Sunday, November 8, 2009, 5:38AM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

Forget Goldman, Intel's Strong 2Q Results More Important, Strategist Says

Posted Jul 14, 2009 03:38pm EDT by Aaron Task in Computers, Semiconductors, Banking

Updated from 3:38 p.m. EDT 

Update: Intel reported better-than-expected results after the close on Tuesday. The chip giant reported  second-quarter revenue of $8 billion, above the consensus of $7.3 billion. Excluding a one-time charge stemming from a European Commission fine, the company posted EPS of 18 cents a share, well ahead of consensus of 8 cents.

“Intel’s second-quarter results reflect improving conditions in the PC market segment with our strongest first- to second-quarter growth since 1988 and a clear expectation for a seasonally stronger second half,” president and CEO Paul Otellini said in the firm's press release.

For the current quarter, Intel forecast revenue of $8.1 billion to $8.9 billion vs. the current consensus of $7.8 billion.

Intel shares rose in the initial after-hours reaction, ahead of its conference call slated for 5:30 p.m. EDT. 

Earlier: Stocks managed only meager gains Tuesday despite blowout results from Goldman Sachs this morning.

But the press is paying too much attention to Goldman and the financials generally, says Vinny Catalano, president and global investment strategist with Blue Marble Research, who says Intel's post-close results are more important.

While not diminishing the importance of the financials, Catalano's point is the market needs new leadership, and economically sensitive "cyclical" areas like tech and industrials, as well as major pharma names, will give a better barometer of the state of the global economy.

On that front, Catalano is encouraged by results from Alcoa and Johnson & Johnson and believes Dell's disappointment is more a result of its overexposure to developed markets vs. a sign the global "green shoots" are turning brown.

Like most, the strategist and blogger believes second-quarter results must exceed consensus expectations in order for the market to resume the rally off the March lows. Unlike some, Catalano is confident S&P 500 earnings will exceed the consensus estimates of $14 per share of operating earnings.

That should "encourage" the market and lead to a resumption of the rally, Catalano says, as we discuss in more detail in a forthcoming segment.

29 Comments

nick
nick - Tuesday July 14, 2009 03:57PM EDT

Intel is more important then any of the financials, as they are not being manipulated by the govt.

UncleW
UncleW - Tuesday July 14, 2009 04:02PM EDT

Im waiting for GEs results, theyve got their hands in everything and their results will give a good indication of the overall economy

Colin
Colin - Tuesday July 14, 2009 04:06PM EDT

I am disappointed at the recent call on GE. True, they are over exposed in their financial holdings, and possibly their debt, as well, but here you have a seasoned leader in the industrials which could realize its true potential in green revolution. They could be the #1 leader in Greentech and make a substantial contribution to getting the U.S. off its knees. Now if only they would get out of the financials and pay off that debt.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 14, 2009 04:11PM EDT

Oh, no! Johnny has gone tech...

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 14, 2009 04:15PM EDT

Intel numbers won't be good. They can't manipulate the balance sheet like the big banks!

Andy
Andy - Tuesday July 14, 2009 04:19PM EDT

The first author said:

chubby
chubby - Tuesday July 14, 2009 04:22PM EDT

Intel beats large and the after-hours (amateur-hour) traders are trading it below close. Is that because of the one-time charges? I don't get it.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 14, 2009 04:24PM EDT

LOL exactly - those pesky "one time" losses that seem to show up EVERY quarter really aren't a true gauge of the underlying business! Apparantly Enron was just ahead of their time because now criminal accounting practices are widely accepted

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 14, 2009 04:25PM EDT

Johhny Ike is still a moron - amazing consistency!

pari
pari - Tuesday July 14, 2009 04:30PM EDT

Should president Obama win the health-care bid, then all Americans' health health history will have to be documented and I think the entire hardware & software companies will be busy for some time to come.

