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Don't Blame the Speculators for Volatile Oil Prices; You Might Be One of Them

Posted Jul 15, 2009 09:44am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Commodities

Oil's been on a wild ride.  The run-up in prices earlier this year failed to approach last July's record levels, but the percentage moves have been huge.

What's behind these wild swings? Speculators!

That’s probably the most popular answer heard these days. But are speculators simply scapegoats or masters of market manipulation?  That’s the question we poised to Dan Rice, manager of the Blackrock Energy and Resources Fund – the top performing U.S. equity mutual fund over the last decade.

Rice believes speculators do play a substantial role in the market.  He’s just not ready to damn them for driving up prices.  Referring to last year's record surge to $147 per barrel, Rice says, "speculation provides liquidity to the market. I’m not so sure prices wouldn’t have done what they were doing anyways."

In fact, Rice says speculators are valuable to both sides of the trade.  "You might actually increase the volatility without that liquidity speculators bring," he claims.  And, be careful about who you brand as speculators.  You might be one of them.  Rice says retail investors get in on the action all the time through ETFs.  "ETFs are speculative as far as I can see," he observes.

130 Comments

Brian
Brian - Wednesday July 15, 2009 09:55AM EDT

Yeah ask someone who is a speculator if its his fault. That makes sense.

Tom
Tom - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:00AM EDT

This total baloney like it's all societies fault. I got stock as did many people with high heating oil lock-in. The "experts" predicted $200/gal so we the average consumer did the best we could. His remarks makes me furious

Matthew
Matthew - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:01AM EDT

that a load of crap we have more oil just sitting around than ever before. its the speculators and big oil trying to make a bigger profit with less oil. they make more money hording the oil in storage and saying that cant keep up with demand. demand is at a all time low and the price is still way up. if speculator and the news media would just stay out of it prices would go down. if the markets goes up one day they see that as a sign of increase demand. well the demand didn't increase and the price went up

KH
KH - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:02AM EDT

Yea !!! Hennery is back, making pizza with his hands !!!!

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:03AM EDT

Like asking the fox who's been taking chickens from the Hen house.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:03AM EDT

Oil / you cant live without it ....

Tony S
Tony S - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:04AM EDT

The 60 minutes episode last fall made it all too clear. The run up in oil last year was pure B.S as was the most recent run up. The traders et al can all go to hell. Liquidity, free market, whatever terminoligy you use makes no difference this is all bull spit. Oil should be no more that $25 a barrel.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:04AM EDT

here's a novel idea... DRILL FOR OIL AND GAS IN THE USA... anwr is a postage drilling area of a football field....want CA out of BK.. DRILL FOR OIL/GAS..... how about building some refineries too.... nazi environ'mental'ist won't allow any refineries either... how about nuclear???.... no no no.. not the obama socialist kookjobs..... get those green jobs .. ah, what is a green job nutbags?... name a green job and name ONE PERSON who has gotten a green job under the CZAR obama??? LOLOLOLOL... what a stooge obama lover koolaid drinkers

franck s
franck s - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:04AM EDT

BS. Double speak. Word drool. Psychoswill!!!

silly dodgers
silly dodgers - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:05AM EDT

hell, even he admits that speculators were driving The Crazy Train!

Chris l
Chris l - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:10AM EDT

simple supply and demand

Dave from Chucktown
Dave from Chucktown - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:11AM EDT

Blame the victim! BLAME THE VICTIM! It's a time honored tradition.

Beancounter
Beancounter - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:12AM EDT

Thirty six years ago we were importing 30% of our oil and gas and people were saying we need to quit buying the gas guzzlers, develop solar, wind, hydro and breeder nuke reactors so there wouldn't be nearly as much waste byproduct plus build more refining capacity. (Everybody thought that was all about tree hugging.) So what did we do: invented SUV's and Jet Skis with nary a drop of added refining capacity and precious little of any of the alternative energy and now we import nearly 60% of our oil and gas. So tell me how the speculators were responsible for this.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:12AM EDT

Total BS!

- Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:13AM EDT

what the speculators don't realize or care about is that for every dollar spent on gasoline that is one less dollar spent elsewhere. How can we get the economy back on track when people are not working and have to watch every dollar. If you watch the news everyday, the so-called inventories change with every "expert" making a comment. the truth is, some one buys a million barrels and the price goes up 2 dollars, he just made two million dollars on the sweat of the American consumer.

bill w
bill w - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:14AM EDT

It's reporters like this on that should be on the unemployment line. Mr. reporter: moron. The speculators who trade the oil futures are causing this instability. Unfortunately the govt isn't saying much now and doing little to regulate it. Remember when OPEC did the large production cuts and oil still slid? One way to slow down the volatility is to limit daily price swings--say 25 cents. That would prevent the 2,3,5 and even 9 dollar swings we have seen. Funny....Oil jumps in the mid east by Monday mid day and by 3:00 the same day, the pump price is changed. I wasn't aware we had a teleporter as in star trek that sends the oil over here:) ... Mr. reporter, get a clue, and a job you would be better and more accurate at.

SICK OF ALL OF IT
SICK OF ALL OF IT - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:15AM EDT

Criminals are driving the oil prices. The whole country is full of a bunch of mentally ill criminal scumbags....hope they all die

Mike
Mike - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:15AM EDT

Oil futures are relatively new instruments (26 years on NYMEX). Before the advent of futures and other derivatives there was unquestionably less volatility, gasoline and oil were available, producers still were able to hedge by using forward contracts, etc. Without a doubt, financial contracts based on commodities have added to price volatility, while passive, "long-only" investment funds have led to much higher prices than what would have been justified by the actual fundamentals. If you want to hedge against inflation, a declining dollar, etc there are other ways to do this, the simplest and most easy being, foreign exchange. Fund managers and investors don't need to own crude oil. If you like oil, buy Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Conoco just as that other post said.

Mike
Mike - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:15AM EDT

this is truly a mound of crap. There's no way speculators should ever be allowed to basically corner the market on any commodity, and crude oil is one of the drivers of most economic measures. It is the worst kind of opportunistic greedy behavior that we see manifested in oil speculators. this guy IS a speculator, what the hell do we think he's going to say??

SICK OF ALL OF IT
SICK OF ALL OF IT - Wednesday July 15, 2009 10:16AM EDT

HOPE THE OIL TRADERS GET AZZ CANCER

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