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Has Buffett Gone Bonkers or Was $44 Billion Burlington Buy Another Stroke of Brilliance?

Posted Nov 04, 2009 12:00pm EST by Henry Blodget in Investing, Newsmakers, Products and Trends, Recession

Every time Warren Buffett does something, a legion of Buffett-watchers immediately pass judgement on whether the world's most-admired investor has finally lost his mind.

Well, he hasn't, says one of the smartest of those Buffett-watchers, hedge-fund manager Jeff Matthews, the author of "Pilgrimage to Warren Buffett's Omaha."

Buffett's $44 billion bet on a railroad--the biggest bet of his career--is a long-term play on economic recovery and, possibly, global warming.  And it includes a nice potential option in the form of 32,000 miles of rights-of-way that could eventually form the backbone of a nationwide broadband network.

Buffett's Burlington bet probably won't earn the same eye-popping returns of some of his earlier investments, says Matthews, founder of Ram Partners and author of the popular blog, Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up.  He paid (relatively) a lot for it, and railroads aren't a major growth business.

But considering Buffett's desire to put a massive amount of money to work and earn a decent return, this seems like a typically smart play.

84 Comments

David
David - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:06PM EST

"form of 32,000 miles of rights-of-way " Think oil and gas pipelines, electric transmission lines, Telecomm networks. Maybe even Hydrogen pipelines if that takes off.

ryan j
ryan j - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:07PM EST

it's greed pure and simple. I don't trust him. He would stab his own Mother in the back to make a dollar!!!!!!!!!!

Mark
Mark - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:07PM EST

Trade like the pros: www.originalturtletrader.com

ryan j
ryan j - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:07PM EST

it's greed pure and simple. I don't trust him. He would stab his own Mother in the back to make a dollar!!!!!!!!!!

Jon M
Jon M - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:09PM EST

If the economy completely tanks, the railroad will be the only game in town.

JoeB
JoeB - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:12PM EST

32000 miles of criss crossing Right of Way. Priceless. Railroad property presides above all other conflicting easements right of way.

Mark
Mark - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:12PM EST

www.dnafxtrading.com

san
san - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:15PM EST

Buy assets baby, don't hold the dollar!

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:22PM EST

HOW BOUT THE RIGHT THING FOR ONCE?.....doing the right thing how ever unprofitable is still most honorable and advised, participating in this false and defective economy which is STILL contributing to millions of good people losing jobs, homes and hope while those with stolen wealth from the American working class go on yet another disgusting spending spree is not something any good person desires.....The road to hell is paved with many good intentions, and since this downturn was intentionally created to maximize profits of the too big to fail corporations and banks while shifting even more control of wealth and power to the criminal usurpers in government, participating in this cabal would surely risk ones integrity and dignity.......quite possibly our country's sovereignty.

Helga
Helga - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:35PM EST

Transporting coal, ore, gravel, fuel oil, corn syrup, ect. ....all the things of life and civilization..........hunting for elephants; more like blue whales.

Anthony C
Anthony C - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:39PM EST

I'm a Buffett watcher, and Berkshire holder for half my portfolio. What is not to like? The railroad has practically a PHYSICAL moat; moves freight for one tenth the fuel of moving it by truck and far more cheaply, and it is brain-dead simple to understand. The only cheaper freight transportation is by BARGE for goodness sake! On top of that, a railroad can incrementally expand by build or acquisition, and ultimately has some flexibility in pricing as well; some heavy things cannot be shipped any other way. I'm happy, it looks like a decent buy to me, and I doubt Warren would be buying it if it weren't profitable and going to pay for itself eventually.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:39PM EST

Stocks are over valued! Buffet has alot of stock. He is just changing the kind of stock he has. Sotck market is a bubble and when it comes down, it will be a crash to be remembered: http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/near_bottom.html

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:40PM EST

Some have said he did this for America... Me, I believe he did it for Warren Buffett. He lost a boatload of money and what better way to get it back than by making a ig play .... He may not make money on BNI, but his other investments have an excellent chance of taking off with an up market.....

checkmark_shaped_recovery
checkmark_shaped_recovery - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:43PM EST

What kid at any age doesn't want a train set?

frankmargel.com
frankmargel.com - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:44PM EST

One hundred dollars a share, a 30% premium and the potential for moderate gains. I'll put my 40 billion on new tech, not old. Call me in a week or two, I'm getting that 40 billion together...smiles....Fun watching Buffet isn't it?

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:46PM EST

up down, up down.......all designed to confuse

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:46PM EST

Good for Mr. Buffett. He makes good investments and then improves and expands those businesses. In turn, many are employed and taxes are paid. A pox on wanna-bees who sit at his table and use the taxpayers money to cover their bets.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 04, 2009 12:52PM EST

Individual trucks hauling goods over long distances is a huge waste of resources. The future will not tolerate such waste. In the future fuel will be more valauble to the economy than wasting resources just to keep more people employed. Globalization doesn't care about jobs, it cares about profit. Like it or not, that's the way this headed and Buffett seems to realize it.

WilliamB
WilliamB - Wednesday November 04, 2009 01:09PM EST

Buffet does not walk on water. He makes mistakes like all us investors and this overpayment for BNI may be his biggest. why didn't he buy in April as I did for 60. Sold yesterday. He pushed us to buy GE in October at 20 when it was on sale in spring for 6.

frankmargel.com
frankmargel.com - Wednesday November 04, 2009 01:14PM EST

BullyTheBear, Warren may actually see his railroad undervalued and too big to fail, but I'm not sure he is corrupt. I think he's presumptuous and assumes a 30% premium is a market wise move. Let's wait and see...Fascinating play by the "oracle"...I predict a big disappointment like his move on other mega caps that flattened out...and disappointed too...Later ....

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