S&P to Hit 1050 by Fall: Strategist Sees a Rally in Market "Rorschach Test"

Hope the market does go up, Michigan is running low on Road Pizza.

Vinny is such an intellectual "pimp". Aaron, where did you find this type of inferior human beings??? ********** Intel says it earned $1 billion, or 18 cents per share, in the second quarter, excluding the EU fine. Comment: the Q2 2008 is 28 cents. The YoY is simply NOT acceptable. This is a terrible and terrible number in relation to its P/E ratio. The EPS is down almost 35% Sales fell 15 percent to $8.02 billion. Comment: This compares to 9.5 billion in Q2 2008, which represents a almost 15% drop YoY. *************** Beating the dubious estimates is the corrupted Wall Street game. That game is no longer good. The rational investors, not speculators or gamblers, are screaming at INTL, is this all you can do? You want me to pay you a hefty 21.4 P/E? ********************** What a wimpy earning power!!! This earning season is set up to be a big disappoitment at 110 trailing P/E on S &P. Robert Schiller said the market is about fair valued on a 10 year E basis. BUT COULD go down a lot. I slightly disagree on the latter part. Market move is not based on the 10 year E. We all agree. On the way up, it was not based on the 10 year E; On the way down, it will not follow that either. You see, at 110 P/E, the market becomes its worst enemy. This is what we get from market manipulation--the market requires nothing less than a spectacular blow out Q2, in an order of 50% plus YoY earning increase. The almost-corrupted Wall Street "low earning estimates" game will not satisfy the market any longer. Beating estimate is no longer good enough. The market demands a rebost earning outlook, not just recovery, but a RAPID torrential growth. We will be screaming at each earning report:"show me the earnings!!" So, here is the expectation market has baked in: The last 4 sequential quarters are $7.57 (97% of all reported), -$23.25, $9.73, $12.86 repectively from the oldest to the newest. That results in about 8 trailinbg p/E. AS REPORTED EARNINGS estaimates (top down) for the next 3 quarters including the just started Q2 are $7.27 $6.42 $6.17 respectively. THis would result in about 27 EPS for the year 2009. That would put S&P at 405 as a fair value, 27*15=405. AT the current 880 level, Mr. market needs the 2009 EPS to be at 59, 880/15=58.67. So Mr. coporate America needs to show they can fill the gap between 27 and 59, i.e. 22 (59-27=22) SO, this means on average, each quarter from now on must have a $7 increase on its correponding estimate, i.e. $14.27, $13.42, $13.17 respectively. The corresponding previous year quarterly earnings are $12.86, $9.73,-$23.25. This traslates to YoY quarterly increases of 11% (14.27/12.86), 38% (13.42/9.73) and N/A or a flat QoQ (13.42 Vs. 13.17) repectively. To be more specific, We will be screaming at each earning report:" NOT only do you need to give me a 10% increase now, but also you need to project a 38% YoY increase next quarter and keep the momentum up to the Q4!!"

First woo hoo!

S&P to 450 before the end of 2009 if you are honest to yourself. ************** Vinny is such an intellectual "pimp". Aaron, where did you find this type of inferior human beings??? ********** Intel says it earned $1 billion, or 18 cents per share, in the second quarter, excluding the EU fine. Comment: the Q2 2008 is 28 cents. The YoY is simply NOT acceptable. This is a terrible and terrible number in relation to its P/E ratio. The EPS is down almost 35% Sales fell 15 percent to $8.02 billion. Comment: This compares to 9.5 billion in Q2 2008, which represents a almost 15% drop YoY. *************** Beating the dubious estimates is the corrupted Wall Street game. That game is no longer good. The rational investors, not speculators or gamblers, are screaming at INTL, is this all you can do? You want me to pay you a hefty 21.4 P/E? ********************** What a wimpy earning power!!! This earning season is set up to be a big disappoitment at 110 trailing P/E on S &P. Robert Schiller said the market is about fair valued on a 10 year E basis. BUT COULD go down a lot. I slightly disagree on the latter part. Market move is not based on the 10 year E. We all agree. On the way up, it was not based on the 10 year E; On the way down, it will not follow that either. You see, at 110 P/E, the market becomes its worst enemy. This is what we get from market manipulation--the market requires nothing less than a spectacular blow out Q2, in an order of 50% plus YoY earning increase. The almost-corrupted Wall Street "low earning estimates" game will not satisfy the market any longer. Beating estimate is no longer good enough. The market demands a rebost earning outlook, not just recovery, but a RAPID torrential growth. We will be screaming at each earning report:"show me the earnings!!" So, here is the expectation market has baked in: The last 4 sequential quarters are $7.57 (97% of all reported), -$23.25, $9.73, $12.86 repectively from the oldest to the newest. That results in about 8 trailinbg p/E. AS REPORTED EARNINGS estaimates (top down) for the next 3 quarters including the just started Q2 are $7.27 $6.42 $6.17 respectively. THis would result in about 27 EPS for the year 2009. That would put S&P at 405 as a fair value, 27*15=405. AT the current 880 level, Mr. market needs the 2009 EPS to be at 59, 880/15=58.67. So Mr. coporate America needs to show they can fill the gap between 27 and 59, i.e. 22 (59-27=22) SO, this means on average, each quarter from now on must have a $7 increase on its correponding estimate, i.e. $14.27, $13.42, $13.17 respectively. The corresponding previous year quarterly earnings are $12.86, $9.73,-$23.25. This traslates to YoY quarterly increases of 11% (14.27/12.86), 38% (13.42/9.73) and N/A or a flat QoQ (13.42 Vs. 13.17) repectively. To be more specific, We will be screaming at each earning report:" NOT only do you need to give me a 10% increase now, but also you need to project a 38% YoY increase next quarter and keep the momentum up to the Q4!!"

