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Nouriel Roubini's Three Reasons Why Stocks Are Bound to Fall

Posted Jun 19, 2009 10:00am EDT by Tech Ticker in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession, Banking

Believe it or not, Nouriel Roubini -- professor at NYU's Stern School and Chairman of RGE Monitor -- has some good news: Aggressive government intervention prevented a great depression.

The bad news: Roubini says the stock market rally is long in the tooth. (They don’t call him Dr. Doom for nothing.)

He points to three factors that will lead to a correction in the near future:

1. Volatility and Uncertainty Will Increase.  Note: the CBOE Volatility Index is currently down more than 50% since the October panic.

2. Corporate Earnings Will Disappoint.  He says the market is pricing in a robust ‘V’ shape recovery. However, when earnings miss expectations, buyers will turn into sellers, as was the case this week with FedEx. (Research In Motion shares were down early Friday after the firm’s guidance failed to live up to expectations.)

3. The Global Financial System Still Faces Serious Problems.  Roubini thinks unemployment will rise to 11%, bank losses will increase across the globe, and the recession in Europe will get worse.

The silver lining: Roubini isn’t convinced the market will retest the lows.

136 Comments

Mike
Mike - Friday June 19, 2009 10:40AM EDT

Anyone ever seen this cat NOT look disheveled? Poor old Roubini. If we'd listened to him 6 months ago we'd have left a 30%+ ride on the table. Also, for anyone interested, here's someone that keeps Roubini honest. As they say, even a broken clock is right twice a day. See below. http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20081024_1

thomasromancer
thomasromancer - Friday June 19, 2009 10:41AM EDT

The markets have already fallen. They will tank as people begin to lose the last vestages of trust in coporate America and the government. People sense that integrity and a general immorality of the government/corporate leadership, as they apply to the American people, has diminished. Investment in the markets will be seen for what they have become. Gambling with a deck of cards that is marked for people with the resources to control the markets. Once this reality becomes widely acknowledged, combined with the continued erosion of the USA, the markets will be abandoned by main street.

I'm Just saying
I'm Just saying - Friday June 19, 2009 10:43AM EDT

This variables do not mean crap today, why are they going to mean anything tomorrow? This market is being manipulated today and until the recession corrects itself.

John
John - Friday June 19, 2009 10:43AM EDT

There will be no retest,despite the interviewers' persistent short bias. Roubini is very astute, but 1) volatility can be a good thing when the pressure and momentum is upward. It remains so despite the recent shallow pullback. 2) the earnings surprises will be positive for financials and materials in the coming quarter, down for retailers and services. 3) the emerging markets are still growing, albeit at slower rates. Even Roubini predicts growth. Inflation is a threat, as are petroleum prices. I think Blodget and Task were short in the market from March thru the present. Too bad...the guys missed a historic long buy opportunity. They have been nattering nabobs of negativity since then. :)

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 19, 2009 10:44AM EDT

This economic problem was caused 100% by the government and Fed. Just two things caused it. The community development act of 1972 and ultra low interest rates. Yet the government is suggesting the cure is to regulate industry! Incredible! We get out of this trap when the government corrects the problems it created and even then it will be the private sector that solves the problem. So far the government has done zero to correct the mistakes it made. Nor does it intend to correct them. Rough ride ahead folks.

Tack
Tack - Friday June 19, 2009 10:44AM EDT

Sweet mercy, did you really trot this clown out again? Give me some news or intereresting commentary...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 19, 2009 10:45AM EDT

Dr. Roubini might be correct in the near future. The market could go down worse than Dr. Roubini's expectation. One thing Dr. Roubini should also point out is that stock investment is for very very long term. 10 years, 20 years, 50 years and 80 years..forever, you can say.

RajG
RajG - Friday June 19, 2009 10:46AM EDT

Q is how the down side scenario can be avoided, what can be done to avoid the double dip beacuse that would be horrific especially after all the spending Feds did. Possibly leading to a potential stagflation - an ugly one!! As he said limited weapons are left in the arsenal to fight that, does he have any suggestions to avoid it?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 19, 2009 10:46AM EDT

Why can't he comb his hair and tie his tie? What a slob!

Drink Morisaki
Drink Morisaki - Friday June 19, 2009 10:49AM EDT

But...despite everything it seems he was right. Before the subprime meltdown, he was preaching "doom and gloom"....and he was right as rain. Don't be so disrespectful of someone that knows a lot more than you and I. Unemployment ramping up clearly points to more loan losses- whether they be credit card debt, home loans or auto loans. Sounds like more bank losses to me...with the consumer tapped out, there is no catalyst for growth for quite some time as everyone scrambles to deleverage. Sorry, no more refinancing and taking out of equity...that trade is over...and with gas prices ramping up this spells trouble as disposable income gets squeezed even further. The man is simply telling it like it is.....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 19, 2009 10:50AM EDT

Where in the ---- do you guys come up with these losers? I'm about ready to pull the plug on Yahoo. I'm sick and tired of all the negative, doom and gloom. You scare the ---- out of people and seem to thrive on it.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 19, 2009 10:50AM EDT

President Banana has doomed the economy with his trillions of dollars stolen from future generations. The trillion dollar man has simply pushed back the day of reckoning a few years with his stolen loot. Notice President Bananas socialist solution of stealing rather than creating something, eg bring back jobs from China. To be expected from a "community organizer", ie he has no idea how the real world works. And how did he become a muli-millionaire as a "community organizer". How do people get rich from organizing/helping the poor?

Bammer
Bammer - Friday June 19, 2009 10:54AM EDT

I put all my money in the Happy Sugarplum Duckbum Fund. I like their no nonsense approach of accentuating the positive while eliminating the negative. I think Garrity and Sonders both recommended it

recycleguy
recycleguy - Friday June 19, 2009 10:55AM EDT

Anyone who would agree to talk to HB shouldn't be trusted. Guilt by association :-)

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday June 19, 2009 11:00AM EDT

He needs to go on a diet. How can someone who can afford to feed himself so well, be wrong?

Art
Art - Friday June 19, 2009 11:05AM EDT

This is typical crap from a college professor. The aggressive interventions will only prolong the depression. Some of the money created will probably find its way into the stock market. Don't play everything short.

there
there - Friday June 19, 2009 11:05AM EDT

This guy believes in government action and attributes the modest recovery to date to massive stimulus. I disagree, stabilizing the financial system is what has allowed a recovery, though that was helped by emergency government input. He doesn't discuss all the pros and cons of things because he's just a big macro economist and doesn't examine actual businesses or sectors so I don't know how he can say corporate earnings will disappoint. He's another one of these global thinkers who generalize and theorize too much and has never been involved in the real business world.

Ron
Ron - Friday June 19, 2009 11:06AM EDT

You've got to give this clown credit, he's found a way to keep his face in the media.

Benevolus
Benevolus - Friday June 19, 2009 11:08AM EDT

Tech Pricker again has Dr. Houdini on. We know what happened to Houdini. Houdini made one lucky call and now he all knowing. Another idiot in my book.

Jon
Jon - Friday June 19, 2009 11:09AM EDT

William M, you mention that Mr. Roubini luckily forecasted the collapse of the real estate market. I'm not an expert in economics, just a sales professional trying to make a living in this less than desirable economy. Any dimwit could have an did forecast the collapse of the real estate market, we just didn't say it on TV. I can remember my wife and I discussing the crazy real estate market and how our house was not worth the price that the last similar model sold for. It was obvious the market was way overheated and we knew it would fall eventually! Many of our friends and neighbors felt the same way. Sure enough, it soon fell hard! I guess I should be on Yahoo or any of the other financial news programs as an expert!

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