State of the Real Estate Market July 2009: Plenty More Downside

finally, a truth sayer

I agree with you on bottom line #3. On #1 and #2, you have no idea whether or not we're in the "middle innings" or if house prices have another 15% to 20% to go. There are so many variables that are beyond your control. Intuitively, I can't help but feel that with Obama's polcies were assured a death spiral. However, there is no way I can somewhat reliablly predict beyond 6 months. It's akin to picking next year's super bowl winner. You can make a reasonable pick but history shows you can't really know. I wish forecasters would simply not make predictions beyond about 6 months. This is one of the first things you learn in an time-series forecasting or an econometrics course. At least you acknowledge this with the word "likely" in your final paragraph. www.rightreturn.blogspot.com

This is total BS. No one really knows what is going to happen. I would guess that housing has fallen 80% of what it will fall. So here is what I think is going to happen. Housing won't fall in price for the next 5 years, but it won't go up either. It is just going to get eaten away by inflation. Essentially anyone who is considering buying a house should do so this summer. Take advantage of the tax credit. It will most likely cushion the remaining fall. The root of the housing problem won't be fixed for a long time. People owe more on their house then it is worth. In order to fix that, people need just need time. And in reality, if you can make your payments, it doesn't really matter to most what there house is worth. Sad fact of reality, but it is true. Most people are under water on their mortgage. That isn't going to change, unless the government let in immigrants who will buy houses with cash, and make them citizens. But that would be smart, and the government won't do that. Besides it doesn't fit its liberal agenda.

these guys are all full of crap

Yes, We are only half way to this housing prices bubble burst of the century, as I predicted on Wall Street Journal market beat blog Sept 2007 and Shanghai China Fund World glbal investment managing directors March 2008 that US housing price will be down 30- 50 % through 2009, drag economy into deep recession, global stock market into 50- 70 % correction. Currently US housing prices only down 32 % from 2006 peak, only some cities in California, Florida, Arizona,housing price drop 50 %, the rest of the cities, still have a long way to catch due to drag down by mounting jobless rate over 10 % and soaring mortage rate above 5.8 % in the month ahead and global recession. we will be facing inflationary recession, rising rate will hit hard on the housing market next year. details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/macro.html

how seriously should we be listening to this man, after his impressive record of misleading investors during the tech bubble..?

Real estate is specific to the area. Not ALL markets are the same; thus, I am growing quite tired of these general predictions. I believe that the markets that have already dropped almost 50% from the top, such as certain areas in CA, have already hit bottom or are darn near close. I think if you can buy within 20% of it, you have done quite well. Sure one could wait another year; however, factor in rent that you are throwing out the window and the tax advantages.

how seriously should we be listening to this man, after his impressive record of misleading investors during the tech bubble..?

What a day..must the market pullback every so often so someone could profit off of others. This is truely an unjusted market. What happen to those 401k contributions that we made? Aren't they there? Folks, put your money under your mattress forever...they are there with you.

This is what we are experiencing in my hood....here alot of recent mortgage activity has been people acting on relatively low interest rates, to refinance.....If the US bond/China selling rate is accurate, then unfortunately we'll be experiencing higher interest rates....a recent stat that 9% of mortgage holders are averaging 30 days past due is true, not good either.....higher taxes will continue to suck money from the private sector......until the private sector job losses level off, we'll likely not see a real increase in single family homes.... Keep given me the facts, baby, I can take it.

I love how we can't predict economic markers any more accurately than a Super Bowl 6 months away, but we can predict global temperature 50 YEARS in the future down to a single degree. Since when did predicting the future become scientific fact? Can anyone name a single instance of this happening? Sorry for being off topic but seriously, people. A computer algorithm that predicts the future? Science fiction - check out Asimov's Foundation trilogy. I don't think we're quite there yet...

I love how we can't predict economic markers any more accurately than a Super Bowl 6 months away, but we can predict global temperature 50 YEARS in the future down to a single degree. Since when did predicting the future become scientific fact? Can anyone name a single instance of this happening? Sorry for being off topic but seriously, people. A computer algorithm that predicts the future? Science fiction - check out Asimov's Foundation trilogy. I don't think we're quite there yet...

He has a lot of charts. I would like to see a chart for the debt load a bankrupt, unemployed person can handle.

All I can say is don't be the fools buying at the top of the Sucker Rally. Sell or short... I warned you...

Short Ticker strikes again

Housing has a ways to go... the slide will stop AFTER unemployment stops increasing. This will be the mark of the bottom in housing.... This is the time to rent, stay where you are or move in with your folks - the house you are buying today will either stay flat of go down in value over the next 2 years.

For you suckers who think you can 'flip a house' good luck to you... money is harder to get and the buyer is much more educated than before. You can't put on a $2,000 counter top and expect to get $10,000 more home value from it. My gosh were a lot of people a lot of stupid for too long. Now we're all dealing with the fallout.

Smart money is deleveraging, saving and investing! Sure I would love to upgrade/upsize, but i'll happily wait another 5 years until this recession is behind us. I laughed at these house flippers who put a coat of paint on a house and expected $10,000 more money... or a new counter top and wanted another $5,000... I walked into one of these houses and when I found it was purchased for $50K less 2 months prior and 'imporved' with paint and a counter top I moved on. I am not THAT sucker. To bad too many people were!

mmayzak....Why move in with parents? Perhaps you are 21 and don't mind. If it stays flat or even drops a little, don't you think now is the time to buy in order to take advantage of the tax credit and low interest rates?

About 2 Months ago,...Case-Shiller Reported that Over 58% Of ALL SINGLE FAMILY Homes...In The State Of Florida....Were Either In Foreclosures OR 90-Days Delinquent On Their Mortages.....58% OF ALL THE HOMES IN OUR STATE,,,, That Is A Complete MELTDOWN....."MELTDOWN" Market.....And This Is Gouing To Continue,,,,,For Another 2-3 Years,,,,, Save Your Money & Wait....