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We Need More Stimulus and More Government Borrowing, Shiller Says

Posted Jul 13, 2009 07:00am EDT by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession
The political war over stimulus heated up this weekend: Several Republicans declared the $787 billion plan passed in February a "flop," while President Obama defended the package in a Washington Post op-ed piece:

"It was, from the start, a two-year program, and it will steadily save and create jobs as it ramps up over this summer and fall," the President declared. "We must let it work the way it's supposed to, with the understanding that in any recession, unemployment tends to recover more slowly than other measures of economic activity."

The rhetorical battle is occurring amid debate over whether more stimulus is need or if the plan passed in February was poorly structured.

Put Yale Economist Robert Shiller down as a "yes" on both counts.

Both Obama's 2009 stimulus and President Bush's 2008 tax rebate were "too small," Shiller says. "We need more stimulus and need more government borrowing and probably can do it."

Shiller's comments stemmed from a conversation about whether there's a "bubble" in the Treasury market, which got us talking about the corresponding fears of inflation and the U.S. government's inability to fund its deficits.

There is "some legitimacy" to those concerns, says Shiller. "But I'm not stressing them now. It's really important the stimulus package go ahead and the government continues to borrow."

Shiller's concern is the economy remains in a "precarious state," as discussed here, and there's a risk of a prolonged period of subpar growth. "Many economists think [the downturn is] a blip and it's over now. I don't know that it's over. The fundamental shocks to the economy are bigger than most econometric models represent. We have to respond to this crisis, not minimize it and assume it’s over."

As to whether there's a "bubble" in Treasuries, the author of Irrational Exuberance and Animal Spirits (with George Akerlof), says he worries more about a "negativity bubble" when it comes to the bond market.

"Too much public expression of concern about a possible collapse of U.S. government market is counterproductive now [and] I don't think it will happen," he says.

While that's something of a relief, the man who also wrote The Subprime Solution and helped create the S&P Case-Shiller Index believes another bubble in housing may emerge, as we'll discuss in a forthcoming segment.

264 Comments

Don G
Don G - Monday July 13, 2009 08:29AM EDT

I am no financial guy, I work, or at least I did work for a living until the economy collapsed. This shiller guy should stick to what he knows, which from the comments made is nothing about reality. No more stimulus money, our elected officials are way to busy to read and understand what they pass so I say they should not pass any more. The federal govt is killing us, let the market do what it is supposed to do, the strong will survive and the weak will not.

Jonathan
Jonathan - Monday July 13, 2009 08:31AM EDT

I say for the next segment they interview Johnny Ike. He is making more sense than this babbling moron.

Mobyware
Mobyware - Monday July 13, 2009 08:35AM EDT

Oh sure, just pile more debt on the backs of the tax payer. Inflation, we'll just not worry about that for now because if the Chinese see that we are inflating the hell out of our dollar they would come in and sieze property as payment on what we own them. Remember, the government is publishing the inflation numbers. They will never tells us that inflation is increasing. Read Atlas Shrugged. We are living it right now and the future does not look pretty.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 13, 2009 08:38AM EDT

Get him to provide where his clients etc. have thier funds....I would wager they are short on the dollar, and its failure to tumble is causing big pain. Squeeze the bums!

Rob T
Rob T - Monday July 13, 2009 08:40AM EDT

The weasels carp and criticize, yet have absolutely no idea what would work better. Truly pathetic.

tango1956a
tango1956a - Monday July 13, 2009 08:42AM EDT

Let's see now; the Federal Reserve caused the bubbles by mismanagement of the interest rates. The SEC failed to keep a watch on the Brokerages, Mortgage Lending Companies, Banks, Insurance Companies, Financial Conglomerates such as , AIG, and scamsters like Madoff, and the lists go on and on. The Appraisers failed or were criminal in Housing. The people in this, and other countries over spent on borrowing and credit. Therefore, we should rely on the Federal Reserve, the SEC,the appraisers, and the Government to get us out of the problems THEY caused or didn't see. Lets all go out and spend more money we don't have. Those who were clueless in the first place will save us THIS time!!!! lol, lol, lol.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 13, 2009 08:44AM EDT

He's right that the downturn is not just a "blip" and is in danger of continuing. But more stimulus isn't going to help. The current climate is a direct result of current administration policies, and nothing short of a change in course is going to help at all. It used to be that each of us was a major medical problem away from bankruptcy. Now we're all, collectively, a single cap-and-trade bill away from unemployment and a third-world existence. Only an idiot would lend money today after what happened to Chrysler and GM's bondholders. The notion that the president of the US can and will, without even the slightest pretense of deference to the law, take your money and give it to someone else for no other reason than that he likes them better than you is completely new in American politics, and we're seeing the result. It's not complicated, nor is it surprising. We've been telling you since before the election that this was exactly what would happen. You who voted this guy in had the choice to believe those who've never been right about anything, and those who've never been wrong, and you chose the former. Don't whine to me about it now.

