Skip to search.
Make Y! My Homepage
 
  1. Drag the "Y!" and drop it onto the "Home" icon.
  2. Select "Yes" from the pop up window.
  3. Nothing, you're done.

If this didn't work for you see detailed instructions

Close this window

The Pessimists Are Wrong: No Downturn Anytime Soon, ECRI's Achuthan Says

Posted Oct 09, 2009 12:30pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession
Related: ^DJI, ^GSPC, spy, dia, qqqq

Think the stock market bulls are full of B.S.? You might want to rethink.

Or, more accurately, you might need an attitude adjustment. While it's normal to be pessimistic about the future given what we've just lived through, it's also wrong, Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) tells Tech Ticker.

"The mistake in the emotional attitude is related to the size of the cycle," he says, citing a favorite quote at ECRI: "The error of optimism dies in the crisis but in dying it gives birth to an error of pessimism. This new error is born, not an infant, but a giant. That giant error of pessimism is still running rampant, and will keep most people mired in gloom, long after the Great Recession is history."

Skeptical?

It's understandable but don't discount him. ECRI has a proven track record at predicting recessions and recoveries.

Now, back to the stock market. Achuthan concedes stocks are an imperfect leading indicator. That being said, there's a strong chance "we don't have a downturn in the stock market of any significance anytime soon," he says, citing ECRI's 100-plus years of data on business cycles.

Still don't believe it. That's OK, a healthy amount of investor skepticism is actually a bullish sign for the market.

Go to Tech Ticker

There are no comments yet

Post a comment

Sign in to post a comment, or Sign up for a free account.
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Delay times are 15 mins for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges.

Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data, daily updates, fund summary, fund performance, dividend data and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.