that can be implemented quickly and broadly, lowering the monthly mortgage payment so that homeowners can afford the payments and stay in their house. The plan we are proposing is simple.

    • Years 1-5 rate of 2-3% with interest only option for owner occupied properties.
    Year 6 rate of 3%, Year 7rate of 4% rate and Years 8-30 rate of 5%
    There should be an option for a 40 year amortization program.
    • Non-owner occupied can participate at a 1% higher interest rate.

    An appraisal will establish the property’s present value. That will establish the new “Interest Bearing Principal Balance”. The difference between the loan balance which include loan amount plus arrearages at the time of loan modification is divided equally and 50% are principle forgiveness and the other 50% become noninterest bearing “Deferred Principal Balance” due on sale of the property or in 30 years at loan maturity.
    Let us say we have a 500,000.00 dollar loan with 20,000.00 in arrears and appraised value of 300,000.00. In this scenario 110,000.00 of the loan is forgiven. The bank has 110,000.00 Deferred Principle Balance and 300,000.00 Interest Bearing Principle Balance. It is a win-win situation for everybody.

    We should make this loan modification simple. The individual homeowner should be given more power to decide what program is best for him. Bank personnel and other consumer counseling groups can assist him in his decision.
    We should have no income, asset, housing value or payment history qualification requirements. All residential 1 to 4 unit properties with a loan payment start date of January 1, 2002 and after are eligible, other than VA and FHA loans.

    The benefits of this program are:

    • A simple, standardized program that can be implemented quickly
    • Estimated 60 to 80 percent foreclosure mitigation on current foreclosures
    • Estimated 80 to 90 percent foreclosure mitigation on future foreclosures that will occur with adjustable rate mortgages when interest rates increase
    • No new federal agency to monitor and/or implement the program
    • Low or no cost to the US Treasury
    • Economic stimulus due to the lowering of mortgage payments for millions of homeowners
    • Lower losses to holders of mortgage backed securities, potentially stabilizing the secondary mortgage market.

    In most places today it makes economic sense for people to walk out from their mortgage, rent for a while and they are happy to hear that three years later they can buy again.

    We need to have a plan that modifies all mortgages without restrictions. Modify without any questions asked.
    We should have principle reduction for all under water mortgages and 2% to 3% interest rates for all conforming loans with 3.50% to 4% interest on jumbo loans and non owner properties. If we do this we will stop foreclosures and at the same time we will also have a great new economic stimulus package.

    The economy after 9/11 was mostly driven by the Real Estate and the refinance boom that according to some estimates placed over 150 Billion dollars per year in the hands of consumers. I do not know much money a drop of interest rates to 2% to 3% will put in the hands of the consumers in the next 4-5 years but what we know is that it will cut their monthly mortgage payment by more than half and all that money will provide a much faster stimulus to the economy than the 787 Billion economic stimulus package.
    “In a recent study, Fernando Ferreira and Joseph Gyourko of the University of Pennsylvania, together with Joseph Tracy of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, found that people who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth are about a third less mobile. David Altig, research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates t
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    1488HATERNATION Sun Aug 15, 2010 06:22 am EDT Report Abuse
    Fannie and Freddie need go ct14 or bankrupt we need stop puming cash in these worthless scams
  • 2 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 2 users disliked this comment
    Virtue Sat Aug 14, 2010 12:44 am EDT Report Abuse
    We are prisoners to our corrupt political system courtesy of corrupt corporations and their lobbyists. In many ways, Republicans and Democrats are alike although Republicans are at least 3 times worse than Democrats. Republicans are twice as corrupt and only half as smart. One only has to look at the Republican mouthpieces of Sarah Palin and Sharron Angle to realize that Republicans are inept, corrupt, or both. At least Democrats try to help the people. Republicans can only ramble on about how great capitalism is, when in reality, America no longer has capitalism. Due to corporate corruption, America only can boast of corporate cronyism and monopolism, enforced by troops of lobbyists. But you do have a say. Vote out every last corporate lackey (most Republicans, a few democrats) and keep on doing it. Demand term limits. Just like diapers, DIRTY politicians need to be changed often.
  • 4 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    michaelr Fri Aug 13, 2010 02:13 am EDT Report Abuse
    I guess all the experts in DC and state gov'ts still don't get it?Debt too high,too many people on civil service at inflated salaries & bfts,too much profit on war material and big financial orgs need to write off some of their losses each year and not park it in nebulous accounting.Globalization can work if we get at least 75 cents of goods exported for every dollar we import? Propping up slave labor wages in many countries aggravates free trade concept.Big money is too inflential and controlling.A free market economy requires value added and discipline by labor,mgt and Gov't. Lots of real constructive thinking and planning required,not quick fixes and welfare for the rich,but present leaders are not up to really putting the best minds to work and more interested in protecting and expanding their fortunes.We'll yet see many offices on wall street closed,gov't layoffs and much pain unless our leadership changes its thinking and actions.We can do much better.Time long past for a gov't of national unity.
  • 5 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Tom Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:20 am EDT Report Abuse
    The Federal Reserve has failed. The whole purpose of the Fed was to magically enable fractional reserve banking by making it all too big to fail. Well it has failed. Instead of a bunch of little bank panics like we had prior to the Fed when they made too many loans without enough capital, now the whole system is coming down. We're headed for hyperinflation. This has proved once and for all that fractional reserve banking does not work. It's a giant Ponzi scheme. We need to dissolve the Fed, return to a hard currency, and have 100% reserve requirements. If you deposit money in a bank it has to be either a time deposit or a demand deposit. A demand deposit you can get back any time but does not pay interest and in fact you have to pay a small storage fee. A time deposit pays you interest but you can only get it back after a set amount of time (like a certificate of deposit account) because it has been lent out to someone else in the meantime. The bank cannot simultaneously give you your money back while it has also loaned it to someone else. Loans have 100% capital backing. That is the only way to have a stable and non-fraudulent banking system.
  • 3 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    ParaMind Brainstorming So ... Thu Aug 12, 2010 08:23 pm EDT Report Abuse
    We need to focus on creating real values in our lives and not false values that evaporate. If you build your house on sand, it will crumble. Why don't we have more fruit and nut trees, herbs, and better vegetable gardens in our yards? Because most people are dreaming and asleep. You can't be prosperous if you think all value is in dollars and cents.
  • 9 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Sandy Thu Aug 12, 2010 05:40 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Pulled our money out of the bank. Sold the house in 2000 and am now renting at $545. a month..Payed off both cars and maintained them..Payed off our credit card debt litterly froze the card..Yep i put them in a jar of water attached to a rock and then into the freezer.
    We buy what we NEED with cash only. We saw the writting on the wall back in 2000 and made adjustments...Thank you GOD for the vision.
  • 2 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Ricky Thu Aug 12, 2010 02:58 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Who Cares? The time to act has passed. In 2008 economist Robert Shiller advocated a Homeowners Loan Corp to solve the subprime crisis. It would have prevented 3 million foreclosures to date and millions more in the years to come.
  • 1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    jc Thu Aug 12, 2010 07:01 am EDT Report Abuse
    A 30% decline in RE from here would mean we're only about 1/2 thru this mess, a depression would be a certainty if that happens. Property values would be below zero in the sand states if that happens LOL

    There would be stampedes of walkaways, banks failures you name it!
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    backtobasics Thu Aug 12, 2010 03:51 am EDT Report Abuse
    How we do'in???

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