Saturday, November 7, 2009, 6:54PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
Whitney's comments come ahead of what are widely expected to be blockbuster results for Goldman when it reports second-quarter earnings on Tuesday. The firm could produce quarterly profits exceeding $2 billion and is planning to pay annual bonuses of $18 billion, or $600,000 per employee, in 2009, The New York Times reports.
On the surface, this performance can simply be chalked up to Goldman's superior talents at trading and risk management, as well as its underwriting prowess. But, of course, nothing is so simple when it comes to Goldman, about which the conspiracy theories are circulating at an even faster-than-normal pace owing to:
This last issue is particularly sensitive now given the TARP funds Goldman received last fall - both directly ($10 billion) and as an AIG counterparty ($13.5 billion) - and since the firm now appears to be printing money again. There's still the unresolved issue of whether the government will make any return on what former Treasury Secretary and former Goldman CEO Hank Paulson called its "investment" in Goldman Sachs last fall.
As with other TARP banks, the U.S. government took warrants in Goldman in exchange for bailout funds. As "investors" in Goldman, U.S. taxpayers should therefore be pleased to see the company return to profitability so soon and so strongly. If that's the case, then I have no qualms about Goldman employees getting big bonuses as they have proven to be the fittest firm in the Darwinian world of Wall Street.
But that outlook assumes the warrants will be either held to maturity or repaid at a valuation to reflect Goldman's renewed strength and stock price appreciation. As of Friday, Goldman had yet to repurchase its warrants and bailout monitor Elizabeth Warren has warned Treasury is undervaluing the securities across the industry.
In other words, the taxpayer looks likely to get the short end of the stick, again.
Stories about Goldman front-running NYSE trades to the tune of $100 million per day ARE VERY WORRYSOME. It shows that we regualr investers are really just gamblers against a rigged casino.
Thats total B.S. we gave GS & AIG money and now they making $2B in profits in 1 qtr alone even AIG is expected to earn $1.32 eps thats over $130M in profits this qtr alone. How the heck did this happen.
Goldman invested over 43 million to lobby for "cap and trade" Why? They own a large interest in a company who is slated to be the distribution house for carbon points BIG picture eh?
Goldman invested over 43 million to lobby for "cap and trade" Why? They own a large interest in a company who is slated to be the distribution house for carbon points BIG picture eh?
Hmmmmm.... Goldman's Principal % of total NYSE trades has been at 30% to 40% of NYSE volume. There is nothing supplemental about this dubious Supplemental Liquidity Program. What do you call it? What is your definition of monopoly? Ladies and Gentlemen, the Dark Pool trading is what we are driving at Can Goldman have enough time to see others' trades before it executes the orders? The breakthrough will happen when no more than 5 technologists cooperate the potential investigation, such as the CTO, the team leader of the back-end developers, or the system administrator .
Tax payers always get the Short end of the Stick with a Big Government. When will people learn we need a truly limited central Government? In 2010 and 2012 we need to vote for some real change, not this hype Obama is selling.
No discussion of the $13 billion of free and clear money received from AIG. That was really the crime here. That AIG paper was worthless, and the taxpayers paid holders a 100 cents on the dollar, with no strings attached, no compensation for honoring the contracts to us. It was a bad deal for taxpayers and everyone in the industry knows it.
Treasury will auction off the warrants from J.P. Morgan, it could do the same for those from Goldman.