Silly stuff, this "technical analysis", but the analyst is correct about one thing: if enough traders think they see a pattern, and then follow through on it, it may become a self-fulfilling prophecy - thus are great "technicians" born. And to think I once thought "head and shoulders" was a shampoo...

Catalano, my kind of Man, looks at the charts! The Historic patterns do not look good for this era?

testing

Dude - you need to chill. I wouldn't buy INTC at a 4 PE so it matters little to me anyway, but if you "know" the Wall Street earnings "game" is rigged then it would seem you should compensate accordingly. My guess is the market is willing to pay a certain multiple based on more than just the Street's expectations. Tech companies always used to command much better valuations than "boring" stuff like rails and steels - but how things can change. If it was that easy, we'd all be rich? So you don't believe S&P 500 goes to 1050? I don't either, but there are fundamental reasons - like the impending crash in commercial real estate and the slow awakening this event seems to have on the street - why I don't. Simply put, there will another $1-2T needed to paper over this "grand canyon" and the banks just ain't got it.

Now S&P 500 trade at range:956 to 870.Last couple weeks we see S&P 500 pull dowm from 956 to 870,we don't see any big chang about fundamental. The reason is simple: Big Trade Firm sell stock and take proft.Monday the market turn up.We like S&P 500 retest 956.If it break and stand above 960 then we can expect reach 1030 to 1060. Fall or end of the year ? Let's pray!

"the simple fact that many others pay attention to chart patterns, which then moves chart pattern analyses to the behavioral science realm - the study of your fellow investment rats and how they run the maze." Oh, my God! Can someone please help me tell the truth! I am still trying to adjust my chair, which I just fell off. Should Charts follow humans or humans follow charts???? He is not brought up correctly. Last time I use this phrase is to that woman from Charles Schawb (Liz Saunder???) This being is pretty close to that one in terms of its brain power! This is the single biggest reason why I believe Wall Street needs to be downsized by at least 80%. There are too many beings like this in our economy who are busy scavenging for a buck, bot not noncontributing a penny to our society. Well, nevertheless, this one makes me LOL or LMAO, for a WRONG reason!

Now S&P 500 trade at 956 to 870 range.Last couple weeks S&P 500 pull down from 956 to 870 .There are no big change about fundamental The reason is simple:BIG TRADE FIRM sell the stock take profit..We like see S&P 500 retest 956 then go up1030 to1060.Fall or end of the year? Let's pray

I get an uneasy feeling that 10y, 20y and 30y treasury rates are going to 1.5 or double. The fed can't continue to hold them down for another 3 months. The shell game is going to come to an end the 4th quarter.

Market psychology tells me its going to be a tough six months. Home are sales slow, cars are sales slow, California will have to resolve the budget. Money will not move into the stock market until Christmas sales are adding up.

We're coming to the end of a giant pull back sell IMHO. Bearish! Show me the earnings! (money)

Consider retail sales, sans gasoline/autos, down. Average hours worked sits at 33/week. Temp agencies are still not moving resources. Transportation is down. Commercial real estate is toxic. Consumer spending is down, savings up. Ten Year bond yields spike. GS should go up with all their "connections". If you go across to Germany, manufacturing is down. You still have toxic assets. These pundits are talking up everything, especially when you lowball the estimates and you have TARP support mixed in with the reports. You still have reluctance in the Treasury market and, and, and, you have this guy calling for 1050 S&P? These hedgies want your money bad.... and you people only want the Fed investigated??? Yeah, and the Bush administration was a bunch of liars..... This is all bullshit.

Looks like a stage 4 market which is down! I don't see how we can rally on up with crummy earnings do you? In earnings season they always get the best stocks to report first to sucker in the private investor.

Hey Gang! Happy Tuesday! Earnings are posting and the markets are holding. Chaos will soon dispense with all the hype and fear. If chaos sits on the sidelines like a majority of Americans, this technical analysis is useless. Frankly, any one predicting a huge gain or big drop at this point looks rather silly. What do you think? I'd use my crystal ball to predict the next tidal wave, but it blew a fuse last week and I don't dare plug it back in to the wall socket. I still predict a downside testing of the March lows. Throw the tomatoes at me, but don't waste food...you might need it! Later Gang!

I'm kijda with subysti_389 in some odd way, I agree with his sentiment towards most of you, except only to say it as.... the market / economy is so much more complicated than any of the bearish theories of crashing.... real estate , Treausries, etc. There are just so many factors and interactions of factors. it is mind blowing , it is almost more idiotic to pull a few fundamental factors out and make a theory of it. It is almost for sure , whether we move into a bull rally or bear fall, the formula wil have been completely different than anything in the past.

yeah, whatever. I'd believe it if and only if he puts all his money on that. Otherwise, it's nothing but WS crooks attempting to swindle your money while they are dumping their holdings.

frankmargel.com - Tuesday July 14, 2009 07:33PM EDT The markets are not shaking off all these goofball predictions. The markets aren't selling off trillions in useless assets and junk. The markets are holding off world wide economic calamity. Cool or what? When the markets crash, and markets do crash, some will have tears and others will say, "I told you so." GAWD! What a mess? Later Gang...