Friday, December 25, 2009, 3:45AM ET - U.S. Markets Closed for Christmas.

GE Stock Worth Just $2, Says Longtime Bear Charles Ortel

Posted Jul 08, 2009 07:01am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing

If 2008 hadn’t been the year of Wall Street’s Armageddon, it might have been remembered as the year General Electric was revealed to be a financial company masquerading as an industrial conglomerate.

Like most banks and Wall Street firms, GE’s financial unit, GE Capital, was pummeled by the credit crunch, arguably threatening the venerable company’s survival.

Like other financial firms, GE weathered the storm, thanks in part to the government’s bailouts – last November GE Capital was declared eligible for TARP funds, thanks to its ownership of a small S&L in Utah. To date, GE Capital has issued about $80 billion of FDIC-insured debt through the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program, or TLGP, The Washington Post reports.

But GE is far from out of the woods, according to Charles Ortel, managing director of Newport Value Partners, an independent research firm. As of March 31, GE had $470 billion of debt vs. just $2.8 billion of tangible common equity, he notes.

Because of that high debt-to-equity ratio and a slowdown in its industrial businesses, “we only see downside” for the stock, says Ortel, who believes $2 represents fair value for GE common, which closed Tuesday just above $11.

When GE reports results on July 17, Ortel expects a "tough discussion over their numbers," predicting GE Capital's second-quarter results will be better than feared but the industrial side of the business will be worse than expected.

"I would not want to have [Jeffrey] Immelt’s job in the next few weeks trying to figure out how to explain where he is," Ortel says.

Two items worth noting here:

  • Ortel first made a bearish call on GE’s stock (and a bullish one on its credit default swaps) back in August 2007, long before problems at GE Capital were evident to most investors.
  • Neither Ortel nor his firm have positions in GE stock, but their research is sold to hedge fund managers and other institutional investors who very well might.
Go to Tech Ticker
139 votes|Recommend this

204 Comments

AsGoodAsKansasCity
AsGoodAsKansasCity - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:11AM EDT

Markets are obviously colapsing again. Duh. People don't have the money to give GE. Yeah, no kidding. GE is bankrupt.

Art
Art - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:12AM EDT

GE is just an old dinosaur like GM.

EddieK
EddieK - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:13AM EDT

It is very simple what happened here. GE was seen as a 'diversified' company when in fact it actually was not. It used its GE Capital unit to have access to cheap money, and when GE Capital got hit, the bricks to the foundation started coming apart.

U8ntnxprt
U8ntnxprt - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:15AM EDT

*** Ortel sells his Advice to HEDGE Fund Managers*** So why should I listen???? Gee... think I let them idiots get clobbered again in 2009 & 2010... Going to stick with the Stimulus plan spending & Warren Buffet's insight myself..

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:16AM EDT

hmmmmm.... we seem to have a difference of opinion. Maybe if Tech Ticker could get Ortel and Johnny Ike together to engage in a debate we could make a more informed decision.

RobertM
RobertM - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:19AM EDT

Just another crumbling brick in the wall. Have 1600 shares of GE for retirement. I guess that has gone south with everything else. Lucky for me my daddy was a steelworker so we didn't have much growing up. Hand me down clothes, brown bag for lunch, one week on the boardwalk at A.C. There's no hope with the socialist tax happy do gooders. America's best years are definetly behind us. Just let me and my wife squeeze by and the rest of you can go to crap.

Michael
Michael - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:20AM EDT

This economy is going to to tank. Mark my words. The govt has finally realized that they can't save it by propping it up. It's going to happen and happen bad. Figure out a way to save your money.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:22AM EDT

Looks like analysts are playing. If you join the dumping, in and out of the train, be careful. They can slow the train, and they can also speed up the train, leaving us behind in the desert.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:25AM EDT

It's about time people finally start to see this. GE has been a sack of garbage for YEARS! Jack Welch sure got out smelling like a rose, though. People need to understand that this isn't Immelt's fault; he's just the bagholder.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:28AM EDT

When indexes are ten year low, best grap the rope and hold for another year. You will be wet and get only paper loss. Most of those who scared to sell low will regret.

who cares
who cares - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:29AM EDT

I worked for GE in NC---the unit that backs credit cards issued to Lowe's, Dillards and the like. Their benefits are good, and the pay stinks. Part of the benefits is investing in GE stock. During the short time I worked there, GE stock was $25.00 per share and now it's $11.00. Do the math...I lost 60% of the value. Good thing I diversified. The future of GE does not depend on the government or the market. It depends on focusing on business that is profitable, which GE has yet to identify. Johhny Ike likes to be first in line for comments, but the Good Book says "the first shall be last". Be careful who you believe, do your homework and good luck and God Bless.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:29AM EDT

Stocks can start a multi-year bull market from any afternoon for noon reason, no matter how high the jobless rate is.

Owns Obama
Owns Obama - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:30AM EDT

At one time GE was number 1 or 2 in a number of industries. Now they're just a second or third rate player. They offer up such brands as NBC Universal. Their finance division was started up with the reasoning that they wanted to provide others with the necessary financing to sell them their own high cost products. But then it evolved into a financial landmine. While their debt is enormous, its not out of line when compared to many of their brethren. Finance companies use leverage which means they're going to have a lot of debt.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:31AM EDT

Hedge Funds that's all we need to know. Who owns the American Market? Hedge Funds. Who is cashing it? Hedge Funds. Is the private investor making out? Ask the Hedge Funds. Look who is in charge of the PPIP? I wonder if there is any kind of Obama Connection there? Blackrock? Is Obama fellating Blackrock or is Blackrock fellating Obama? Have any of you pro-Obama people looked into any of this? I think not. It is intuitively obvious that you pro-Obama people just refuse to look at the sad, sad connection Obama has with some of the market manipulators. Dig, dig, dig those conspiracy theories out of the closet and counter this argument with Bush and Big Oil, Cheney and military contracts, and any number of theories you mental incompetents can dream up in your liesure time. Maybe you pro-Obama people need to learn to read ?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:31AM EDT

I doubt whoever can time the market.

Reyter
Reyter - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:31AM EDT

Very interesting and troubling.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:33AM EDT

When analysts downgrade, they want to lower the cost.

John J
John J - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:33AM EDT

GE a $2 stock? where is the president or history for a prediction like that. I always like the doomsayers downing good stcks so they can swoop in and pick them up cheap and make a bundle of cash. It's another insider trying to munipulate the market for thier own finacial gain. Nothing new under the sun there!

Lakeman
Lakeman - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:34AM EDT

Is my sight getting weak or is that Obama's ears I see sticking out of Jeff Immelt's back pocket? Maybe I need a "sight stimulation"?

StephenHolinka
StephenHolinka - Wednesday July 08, 2009 08:34AM EDT

For $2 a share, I will take a chance. Give me 1,000 shares.

Yahoo! reserves the right to refuse, or remove any comment that does not comply with the Yahoo! Terms of Service. The submission of spam, hateful, or obscene messages may result in the termination of your Yahoo! ID.
About Tech Ticker - Send FeedbackDisclaimer. Copyright © 2007 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright/IP Policy - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy - Help
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Delay times are 15 mins for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges.

Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data, daily updates, fund summary, fund performance, dividend data and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.