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Jeremy Grantham: The Sucker's Rally Is Almost Over

Posted Oct 27, 2009 08:30am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession, Banking

From The Business Insider, Oct. 27, 2009:

Jeremy Grantham of Boston-based GMO called the crash.  He also called the rally.  He also called a whole bunch of stuff before that--although, as he is the first to admit, like other value folks, he does have the habit of being early.

Not this time, though.

Within days of the March low, Jeremy published "Reinvesting While Terrified," in which he observed that it was time to bet the farm.  He soon called for a stimulus-fueled rally that would take the S&P 500 to 1000-1100, which is where we are now.  He also laid out his expectation that the market would then move sideways for 7 years.

Well, we've hit the high of Jeremy's sucker's rally prediction.  Stocks are now once again significantly overvalued (Jeremy puts the overvaluation at 25%, with fair value on the S&P 500 at 860).  He thinks the market can go a bit higher but that it will break down next year.  He's looking for a "painful" pullback of at least 20%.  A new low is not likely, but not out of the question.

You can download Jeremy's quarterly letter at GMO's site here.  It's also embedded below.  Here's the part on the stock market:

The Last Hurrah and Markets Being Silly Again

The idea behind my forecast six months ago was that
regardless of the fundamentals, there would be a sharp
rally [to S&P 1000-1100].   After a very large decline and a period of somewhat
blind panic, it is simply the nature of the beast.  Exhibit 1
shows my favorite example of a last hurrah after the first
leg of the 1929 crash.

After the sharp decline in the fall of 1929, the S&P 500
rallied 46% from its low in November to the rally high of
April 12, 1930.  It then, of course, fell by over 80%.  But
on April 12 it was once again overpriced; it was down
only 18% from its peak and was back to the level of June
1929.  But what a difference there was in the outlook
between June 1929 and April 1930!  In June, the economic
outlook was a candidate for the brightest in history with
effectively no unemployment, 5% productivity, and
over 16% year-over-year gain in industrial output.  By
April 1930, unemployment had doubled and industrial
production had dropped from +16% to -9% in 5 months,
which may be the world record in economic deterioration. 
Worse, in 1930 there was no extra liquidity fl owing
around and absolutely no moral hazard.  “Liquidate the
labor, liquidate the stocks, liquidate the farmers”2 was
their version.  Yet the market rose 46%.

Click here for the full story.

More coverage from The Business Insider:

 

48 Comments

Rey
Rey - Tuesday October 27, 2009 08:40AM EDT

You Got it Right BooBoo // All The Rich People that Bought Gazillion of stocks when the Market fell to 6500 and bought cheap are going to unload and make mega $$$$$$$ for Christmas Time so you little fishes better beware and sell before this happens unless you want to loose your A$$

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday October 27, 2009 08:43AM EDT

OK, this story ought to bring'm out of the woodwork ... Let the games begin!!!!!

Terry
Terry - Tuesday October 27, 2009 08:45AM EDT

The best regulatory reform for Wall St. would be to replace most of Congress. No Senator should be in office more than 2 terms (12 years) and no Congressmen/women should be in office more than 3 terms (6 years) otherwise they do too much harm to us all. VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010..

Brett
Brett - Tuesday October 27, 2009 08:48AM EDT

Cant argue with much of this, except for "treading sideways". Once the free fall starts, most investors will be scared out again, govt money will be dried up and we will be looking at a tumble much larger than 20%. I would say revisiting lows is almost a certainty.

Terry
Terry - Tuesday October 27, 2009 08:54AM EDT

So the fact that the fundamentals have not been in place for this rally it is just a manipulated hope rally with mostly taxpayer bailout money pumping it. There's nothing knew the offspring of the Robber Barons are still in place on Wall St. I ride the trend as a trader but it would be nice to have a market as an investment vehicle and not just a traders tool.

Scott
Scott - Tuesday October 27, 2009 08:55AM EDT

Govt money won't dry up -- they will just turn on the printing press again!

JerryB
JerryB - Tuesday October 27, 2009 09:00AM EDT

Finally I find someone that is as smart as I am. When the rally started I kept telling people this is only for a quick profit for those with "real" money. Stores going out of business, more people being laid off, those being hired are hired at a fraction of what the last generation was paid, homes being foreclosed on at record rates...and the market keeps going up???? Don't be a sucker!!! Get out while the getting is still good. Who knows...if you get out now maybe the "big" guys will get caught short and actually lose money.

Dennybro
Dennybro - Tuesday October 27, 2009 09:01AM EDT

I agree with Terry--Vote the incumbants out and let them go find a real job--Get in line with the rest of us!!