Ray
Ray - Tuesday July 14, 2009 04:41PM EDT

The stock winners will come from the stimulus money, banks, the cap and trade bussiness, government medical insurance, green energy. The consumer industry can not pick up with consumers out of work.

Jon
Jon - Tuesday July 14, 2009 04:47PM EDT

Forget Goldman -- They had spare Billions laying around called "TARP" and dumped it in a beaten up $35 crude market creating a false run backed with enough cash to drag in the "the recession's over" lemmings. GS sold off leaving bag holders as they do every time. They profited and paid back the govt TARP resulting in a blowout profit report. Not hard to figure out.

gary
gary - Tuesday July 14, 2009 04:53PM EDT

people arent building stuff and people arent buying stuff. i dont need a new computer to figure that one out. how is it that the market expects the buying public to just start buying. we already did that thing with the credit cards and the mc manshions. and the new cars. lets get real. build it first then youl have the money to buy it.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 14, 2009 05:19PM EDT

Vinny is such an intellectual "pimp": Intel says it earned $1 billion, or 18 cents per share, in the second quarter, excluding the EU fine. Coomment: the Q2 2008 is 28 cents. The YoY is simply NOT acceptable. This is a terrible and terrible number in relation to its P/E ratio. The EPS is down almost 35% Sales fell 15 percent to $8.02 billion. Comment: This compares to 9.5 billion in Q2 2008, which represents a almost 15% drop YoY. Beating the dubious estimates is the corrupted Wall Street game. That game is no longer good. The rational investors, not speculators or gamblers, are screaming at INTL, is this all you can do? You want me to pay you a hefty 21.4 P/E? ********************** What a wimpy earning power!!! This earning season is set up to be a big disappoitment at 110 trailing P/E on S &P. Robert Schiller said the market is about fair valued on a 10 year E basis. BUT COULD go down a lot. I slightly disagree on the latter part. Market move is not based on the 10 year E. We all agree. On the way up, it was not based on the 10 year E; On the way down, it will not follow that either. You see, at 110 P/E, the market becomes its worst enemy. This is what we get from market manipulation--the market requires nothing less than a spectacular blow out Q2, in an order of 50% plus YoY earning increase. The almost-corrupted Wall Street "low earning estimates" game will not satisfy the market any longer. Beating estimate is no longer good enough. The market demands a rebost earning outlook, not just recovery, but a RAPID torrential growth. We will be screaming at each earning report:"show me the earnings!!" So, here is the expectation market has baked in: The last 4 sequential quarters are $7.57 (97% of all reported), -$23.25, $9.73, $12.86 repectively from the oldest to the newest. That results in about 8 trailinbg p/E. AS REPORTED EARNINGS estaimates (top down) for the next 3 quarters including the just started Q2 are $7.27 $6.42 $6.17 respectively. THis would result in about 27 EPS for the year 2009. That would put S&P at 405 as a fair value, 27*15=405. AT the current 880 level, Mr. market needs the 2009 EPS to be at 59, 880/15=58.67. So Mr. coporate America needs to show they can fill the gap between 27 and 59, i.e. 22 (59-27=22) SO, this means on average, each quarter from now on must have a $7 increase on its correponding estimate, i.e. $14.27, $13.42, $13.17 respectively. The corresponding previous year quarterly earnings are $12.86, $9.73,-$23.25. This traslates to YoY quarterly increases of 11% (14.27/12.86), 38% (13.42/9.73) and N/A or a flat QoQ (13.42 Vs. 13.17) repectively. To be more specific, We will be screaming at each earning report:" NOT only do you need to give me a 10% increase now, but also you need to project a 38% YoY increase next quarter and keep the momentum up to the Q4!!"

