Saturday, December 19, 2009, 12:47PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
Home prices continue to tumble, and have further to go to get back to pre-bubble levels, according to the bears. Another wave of foreclosure is coming down the pike, especially as another big slug of Alt-A mortgages start resetting to higher rates in 2010 and 2011. Plus, inventories remain elevated and now rising mortgage are putting a crimp in refinancing activity.
But Jeff Matthews, founder of Ram Partners takes a variant view: "What's happening in the real world is this: the housing market is recovering, fast," the fund manager recently wrote on his blog.
Matthews' optimism on housing is based on the following factors, as discussed in the accompanying video:
The current bottoming process may, indeed, prove to be the proverbial eye of the housing hurricane when all is said and done, Matthews says. Still, he believes it's a mistake to dismiss the improvements and says too many observers are busy looking in the rearview mirror vs. focusing on the reality in front of them.
What a fool. Mortgage rates are tied to the 10 year treasury note. We will see a reversion to the mean of 8-10% within a few years as foreigners will demand a premium on 10 year treasuries and as the U.S. will need to finance more deficit spending, more phony wars, and more trillions to the banks. Higher interest rates will mean lower prices. And I'm sure you can find a few areas where inventory is down, but by in large the inventory is at a record high in most metro areas. Way to pick and choose statistics to make a bogus argument. www.solari.com/blog www.maxkeiser.com
Oh and by the way most of those links are estimates or bogus information published by the U.S. government, which flat out lies about employment, inflation, and other factors.
A housing market bottom is always flat for many years and not "v" shaped.
Perhaps I an interest him in some very buildable swamp land down in Florida... now that the tide has turned.
Is this guy serious? If you look at stats the worst has yet to come. The prime and Alt A mortgages foreclosures are about to explode. Sure some speculators are buying the distressed homes but that's not the same as Joe public going on a home shopping buying spree. These guys live in their wall street fantasy ivory towers. Main street is not convinced ;)
Jeff, in the words of Mike Ditka: Who'ya crappin'!
Jeff Matthews is an idiot. I don't know what island he lives on or what planet. Obviously he does not get out to often.
United States Economy Likely To Recover & Emerge Stronger Than Before: http://www.sovestor.com/content/unitedstateseconomylikelyrecoveremergestronger
In housing sales, the saying is 'Location, location, location'. For long term sustainable recovery, the phrase is ' Jobs, jobs, jobs'! Without good paying jobs, the reduction in unsold housing will be very temporary
What a freaking tool. Amazing, this guy even has a job. What we will end up discovering is that there are more housing units available than there are families to fill them. It's musical chairs, except in housing's case, when the music stops, people will discover there was no reason to hurry because there were 20 more chairs than butts. But, the heedless optimists continue to beat their drum, the PARTY PARTY PARTY drum. Word to these people: it's 1 in the afternoon, and if you'll just open the drapes and remove the tinfoil from the blackout windows, you'll see the sun's shining and you and your fellow partiers look like crap from all the blow and booze you've been injesting. It's time to take a rest. The party, Jeff, is OVER. This guy is of course one of the people who said housing prices would rise forever, debt taking was limitless, there would be no recession, there's no such thing as a national housing bubble, dot.com companies with infinitely levered P/Es that produced nothing were a solid buy in 2001, etc., et al, ad nauseum, rinse, repeat, blather blather boo.
I've heard this story before, many times. Jeff Matthews is obviously invested in a way that will benefit from rising home prices, so he wants to do his best to pump them up, just like the fed'l government. Hey bozo, I live near Sacramento, and my empirical evidence is that things are getting worse, not better. There's folks living in tents near the freeway, and hundreds of homes in blighted neighborhoods that are abandoned. Why don't you fly your private aircraft out here and take a look? The only thing holding the housing market together right now is the moratorium on foreclosures (e.g., CA just announced a 3-month moratorium starting today). Once these expire, the knockout punch will come for this market that is STILL overpriced relative to the median family AGI.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaah. Please stop with the jokes my sides are hurting from laughing so hard. Does this guy get paid to produce this info?
This guy has 'heard' these things in his mind... this is the biggest steaming load I have heard in a LONG LONG TIME.
Jeff, empty. Shopping mall has "For Rent" signs all over the plac we live in a very affluential area north of Chicago and our local builder had recently completed construction of townhomes and a huge shopping center. Townhomes have been on sale forever and all I see is may be 2 of them are filled and the rest are sitting e and only Starbux and some Spa are open. The rest is dead. Builders, realtors and you Jeff are delusional to think housing market is going to recover in V shape. The era of easy money is gone for good.
who the hell is jeff matthews? whoever he is, get the bong away from him
This guys Company is "Ram Partners " what does that tell you.
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__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday June 15, 2009 03:38PM EDT
and people in he!! are drinkin' ice water!