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Save CIT or Let it Fail? Obama, Geithner Navigating a "Slippery Slope"

Posted Jul 13, 2009 12:21pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession, Banking

Time is running out for CIT. Shares of the diversified lender are in freefall as investors doubt whether they can pay-off its mounting debts without filing for bankruptcy. Government officials say a CIT failure would not cause system risk to the financial markets. But that doesn't necessarily mean the firm won't receive a bailout.

Speaking in London Monday, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner left the door open for a rescue of CIT: "I am actually pretty confident in that context that we have the authority and the ability to make sensible choices," he said in response to a question about how the U.S. government might deal with CIT, the AP reports.

In the accompanying video, Aaron and Henry discuss the 'slippery slope' facing the government.  On one hand, you have a taxpayer base unenthused (to put it mildly) about helping another large financial institution.  Besides, this is the second time CIT has come to Uncle Sam with hat in hand.  They already received $2.3 billion in TARP finds in December.

On the flipside,  CIT is one of the oldest and largest lenders to small and mid-sized businesses.  CIT's future impacts Main Street America in a way other firms don’t. "There’s definitely political risk if they don’t bail them out," Henry says.

And, if CIT were to fail, the likely benefactors will be "Wells Fargo and GE Capital, who by the way, are huge banks that have been bailed out by the government," Aaron notes.

If a bailout does happen, it will likely come in the form of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program.  The program - used by General Electric and others – would ease investor fears by allowing CIT to issue short-term debt guaranteed by the FDIC.  The alternative is for CIT to issue higher yielding debt without government backing.  Investors might be attracted to the potential for higher yield but the cost might be prohibitive and may only postpone the inevitable — and that assumes CIT would be able to sell enough paper to cover its estimated $2.7 billion of debt coming due this year and another $8 billion in 2010.
 
At press time, CIT was reportedly still in negotiations with the Obama Administration, which can add CIT to its long list of tough assignments.

142 Comments

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 13, 2009 12:41PM EDT

The only thing not slippery is the taxpayers' backsides!

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 13, 2009 12:43PM EDT

Citi must fail in order for markets to gain confidence. Audit the Fed and gain confidence too.

Don G
Don G - Monday July 13, 2009 12:46PM EDT

Sure, bail them out, then CIT can raise the salaries of the highly valued individuals that work there. It makes perfect sense to me, I am out of work and to date unable to secure a position, so why wouldn't Obama and Geithner do another bailout. I sure am happy that we have a government in place that takes such critical care of our country. Who knows, when the next stimulus package gets approved the senate and congress may actually read it!

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 13, 2009 12:48PM EDT

BYE BYE

wooof
wooof - Monday July 13, 2009 12:51PM EDT

let them eat parsnips ..

toby
toby - Monday July 13, 2009 12:52PM EDT

It seems as though Messers Task and Blodgett are making light of possible illegal favoritism and collusion between government officials and functionaries and various financial institutions. All of this grinning, winking and chuckling is in poor taste and reflects a real and worrisome trend in contemporary investing circles. The new paradigm seems to be that illegality is assumed and that the bad players are in positions of governmental authority or that said persons are 'owned' by well heeled political contributors and as such the evildoers are untouchable. Institutional corruption led directly to the last revolution in this country, it is time for Ceasar's wife to mind her P's and Q's and to eschew any image of impropriety. Trust in the rule of law and the capitalist system in this country must be restored.

gil
gil - Monday July 13, 2009 12:53PM EDT

what part of NO MORE BAILOUTS don't these idiots understand. They already got 2.3 bil, Goldman sachs , the DEMON CRATS personal piggy bank, is back to RECORD profits. There are alot of people that need to go to jail.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 13, 2009 12:53PM EDT

If they are thinking about a small business bailout, why not just use TARP for CIT? This is another example of how the government constantly contradicts itself. That is, they want businesses to create jobs and consumers to spend, yet the government is raising the minimum wage, raising taxes on the people who actually have money to spend, raising energy costs, increasing regulations (probably necessary in the long run), and increasing the burden on businesses to provide healthcare. And the government is still using the same models that failed the system before. While government and Wall Street econometric models suggest a CIT failure does not pose systemic risk, in this financial crisis nothing has occured as it should and there could be serious economic fallout from its failure.

Whit Chambers
Whit Chambers - Monday July 13, 2009 12:53PM EDT

If Geithner can't manage his own finances, how can any idiot (OBAMA) expect him to manage others finances.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 13, 2009 12:54PM EDT

Let's keep rewarding bad management and operations, hell, let's give them a bail out and bonuses. It's the tax payers money so its OK.

gil
gil - Monday July 13, 2009 12:56PM EDT

ONE MORE TIME, TOGETHER NOW: "no one in washington gives a damn about any of us, unless it's voting time."

GerritD
GerritD - Monday July 13, 2009 12:59PM EDT

let it fail!

Andy
Andy - Monday July 13, 2009 12:59PM EDT

The company (CIT) does not need the money. They have $7 Billion in net tangible assets and have positive cash flow from operations.

Warren
Warren - Monday July 13, 2009 12:59PM EDT

Yes, governement got unlimited resoruces to bail out, we are only half way to the credit, fiancial crisis and recession, even we are back to growth. The housing market slump and soaring jobless rate cut into consumer, businesss spending, will supply more foreclosure, mortgage and credit default whci will causes more loan loss for the already bailed company ( even Bank America and Wells Fargo, with its stock prices more than triple, and new list of unbailed companies. details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/macro.html

you
- Monday July 13, 2009 01:01PM EDT

No More Bailouts! There is no such thing as "too big to fail". Let the mismanaged companies fail that took the high risk investment path.

Richard
Richard - Monday July 13, 2009 01:01PM EDT

One sure way they would be awarded unlimited bailouts is to quickly get unionized. Since I do not think anyone, including the federal government, is too big to fail I would not provide them with any more funds but be first in line to collect the Tarp funds they owe. It use to be that companies were the stockholders so if a stock goes to near zero, like BAC at $2.93, why does the government feel compelled to step in? Let the strong survive, like Ford in the case of Detroit, and a better company will fill the gap including the one that went bankrupt. This foolishness is going to cost us many jobs in the future not save them as Washington is telling us. What do you think will happen to these weak companies after a few decades of international competition?

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday July 13, 2009 01:01PM EDT

Why is this even in question? The government has been bailing out banks ever since creation of the Fed. They have to bail out Citi, the owners of the Fed want it that way.

gordyp
gordyp - Monday July 13, 2009 01:04PM EDT

let it fail, curious to see how markets/investors will react to the failure. It will be healthy in the long run.

Art
Art - Monday July 13, 2009 01:06PM EDT

Grease-up people, we are going to get it again from the democrats.

Gabriele
Gabriele - Monday July 13, 2009 01:08PM EDT

Hey I have a mortgage. Since I'm in debt too can I ask the government for a bail out?

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