Wednesday, January 6, 2010, 5:52AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 3 hours and 38 minutes.
There was a great clamor last week for a second Federal stimulus - because the first one wasn't working. President Obama threw cold water on that idea over the weekend, when he rejected calls for a second stimulus and suggested that we need to be patient and give the first stimulus time to work.
Well, President Obama will soon be changing his tune, says our guest Gary Shilling.
By the third or fourth quarter, Gary says, the government will launch a second stimulus. Next year is an election year, and despite ballooning deficits, politicians won't sit idly by and watch themselves not get re-elected because the economy has failed to recover.
The second stimulus will finally trigger an economic recovery...but it won't happen until next year.
In the meantime, Gary thinks, the stock market will crash again, with the S&P dropping 35% to 600.
I wonder if the multi- trillion dollar pissing contest that's been going on in the middle east has anything to do with this? We got lazy and arrogant and did this to ourselves. Obviosly not all of us but the majority. This has been 20 years in the making since Reagan deregulated big business. There's no way a year or two can fix it. Good luck to all.
People need to take history lessons on both sides of the aisle. First spending helped cure the Great Depression. We would not have needed it had the Fed not raised rates during the depression. The quickest way out of the recession or depression is lower rates and take the quick punch on the chin. About 18-24 months...it's over and bam, on to recovery. The FED raised rates and it depression set in that last 10 years. It took a war and revamping the industry infrastructure. This time, we lower rates, but we don't wait to take it on the chin. We jump right in with stimulus. The most ideal was what happened with the late 70's early 90's. It was painful, but quick and led to the building of the infrastructure that gave us the greatest boom in our country's history. derrickbemis at yahoo dot com
Maybe its finally time for God to hit the "reset" button. Nuke the planet and start fresh!!
The governmet has only used about 10% of the current stimulus package....Why not used the remaining money before throwing more tax dollars at the problem? Whatever happened to "being shovel ready?" It seems that focusing on health care reform is more important.... What's next? A bill to spot the National Leauge at least 5 runs in the All-Star game so that they can finally win? Apparently, our President thinks this is a big problem that should be addressed. Solution....If you are eligible to vote, get out and vote in the upcoming 2010 elections to get some of these idiots out of office!
just face it... this stimulus money that obama has was NEVER TO STIMULATE the economy.. it is ONLY FOR PAYOFF of his voters... only 10% of the money has been spent... holding the $$ for 2010 election to BUY MORE VOTERS.. ala ACORN getting 4.5BILLION $$. IF OBAMA WANTED TO STIMULATE THE ECONOMY.. MASSIVE TAX CUTS, ZERO CAP GAINS, NO PAYROLL TAX FOR 18 MONTHS... but obama wants HIGH unemployment buy MASSIVE TAX INCREASES on small business... obama wants to SOCIALIZE America and get national health care and he NEEDs HIGH unemployment to do that... once health care is nationalized... AMERICA IS A EUROPEAN SOCIALIST COUNTRY... it will take decades and decades to repair all the harm obama is doing to America...
Why doesn't Aaron Task have a TV gig? I'd much rather have him do an interview than one of those silly ass 45 second hack jobs by the talking heads on CNBC.
Let's have an open disussion about these matters...$ Consider this as a consultation with our spiritual healer.....
If the Ozombies overlooked all of B. Hussein's sins the first time, they'll do it again. This nation will be unrecognizable in another 7.5 years.
Does anyone believe Obama really wants our economy to recover? He is pushing through all of these bills (health care, cap and trade,etc.) that is going to keep our country in recession for years to come. The liberals are in control and watch out democracy.
Anyone who has followed Gary Shilling the past couple years should know he is not "just another Wall Street moron" or a "broken clock". He's one of the sharpest voices in economics and has essentially been correct in all his major projections for several years. While no one bats 100% in forecasting economics or politics, Shilling has actually had an admirable and enviable record.
Well now, don't we have a dichotomy here? If you add another stimulus package, you piss the voters off because they saw the first one didn't work. So, because the first one didn't create the promised jobs, the second one will, so you piss the voters off for lying. And, according to Laura D'Andrea Tyson, you keep spending money to get yourself out of debt.... her words, not mine. I wonder how many of those Democrats up for re-election in 2010 are going to move on this second stimulus. That would pretty much be an admission the first one failed.... this could prove to be interesting ... at the expense of the moddleclass, of course.
If only Al-Queda could do us a favor and fly another couple airplanes into Goldman Sachs headquarters will we see any chance of recovery. Bin Laden is not as dumb as he looks. If Bin Laden really hated Americans he would have flown those planes into a football stadium full of people and not into a couple sky rises with a bunch of fat cats in it. At the time, the bankers symbol of power were the World Trade Centers. The real terrorists are on Wall Street.
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday July 15, 2009 12:50PM EDT Lower the retirement age temporarily to 55, freeing up jobs, promotions, etc., beef up social security with some of the stimulus/bailout money. Unemployment diminishes, economy recovers, and gradually phase the normal retirement age back to 62. problem solved -- next crisis??===================================================== WTF? Who comes up with this stuff? Most who can afford to retire at 55 already do. Those who can afford it and don't aren't going to be influenced by the prospects of receiving a little SS check early or being able to withdraw from an IRA without penalty at 55. All you've done for most people in that case is extended their retirement, thus requiring a larger nest egg. Plus, there are no guarantees companies would even replace the workers who chose an eary retirement at this point. In fact, it's doubtful most would given this economy. And now we're talking beefing up SS with TARP money??? This hair brain scheme seems like something that could only be hatched by the Obama administration itself.
We already "bailed out" stupidity, now we get to stimulate it a second time. What a buch of circus clowns these people are.
A rose by any other name is still an "idiot".
If stocks go up, Wall Street can just print more stock, diluting people's existing holdings until stocks go down again. Then, the shills start touting the "bargains" to be had in the market and telling people to buy, buy, buy and hold forever. If any actual bargains do emerge in the marketplace, the oligarchs will usually just take them private, often right at the lows. What a scam...Unfortunately, the suckers never tumble.
Bottom line. All of our current elected officials should be worried about their jobs no matter what they do or don't at this point. I would love to see them all replaced across the board. Now that would make a statement.
If the second Stimulus is the similar to the first all it will do is prolong the recession. Clearly the first one did not work. If we allow the government to take the same action over and over again and expect different results, what does that make us? Get Rid of the Capital Gains tax and lower the payroll tax, we would see stocks and house markets go up. This would raise consumer confidence and spur many other sectors which would reduce unemployment. Better and quick results and a lot cheaper than the mess Obama pushed through early this year. No More Bail Outs and No More Stimulus Stop allowing the politicians to make their friends rich at your expense.
A) Even if it's not working, 25% of the first one hasn,t been spent yet....B) If the first one is
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LegalizeMe - Wednesday July 15, 2009 01:11PM EDT
This is what happens when you give Democrats majority in the House/Senate and the Presidency. The fools of America bought Obama's garbage hook line and sinker so we all get to suffer. =============================== Civil war or a peaceful over throw of our current, highly corrupt, Democracy is the only solution. We need to throw out all Supreme Court rulings as well. They are NOT following the Constitution! Want an example? Patriot Act. Another? The Federal Reserve Act. Shall I keep going?