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Mobile Advertising: Not As Huge As You Think

Posted Oct 07, 2009 11:16am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Media, Products and Trends, Mobile

Online analysts would like you to know that there's a great new industry growth engine revving up -- mobile ads.

For example, you can't open an analyst's report these days without immediately encountering something like this:

  • We're optimistic about mobile ads!
  • We're bullish on mobile ads!
  • Google's Verizon deal is evidence of the huge new opportunity in mobile ads!

Sounds exciting!

Unfortunately, analysts have been saying the same thing since 1995.  And mobile advertising spending is still a rounding error.

Why has mobile advertising been such a disappointment?

Two reasons:

  • First, advertisers just can't get all lathered up about ads the size of paint chips.  It's nice that consumers carry a little screen around with them all day.  Theoretically, that creates a big opportunity for advertising.  But so far, all that opportunity has represented is the ability to serve up an ad so small that consumers have to squint to even see what it is.
  • Second, despite enormous hype, no one has yet developed a big mobile opportunity that incorporates location-information.  People have been theorizing about how great these opportunities will be for 15 years.  But, as yet, no one has actually thought of one that will work.

Our guest, Colin Gillis of Brigantine Advisors, thinks this could soon start to change.  He doesn't think mobile ads represent a vast new opportunity that will suddenly explode the growth of online ad spending again.  But he still thinks we're talking about a multi-billion dollar opportunity.

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