State of the Real Estate Market July 2009: Plenty More Downside

Don't move in with your parents! Come take advantage of the opportunities here in ARIZONA! Inexpensive housing and plenty of jobs in restaurants and hotels! Add our magnificent warm winter weather to the package, and it's a deal that just can't be beat! Hurry! We need you!

So it's the blame game. Here we go blaming immigrants, you idiots, your credit limit is not your income. Spend less than you actually earn, not the amount left on your credit card or home loan. Housing went up due the false sense of demand due to easy credit that you were not forced to get. Stop blaming others and look in the mirror, that's the person responsible for this mess.

T2's work on the residential housing market has proved to be very reliable thus far. I am mush more willing to listen to these folks than to many of the cheerleaders in the business media who are trying to say the residential housing market has bottomed and the recession is over. On a national level 15-20% further is probably a good estimate of the situation. That is IF the recovery does not also resemble a mother of all head fakes and dips again in Q3 or Q4 '10. However, during most housing collapses of the past 100 years housing values "overshot" to the down side so prudence requires that this potential outcome be given serious consideration which would add an additional 7-20% more downside risk. We'll see. My money is on T2 rather than the cheerleaders.

The oen chart this self proclaimed guru will not show is the return of the Tilson Fund which was down over 40% last year and underperformed every year since its inception.

Carlos, The only thread that here that mentioned "immigrant" was offering a solution not blaming anyone. Reread it.

It is sad to say that our newly elected President is no more than a good looking anchor person on the 5 O'Clock News. Period. End of story. All these smoke screens he is putting up to present himself as a problem solver are getting old fast. Even the ignorant people (consist of highly educated people, as well as, uneducated people) who voted for him are beginning to wake-up to smell the burnt coffee they have been told is a new blend that is good for you. Although it may not taste good, it is good for you in the long run. Mr. President, here is a novel idea...Allow the Free Market to be FREE! Stop rewarding lazy and mismanaged companies by bailing them out. They are failing for a reason, bad choices. The last time I made a bad choice I had to live with the consequences. They are no different. Let them take their medicine. If you continue to bailout companies, private individuals are next and there are just too many people that can justify hardship in this economy. The handouts will continue for years if you believe writing checks until the cows come home will solve our problems. Stop creating a dependency on the government. We don't need your money. We need you to leave us alone. Protect our borders and get back to the business of managing our country, not our economy. It's not your business and you have no idea what you are doing in the first place. Please, listen to the people...not your friends at the network news outlets. I know they pay handsomely to run for office, but they don't have a clue or they have no concern what real people go through. By the way, real people consist of everyone...democrats, republicans, liberals, conservatives, etc...

LIES! How dare you purport to know where we are in the crisis, how much house prices can fall or whether recent signs of stabilization are true or false? No one can reasonably predict this information with any confidence. So you are either intentionally lying or a fool. Either way, you have no credibility. Furthermore, this commentary that is stated as fact is gravely dangerous to our economic health and national security as it can have the effect of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If we become a nation of single income families, the prices could go a lot lower. As far as my family prediction, a 80 year old friend with spectacular success as an investor tells me that I am overly optimistic. The "haves" will have one income per family and the "have nots" will have a part time job per family if they are lucky.

Must be a lot of realtors and other real estate professionals posting here ... those who say you can't predict a further decline ,etc, or "now is the time to buy". Sort of like: the Titanic is going down now, she's down by the bow, only about a 1/3 of here still showing ... but nobody can predict what may happen ... Buy White Star Line stock now, while you've got the chance!

LIES! You are either intentionally lying or a fool.

In the Market for a second home. Going to wait until the bottom then make a lower offer! If they refuse the offer, will counter-offer even lower. This, is the way the Market is going!

Whew! I was really worried that the real estate market was going to start recovering!

Sort of like: the Titanic is going down now, she's down by the bow, only about a 1/3 of here still showing ... but nobody can predict what may happen ... Buy White Star Line stock now, while you've got the chance!------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ White Star is looking good, but I think this baby can still go lower. I'm calling a bottom at half-sunk; that's when I'll jump in and start riding the bull back up.

I say, tax the banks for foreclosures and repos. A tax of 10% of what the original loan amount was, then charge a penalty for anything above 9%. It should be like this 0-9% no penalty 10-15% $100(car loans) $1000 (home loans) and after 15% charge $100-1000 per 1/4 point. Example; Car loan $17000 at 16% if they want to repo. They should pay the state $2600 ($1700 + 500 (10-15%) +400 for 1% after 15% interest tax) before they can even think of calling a repo company. Also require repo people to have DOD Clearance, in order to repo. House would work like this: a home with a loan on it of $500,000 at 5% and they want to foreclose. Fine, that will be $50,000 tax to foreclose. That's before they can file. Repossessions and foreclosures are helping to kill this country. We taxpayers. bailed them out. Now lets make them pay for burdening our system. Call your state reps and have something like this passed. Either that or have YOUR property, sales, meals and gas taxes and tolls and mass transit fares go up. They (the banks) are causing people to lose work and burden our system. The banks are getting off on this so stop them.

I love it how some of the posters here got all bent out of shape and even started calling T-2 Partners "liars" simply because they disagree with their outlook. Folks, you can't argue with the data. Cold, hard data doesn't lie. The bashers are probably some of the same bag-holders who bought at the top of the market in their respective areas, and now they desperately want for things to turn around so they can stop swimming in debt. One of my brothers bought at the top in Tracy, CA, and my wife and I feel bad for him and his family, but wishing the economic reality would be diffirent doesn't make it so. Hopefully we (our nation) will learn something from this mess, but I doubt it.

Wow, where were all of you “know it alls” a few years ago? Hind sight has made economic gurus out of most everybody here and seem very confident that they know what is going to happen in the future based on the past - pure genius.

All I know is we reach the bottom already but the buyer are lack of confidence.............Patient is the essence of confidence........becuse it is a virtue........ Relax and have a whisky.......

I Agree with the above article....I do feel bad fore those who got sucked into the spring Realtor hype...Come fall/winter there gonna watch there down payment disappear....poof....Oh-well at least they got a cheap interest rate...That will work out just dandy when they go to Move, upgrade or borrow over the next 10-15 years...nice!...

I added some bubblepack insulation to a refrigerator cardboard box and flipped it on the street to a bum for 3X what I had in it. What a country!

Jobs, jobs, jobs= confidence, confidence, confidence. It won't get better until that changes, however long it takes.