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Jobs Market "Close to a Bottom," But Unemployment Heading Above 10%, Economist Says

Posted Jun 05, 2009 01:13pm EDT by Aaron Task
The U.S. economy lost 345,000 jobs in May, much better than feared and the slowest pace of decline since September.

Along with downward revisions to losses in March and April, Friday's report is a sign the "bad news is getting less bad," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.

Friday's report is consistent with the recent improving trend in jobless claims; combined, the data suggests the jobs market is "close to a bottom," the economist says.

That's the good news.

The bad news is the unemployment rate rose to a higher-than-expected 9.4% in May, the highest level in over 25 years, and Behravesh expects it will exceed 10% by year-end. Friday's report doesn't include the most recent layoffs at GM, and there's lots of new grads just entering a very difficult market.

The pace of job loss is improving, but 14.5 million Americans are unemployed and the "real" unemployment rate - which includes people who've given up looking or settled for part-time jobs - is 16.4%, the highest in the 15-year history of the series.

116 Comments

Wehrmeister2000
Wehrmeister2000 - Friday June 05, 2009 01:15PM EDT

;'{P

Wehrmeister2000
Wehrmeister2000 - Friday June 05, 2009 01:16PM EDT

;'{P~~~

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday June 05, 2009 01:22PM EDT

ain't no bottom....tat hole is so deep now tat the American comsumer is kissin' the feet of China... http://www.worldthinktank.net/pdfs/TheFlowofTrade.pdf

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday June 05, 2009 01:24PM EDT

You can always HIRE unemployed Financial Bloggers! Like Johnny for instance! Totally incomprehensible and incoherent, just like a banker or stock broker.

Art
Art - Friday June 05, 2009 01:24PM EDT

How can the job market improve with the anti-business democrats in control?

JohnL
JohnL - Friday June 05, 2009 01:24PM EDT

Some economists don't want to admit that many of these job cuts are permanent. The auto industry is going through a massive downsizing because it was much too large. Downsizing includes slashing jobs, factories and material consumption. Many of those jobs will not be replaced in that industry.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday June 05, 2009 01:25PM EDT

That's RIGHT kiddies: It does NOT include the auto workers... yet.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday June 05, 2009 01:27PM EDT

You can ALSO throw in: All the service businesses surrounding those auto plants and eateries/bars/etc.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 05, 2009 01:27PM EDT

YESTERDAY THE NEWS SAID THERE WERE OVER 520,000 NOW TODAY IS 345,000 Hmmmmmmmmm... Who's lying here?

E
E - Friday June 05, 2009 01:34PM EDT

I am going to outline my theories here about what is going on. First off, this market rally of the past few months is a "junk stock" rally. All the "junk stock financials" that were like $1 a share went up like 400% and more. This poses a problem for investors like myself who only buy quality stocks. Myself and most fund managers have been penalized for our investment strategy. The market is rewarding "junk" and of course the government has created a giant moral hazard. Secondly, George Soros outlined in a book not too long ago that the US would enter a down economic cycle around 2007 that he called a "super bubble". The "super bubble" is a credit bubble that actually began during the Reagan years and grew into gargantuan proportions by 2007. Right now, the govt and the fed are trying to prop up the "super bubble" with more loose credit but it is too late - the bubble broke. I think the govt should take a lesson from the Austrian school of economics, "don't spend what you don't have". We are going to see much higher unemployement in the near future as the "super bubble" is burst and everyone will be affected in one way or another, like relatives needing to borrow money from you.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 05, 2009 01:44PM EDT

Expect more pain. And don't take whatever Johnny Ike is smoking. Dude looks like a lady.

S
S - Friday June 05, 2009 01:44PM EDT

Aaron Task keep up the good reporting. Do not waiver from the truth. According to this report, the temporary jobs and service sector job numbers are not as bad, but the manufacturing jobs number continues to get bad. This means the manufacturing sector people are continuing get laid off and they are taking temporary jobs flipping each other's hamburgers. This is no recovery the administration wants you to believe. It is going to get a lot worse since the bailout money will be all wasted in 1) pork barrel spending, 2) corruption and 3) Union jobs and Union health care. Then there will be no appetite for more bailout, because people will already be up to their necks in increased taxes. Once this information is digested and people realize that this is a sucker's rally the market will dive as quickly as it rose. I do not think the dollar will collapse because the democratic administration will keep raising taxes. So keep a sizable portion of your assets in CD's and another portion in gold and precious metals.

JG
JG - Friday June 05, 2009 01:45PM EDT

the short-sightedness of the Bears and Obama-haters is mind-boggling. this administration is NOT trying to re-inflate any bubbles, they are trying to make it an orderly decline, instead of an instant crash. yes, these jobs are probably lost forever -- there are just too many people in the USA, and on the planet. STOP HAVING BABIES ! I am child-free, and L O V E the financial freedom it gives me :)

Jim
Jim - Friday June 05, 2009 01:48PM EDT

All this suggests is you have been had ... much better than expected

donfurio
donfurio - Friday June 05, 2009 01:52PM EDT

Task + Blodget=short busted, I love it

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 05, 2009 01:54PM EDT

Babies like J.G. who do not understand head or tail of economics are the reason why Obama got elected. They are ones who will be creamed because they will be left out in the cold by Obama. Eventually social security and medicaid will be gone. Perhaps J.G. if it is not too late have some children, or adopt some. For risk mitigation, you may need them later to give you shelter when you are old and no body else is willing.

donfurio
donfurio - Friday June 05, 2009 01:55PM EDT

Task + Blodget=short busted, I love it

stupid
stupid - Friday June 05, 2009 02:01PM EDT

What the heck - are we trying to make people happy whenever the bad news come?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 05, 2009 02:01PM EDT

Hey Johnny Ike, are you still on the third floor of that psychiatric ward. Where are you getting your news from?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 05, 2009 02:04PM EDT

LOSSES DIMWITS... THESE ARE LOSSES........ WHERE ARE ANY JOB CREATED HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM????? WHERE ARE THE GREEN JOBS????? HMMMMMMMMMMM????? OH GOODY.... JOB LOSSES ARE DOWN.. BUT OOPS.. .26 YR HIGH 9.4 AND CLIMBING... DULLARD OBAMA TINGLE UP THE LEGS

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