This earning season is set up to be a big disappointment at 110 trailing P/E on S &P. Robert Schiller said the market is about fair valued on a 10 year E basis. BUT COULD go down a lot. I slightly disagree on the latter part. Market move is not based on the 10 year E. We all agree. On the way up, it was not based on the 10 year E; On the way down, it will not follow that either. You see, at 110 P/E, the market becomes its worst enemy. This is what we get from market manipulation--the market requires nothing less than a spectacular blow out Q2, in an order of 50% plus YoY earning increase. The almost-corrupted Wall Street "low earning estimates" game will not satisfy the market any longer. Beating estimate is no longer good enough. The market demands a robust earning outlook, not just recovery, but a RAPID torrential growth. We will be screaming at each earning report:"show me the earnings!!" So, here is the expectation market has baked in: The last 4 sequential quarters are $7.57 (97% of all reported), -$23.25, $9.73, $12.86 respectively from the oldest to the newest. That results in about 8 trailinbg p/E. AS REPORTED EARNINGS estimates (top down) for the next 3 quarters including the just started Q2 are $7.27 $6.42 $6.17 respectively. This would result in about 27 EPS for the year 2009. That would put S&P at 405 as a fair value, 27*15=405. AT the current 880 level, Mr. market needs the 2009 EPS to be at 59, 880/15=58.67. So Mr. corporate America needs to show they can fill the gap between 27 and 59, i.e. 22 (59-27=22) SO, this means on average, each quarter from now on must have a $7 increase on its corresponding estimate, i.e. $14.27, $13.42, $13.17 respectively. The corresponding previous year quarterly earnings are $12.86, $9.73,-$23.25. This translates to YoY quarterly increases of 11% (14.27/12.86), 38% (13.42/9.73) and N/A or a flat QoQ (13.42 Vs. 13.17) respectively. To be more specific, We will be screaming at each earning report:" NOT only do you need to give me a 10% increase now, but also you need to project a 38% YoY increase next quarter and keep the momentum up to the Q4!!" Could this happen with a 9.4% jobless rate and a all-but-certain 11% rate before the year end? Could this happen with a 130 debt to income ratio? Could this happen with a $13.87 trillion net worth destruction of the US Households based on our own Fed Fund Report since Q3 2007? Could this happen with a synchronized global race to the bottom featured by the upcoming SPECTACULAR collapse of fraudulent economy of People's Republic of China (their days are numbered. You should not be surprised when I say their economy will collapse in less than 600 days) Conclusion: In this case, Schiller's "BUT COULD go down a lot" should be safely revised to "Most likely will go down a lot". I would lean more toward Gary Shilling's $40 S&P EPS, although I can see it is still too generous. The best prediction is the future is unpredictable; But it does not mean conditions cannot induce the inevitable. This is a not a paradox because the latter requires you to simply include ALL determining variables in a specific set of relationship or relationships. If you have a 6 month to 12 month horizon, the likelihood of successful selling at these price levels is simply overwhelming.
Now what used to be a several hour process can be done immediately and with dizzying efficiency through dark pools – large blocks of stock can move from buyer to sellers without even the market knowing they traded until at least 90 seconds later. ********************* 90 seconds is ETERNITY in the high speed computing power. Is this JUST perception?
Change Change Change - This is business as usual.
Goldman is profiting from the gov. supported derivitives bubble. when that pops again, goldman will have already scammed most of the suckers out of their money and any pensions that are left out there will be completely wiped out. Get your money out of the banks while it's still worth something and work towards a lifestyle low in debt, with savings for the tsunami that will be coming to an unemployment line near you.
I am closing all my trading accounts and cutting up my credit cards.
I'm unusually stoic about GS, although I think most members of their management team and their Washington agents should be prosecuted and jailed. The current American political system is nothing more nor less than the GS-run economic system...governing power to the highest bidder. All corrupt systems eventually fail, and ours is no different. We will be first-hand witnesses to the collapse of this parasitic system, and the American experiment with it. We've been so focused on the two major parties and their promises, that we let the enemy within take control of our government. GS and their operatives will have a day of accounting (I'm not talking about dollars and cents, here), but the sad thing is that so many innocents will go through untold hardships because of their greed and inhumanity. In the end, as the Founders noted, the Constitution can only work as the foundation of government for a moral and enlightened people. Unless greed, selfishness, ignorance and a sense of entitlement are overcome, our empire will fade and eventually implode like all others throughout history have done.
Goldman Sacks a parasite on the back of US Taxpayer gaming the stock market and taxpayers.
HILARIOUS! I'M SPEECHLESS AGAIN. Hmmmmm. Paulson, Bernacke and Geitner have pulled off the biggest scam in history. It doesnt matter Democrat or Republican. Goldman Sachs "THE FED." owns these fools. GOLDMAN IS THE MONEY LAUNDERING AGENT FOR THE FED. These crooked SOB's in the words of the Iowa Congressman should do like the Japanese and "COMMIT SUICIDE". WHILE THE REST OF US TAXPAYERS ARE ON LIFE SUPPORT WITH OUR COMPANIES THESE MF'S ARE CASHING IN. This makes me sick!
How do you buy stock in a company that is proped up by the government. The government will want to pull out making a profit and leaving the small investor holding the bag.
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gil - Monday July 13, 2009 12:12PM EDT
This is all on Obama and his Wall Street administration. Hows that hope and change working for the little people that believed in and voted for this lying piece of crap.