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday October 27, 2009 09:12AM EDT

I don't know, I know there are a lot of conspiracy theories out there, but I am not seeing where the market takes a dive. In July, all these pundits said wait until October when we can see if the earnings reflect growth on sales versus cost-cutting. Well, the numbers are still from cost-cutting unless you are a selected bank where you got your Christmas present early from Congress... Transportation came out piss-poor and retail already fell on their sword and called the seasonal holidays a bust.... We also see where government influence has helped manufacturing and real estate, but it's gone from manufacturing and may be gone for real estate. This all means the recovery is not a recovery... but, I only minored in economics soooooo and do not have that coveted poli-sci degree.... You do the math on your own.... Me, I'm believing selected hedge funds are getting financial support to keep the market up because this is the ONLY good news available. When companies say .... "...they expect sales to improve next quarter..." ... it means things aren't looking good and they are trying to paint a rosey picture for their shareholders so they don't dumped the stock.... anyone hear any news about corp execs actually buying their company's stock???? Think about it....

Tex
Tex - Tuesday October 27, 2009 09:22AM EDT

We are not overbought. Stocks are just now approaching their 52 week highs; comps are improving; revenues have bottomed and earnings are improving. Let the fear mongers, book promoters & hedge guys give us a scary Halloween. We may get a 5 - 10% correction linked to end-of-year profit taking/portfolio balancing.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday October 27, 2009 09:26AM EDT

Here's some more data for your math calculations --- Steel took another shit and came back with "... production and shipments rose significantly from the previous quarter ..." ... Again, not saying anything about anything ... just pointing out the obvious... Railroads came out last week and stated shipments were down over 20% ... The major railroads also stated they were very "cautious" to predict anything for the future because it was not looking good. You can check this all out yourselves because the truth is important. Now, you have the Steel CEO saying he sees goodness on the horizon. Check to see if this Dude bought any of his corp's stock. Check to see what "significant" means. Check to see what percentage of laid-off workers were brought back. Check to see the available steel inventories. Check to see the steel import tonnage. OR, allow these people to provide your information to you and allow them to influence your investment direction. Me, I like looking at tangibles and actually seeing the numbers. I listen to the corp exec's and weigh their comments against the numbers. You see, when you have people talking up the market, there is no substance behind it. That's a house of cards. You had better hope no one opens the door or window.... But, hey, like I said, it's your money and your future.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday October 27, 2009 09:29AM EDT

Tex ... where are the "earnings improving"? Let's qualify this as saying earnings improved on "sales revenues" sans cost-cutting.

LegalizeMe
LegalizeMe - Tuesday October 27, 2009 09:31AM EDT

To Thomas, the only CEOs buying stock are those heading regional banks. Wall Street and the largest banks have heavy regulation coming while regional banks keep chugging away at the same safe loan portfolios they always have.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday October 27, 2009 09:36AM EDT

right after barack hussein obama gets off the golf course, he is going to fix this market thingy...mmm mmm mmm

Chicago
Chicago - Tuesday October 27, 2009 09:42AM EDT

What goes up, must come down eventually....playing the game. I do agree with voting out what is empowered now.....the elections will be upon us. Afterall, the ones in office now have their future secured with their retirement package, health insurance, etc...and besides they are all multi-millionaires. Look at the backgrounds of some of these elected officials....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday October 27, 2009 09:45AM EDT

The market going sideways for 7 years? You must be joking. Other nations want to dump their T bills and are getting together to form a new reserve currency. That wont take 7 years. Could be less than 7 months. After all, the man is not impartial, he is part of the system.

The Truth
The Truth - Tuesday October 27, 2009 09:51AM EDT

Government Sachs will surely push this market to Dow 11,000 before it's over. Not sure if it will be before year-end or first six months of 2010, but as Thomas said, the increasing stock market is about the only good news out there. And the most easily manipulated when the Federal Government, with unlimited money, and Goldman Sachs and friends controlling the puppet strings of Treasury and Federal Reserve officials, work together to pump up this market. Remember, even though most Americans have little exposure to stocks, this generation was raised to believe that the stock market is the ultimate leading indicator, is perfectly efficient, and is the best predictor of the future.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday October 27, 2009 09:53AM EDT

Stop trying to predict the market and just follow the trend like the PROS: www.originalturtletrader.com ============ I tried turtletrader, and as a consequence live in a cardboard box. Its crowded with the dog and cat.

HongT
HongT - Tuesday October 27, 2009 09:57AM EDT

I agree with Terry and Danny--Vote the incumbants out. They are now just working for themself instead of American public.

AJ P
AJ P - Tuesday October 27, 2009 10:00AM EDT

That guys is a clown. Your a sucker if you didn't buy this year.

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