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday July 14, 2009 05:23PM EDT

Vinny is such an intellectual "pimp". Aaron, where did you find this type of inferior human beings??? ********** Intel says it earned $1 billion, or 18 cents per share, in the second quarter, excluding the EU fine. Comment: the Q2 2008 is 28 cents. The YoY is simply NOT acceptable. This is a terrible and terrible number in relation to its P/E ratio. The EPS is down almost 35% Sales fell 15 percent to $8.02 billion. Comment: This compares to 9.5 billion in Q2 2008, which represents a almost 15% drop YoY. *************** Beating the dubious estimates is the corrupted Wall Street game. That game is no longer good. The rational investors, not speculators or gamblers, are screaming at INTL, is this all you can do? You want me to pay you a hefty 21.4 P/E? ********************** What a wimpy earning power!!! This earning season is set up to be a big disappoitment at 110 trailing P/E on S &P. Robert Schiller said the market is about fair valued on a 10 year E basis. BUT COULD go down a lot. I slightly disagree on the latter part. Market move is not based on the 10 year E. We all agree. On the way up, it was not based on the 10 year E; On the way down, it will not follow that either. You see, at 110 P/E, the market becomes its worst enemy. This is what we get from market manipulation--the market requires nothing less than a spectacular blow out Q2, in an order of 50% plus YoY earning increase. The almost-corrupted Wall Street "low earning estimates" game will not satisfy the market any longer. Beating estimate is no longer good enough. The market demands a rebost earning outlook, not just recovery, but a RAPID torrential growth. We will be screaming at each earning report:"show me the earnings!!" So, here is the expectation market has baked in: The last 4 sequential quarters are $7.57 (97% of all reported), -$23.25, $9.73, $12.86 repectively from the oldest to the newest. That results in about 8 trailinbg p/E. AS REPORTED EARNINGS estaimates (top down) for the next 3 quarters including the just started Q2 are $7.27 $6.42 $6.17 respectively. THis would result in about 27 EPS for the year 2009. That would put S&P at 405 as a fair value, 27*15=405. AT the current 880 level, Mr. market needs the 2009 EPS to be at 59, 880/15=58.67. So Mr. coporate America needs to show they can fill the gap between 27 and 59, i.e. 22 (59-27=22) SO, this means on average, each quarter from now on must have a $7 increase on its correponding estimate, i.e. $14.27, $13.42, $13.17 respectively. The corresponding previous year quarterly earnings are $12.86, $9.73,-$23.25. This traslates to YoY quarterly increases of 11% (14.27/12.86), 38% (13.42/9.73) and N/A or a flat QoQ (13.42 Vs. 13.17) repectively. To be more specific, We will be screaming at each earning report:" NOT only do you need to give me a 10% increase now, but also you need to project a 38% YoY increase next quarter and keep the momentum up to the Q4!!"

Tex
Tex - Tuesday July 14, 2009 06:08PM EDT

I like the chip equipment stocks over INTC; AMAT & KLAC.

san
san - Tuesday July 14, 2009 06:11PM EDT

They are in effect a monopoly and in a recession they can just put up their prices to cover loss of sales. Don't be fooled businesses with competitors cannot do this and so this is not a sign of recovery IMHO.

Michael
Michael - Tuesday July 14, 2009 06:13PM EDT

Yes, operating income...a way of showing how well the company would have done if hadn't done as bad as it did.

frankmargel.com
frankmargel.com - Tuesday July 14, 2009 07:33PM EDT

The markets are not shaking off all these goofball predictions. The markets aren't selling off trillions in useless assets and junk. The markets are holding off world wide economic calamity. Cool or what? When the markets crash, and markets do crash, some will have tears and others will say, "I told you so." GAWD! What a mess? Later Gang...

Meltdownman1
Meltdownman1 - Tuesday July 14, 2009 07:35PM EDT

Yep, that is what I want...my healthcare records on file in India. Did you know a company in India threatened to release the healthcare records of individuals in this country because they had a disagreement with a Radiology Firm here in this country? That is a fact. My wife is CEO of a Radiology Firm and it was a well kept secret that some firms were shifting their records to overseas just to save a buck. I told her if she did that with her company I would divorce her.

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