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We Need More Stimulus and More Government Borrowing, Shiller Says

Posted Jul 13, 2009 07:00am EDT by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession
The political war over stimulus heated up this weekend: Several Republicans declared the $787 billion plan passed in February a "flop," while President Obama defended the package in a Washington Post op-ed piece:

"It was, from the start, a two-year program, and it will steadily save and create jobs as it ramps up over this summer and fall," the President declared. "We must let it work the way it's supposed to, with the understanding that in any recession, unemployment tends to recover more slowly than other measures of economic activity."

The rhetorical battle is occurring amid debate over whether more stimulus is need or if the plan passed in February was poorly structured.

Put Yale Economist Robert Shiller down as a "yes" on both counts.

Both Obama's 2009 stimulus and President Bush's 2008 tax rebate were "too small," Shiller says. "We need more stimulus and need more government borrowing and probably can do it."

Shiller's comments stemmed from a conversation about whether there's a "bubble" in the Treasury market, which got us talking about the corresponding fears of inflation and the U.S. government's inability to fund its deficits.

There is "some legitimacy" to those concerns, says Shiller. "But I'm not stressing them now. It's really important the stimulus package go ahead and the government continues to borrow."

Shiller's concern is the economy remains in a "precarious state," as discussed here, and there's a risk of a prolonged period of subpar growth. "Many economists think [the downturn is] a blip and it's over now. I don't know that it's over. The fundamental shocks to the economy are bigger than most econometric models represent. We have to respond to this crisis, not minimize it and assume it’s over."

As to whether there's a "bubble" in Treasuries, the author of Irrational Exuberance and Animal Spirits (with George Akerlof), says he worries more about a "negativity bubble" when it comes to the bond market.

"Too much public expression of concern about a possible collapse of U.S. government market is counterproductive now [and] I don't think it will happen," he says.

While that's something of a relief, the man who also wrote The Subprime Solution and helped create the S&P Case-Shiller Index believes another bubble in housing may emerge, as we'll discuss in a forthcoming segment.

264 Comments

marx
marx - Monday July 13, 2009 07:10AM EDT

another Yale skull and bones suggesting the tax payers pay more

Jim
Jim - Monday July 13, 2009 07:18AM EDT

How many ways ... can one person be so wrong ... about so much ? You can sure tell Shiller is an academic ... not a single ounce of common sense.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 13, 2009 07:19AM EDT

Capitalism is competition.No competition and we have socialism.Money should be earn, not made.Bancrutcy is capitalism,bailout is socialism.It's not important how you call sistem,important how you act.

yahoouser9
yahoouser9 - Monday July 13, 2009 07:33AM EDT

good thing we got off the gold standard in the great depression so the fed could take counter-cyclical measures... otherwise we might currently be in an economic crisis.

Bill
Bill - Monday July 13, 2009 07:36AM EDT

This is another example of " Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach."

Todd p
Todd p - Monday July 13, 2009 07:36AM EDT

YAY devalue our currency this is what they want anyway. Get ready for another banana republic,

fartso
fartso - Monday July 13, 2009 07:46AM EDT

this guy is a loser somebody throw a pie in his face .......pie him!!!

james b
james b - Monday July 13, 2009 07:57AM EDT

don't have to be smart to be a professor,, need any more proof?

glenn
glenn - Monday July 13, 2009 08:04AM EDT

Impeach Obama.. Obamunism will take all of us down.

I'm Just saying
I'm Just saying - Monday July 13, 2009 08:05AM EDT

Golly, the Senators admitted they did not read the 1,100 page document and voted blind on it nd everyone is surprised? They prove over and over again that they do not do any risk management analyses on any of their legislation because they never understand the consequences of their actions until it is too late. They prove by the limited success of the stimulus that there was no plan involved and it was all "hope". Again, these politicians prove their incompetence at the expense of the middleclass and you heroes want to give them a ?passing grade"? There should be impeachment proceedings starting today to start the indictment process so these politicians can share a cell with Madoff and Stanford.

RobertM
RobertM - Monday July 13, 2009 08:09AM EDT

To quote Will Rogers "We got the best politicans money can buy". Obama is the hero to the world. How did America get this far without him?

Len T
Len T - Monday July 13, 2009 08:15AM EDT

Who gets the stimulus? The too big to fail banks? Goldman Sachs? AIG? Spend your way out of debt. lol

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 13, 2009 08:17AM EDT

We need more government like we need a hole in our head.

Art
Art - Monday July 13, 2009 08:18AM EDT

Stop these nut-cakes before it is too late. There should have been some small success even if the stimulus amount was not enough. We have seen nothing but failure. The Obama economic policies have been and will be a disaster for everyone in the country except, of course, the high level politicians who will continue to be re-elected time after time.

Art
Art - Monday July 13, 2009 08:20AM EDT

The Obama/Bush/Pelosi stimulus plan is failing like most objective analysts predicted. The democrats know nothing about economics. The democrats only know politics and how to exploit ignorant people.

john h
john h - Monday July 13, 2009 08:20AM EDT

yo, a pile of garbage out of shillers mouth. if those are the top people educating the young to lead the future.......all hope is lost. bye bye

taopraxis
taopraxis - Monday July 13, 2009 08:22AM EDT

Tax rate *cuts*, along with immediate reductions in payroll withholding, would have injected funds into the consumer sector with essentially no delay, never mind two years. More money in people's paychecks would have allowed them to reduce debt and increase discretionary spending, both of which are necessary for any economic recovery to be sustained. But, the government is not going to do that. They're going to *increase* taxes and public indebtedness and give trillions of dollars to the insolvent dinosaurs that crashed the financial system. This will just cause another crash. Get ready...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 13, 2009 08:22AM EDT

SHILL-er. Kenseyians are going down!

James
James - Monday July 13, 2009 08:24AM EDT

Shiller is right! It has been proven over and over. If the people wont' borrow, the government must. Our monetary system is a debt model which requires new interest be produced to pay the interest on the old debt. The RE bubble began back in 2005 and that is why M3 was removed as a GDP forecast tool. Nobody would have believed just how much liquidity was being forced into free money markets. So, if you want to change bailouts and current economic stimulus, you must first change how money is created. We have computers today and no longer require a central banking system. The fFRC now determines who is to big to fail, not FDIC. Let them fail, you will see many regional banks stepping up to fill the void. Sell the assets and let the bond holders experience what many in the private sector are today; We still have the commercial market fall-out ahead. Like we have been saying since 2007, quarter 1, we are in recession, unemployment will peak at 11.5 with true unemployment approaching 20%, median house value to $157,200 and GDP to show modest improvement as a service based economy will lag manufacturing regions. We are still at risk to experience a period of stagflation and we all must remember that this will take at least 10 years to fully digest and cycle out the excess from this current bubble. God Bless America

AndrewJ5267
AndrewJ5267 - Monday July 13, 2009 08:25AM EDT

I agree with a number of items in the written statement above, especially about the economic crisis NOT being over. And President Bush's 2008 tax rebate being too small? How about too stupid? I guess he never heard the saying, "Give a man a fish, he eats for a day. Teach a man to fish, he eats for a lifetime." Bush's tax rebate was simply throwing a 'fish' to the citizens to appease us all for a day, then it was back to the same with no more 'fish'. Although Obama's plan is flawed in thinking most people are eager to work, at least there is a long-term plan in place, in that those who actually are eager to work, will be able to work that same type of job for years to come. But to simply say 'we need more stimulus' and NOT say what kind of stimulus? Sounds like uneducated NONSENSE!

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