d c
d c - Monday July 13, 2009 08:45AM EDT

"strong survive and weak will not." Study history much? And when the extreme free market gyrations kill the national economy? That has happened in history over and over. That is why pure capitalism in large scale is an unstable and unsustainable economic system in the long run. Europe was all capitalist until the great depression, until they had to reject capitalism for either fascism or socialism to save their nations from collapse. Both systems are similar in they practice much broader and deeper government involvement with the private and individual sector for long term guidance, investment and security. Very long term vision is where capitalism is very weak. But long term planning is also what separates us from the animals. It's not a bad thing.

AMDshortsRfools
AMDshortsRfools - Monday July 13, 2009 08:47AM EDT

Hey, never pass up an opportunity to use crisis.

Owns Obama
Owns Obama - Monday July 13, 2009 08:49AM EDT

There was never any chance that the stimulus bill would actually stimulate our economy. Its design wasn't to stimulate but to reward unions for their work on the President's election. As he said previously, he feels he owes them a lot. Screw everybody else.

JoellS
JoellS - Monday July 13, 2009 08:51AM EDT

Raise your hand if you want to pay more taxes, and if you think Washington has a clue on what they are doing? The 2 party system sucks. We have the worst of 2 evils. Shiller is definitely out in space somewhere. This government can't run itself, much less the rest of the country. Show me a subsidized apartment complex or neighborhood that isn't run down after a few years, and I'd consider socialism for about 30 seconds. If this continues, we'll be a third world country.

Bernard
Bernard - Monday July 13, 2009 08:53AM EDT

What's all of this knee jerk criticism of Prof. Schiller? If he predicted the dot-com bust and the sub-prime bust, I bet his portfolio looks better than ours.

I'm Just saying
I'm Just saying - Monday July 13, 2009 09:00AM EDT

Watch the earning's reports for the banks this week. Watch how the news is masterfully spun to show all sorts of rosey earnings. Of course, the "good news" will never mention how the TARP played into those rosey results and how the toxic assets are sitting there in someone's basement. Oh, wait, yeah, the PPIP is going to manage those assets, huh? How come someone is not looking into the PPIP selection process ??? Politics, maybe? Are these guys part of the PPT????? I wonder.... I heard some discussion this morning about how the market always seems to have some kind of reaction around 3:00pm every day???? Hmmmmmm? If another stimulus is done, should that make the market go up?????? Hmmmmmmm?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 13, 2009 09:02AM EDT

the only "gold lining" to this debacle is that they can't blame the fact that we didn't come out of it sooner on the gold standard. Vote for hard money! Put an end to the welfare / warfare / bailout state that fiat money supports with inflation of the money supply (and the debasement of every other "dollar")

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 13, 2009 09:03AM EDT

what portfolio?

redbear
redbear - Monday July 13, 2009 09:04AM EDT

The only thing that really will get the USA out of the doldrums is INFLATION. The Debt-o-crats will spend every available dollar focring the US Treasury to borrow at excessive rates of interest causing prices to rise creating the sensation that everything is OK, taking us all out of this depression. Inflation is the only mechanism that will make us feel "rich" again.

Art
Art - Monday July 13, 2009 09:04AM EDT

Government manipulation of interest rates and the money supply cause the boom and bust cycles. Markets will normally fluctuate but government interference causes giant moves up and down. The more government interference then the bigger will be the bubble and the deeper the depression.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 13, 2009 09:05AM EDT

what is obama stimulating??? ACORN.. giving more billions to his GOONS and THUGS at ACORN.... green jobs and shovel ready jobs??? where are they hmmmm? NAME ONE JOB THAT WAS CREATED? .(huh?off the Gold standard by FDR? what? ) think this guy voted for obama??? LOLOLOLOLOL another koolaid drinking libnut

Stephen
Stephen - Monday July 13, 2009 09:05AM EDT

yahoouser9 - good thing we got off the gold standard in the great depression so the fed could take counter-cyclical measures... otherwise we might currently be in an economic crisis. You need to do your research before making completely wrong statements. It was Richard Nixon who took the US off the Gold Standard in the early seventies.

lisalipps
lisalipps - Monday July 13, 2009 09:07AM EDT

Is this bozo for real?

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