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Forget 11,000, Dow Heading for 6000 and GE Still a Short, Charles Ortel Says

Posted Nov 12, 2009 02:38pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing
Coming off its highs of 2009, the Dow is heading for its first down day of November, which is pretty much a non-event and arguably overdue. But there's plenty more down days ahead for the Dow, and big ones, according to Charles Ortel, managing partner of Newport Value Partners.

When this current "hope-based" rally ends, Ortel believes the Dow will fall into the 5000-6000 range, based on the following:

  • Economic fundamentals: In addition to huge deficits, there's too much supply and not enough intrinsic demand in the "aging economies" of Europe, Japan and the U.S., Ortel says. From 1999-2007 "we made up for that by encouraging people to borrow. Now we're going to correct for that."
  • Geopolitics: "The gathering threats from abroad are severe," Ortel says. Threats from Iran and difficulties in Afghanistan immediately come to mind, but he also mentions "instability in Mexico" as well as the potential for "friendly rivals and determined enemies" to try and take advantage of America's weakened economic state and overextended military.

"If you had troubled economic times and also unwelcome military adventures, you'd have one heck of a correction," he says.

In terms of specific recommendations, Ortel remains bearish on GE, which he has been recommending as a short position since the summer of 2007. Although GE shares have recently rallied with the broader market, "the picture has not gotten better," he declares, noting GE Financial still lost about $2 billion in the year ending Sept. 30 despite extraordinary government support.

From the long side, Ortel remains bullish on gold - which he first recommended in the summer of 2007 - and says India "rises above the pack" when it comes to long-term prospects for emerging economies.

Disclosure: Ortel's firm provides research only and has no positions, long or short, in any of the assets mentioned.

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323 Comments

william
william - Thursday November 12, 2009 02:45PM EST

although Ortel is too bearish he makes some good points... get on the train people before it derails... we're nearing the end of the tunnel..

donfurio
donfurio - Thursday November 12, 2009 02:47PM EST

What a loser this guy has been on GE. He said it was a great short when it was at 11. He also said earlier this year that GE was going to $2 a share. He's been short busted big time!!

donfurio
donfurio - Thursday November 12, 2009 02:53PM EST

If TT losers and shorts actually think this guy is right, I dare you to buy 2011 puts on the SPY at the stike price of 600. My guess is you'll lose every dime, but if you really believe this idiot why not put your money where your mouth is???

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 12, 2009 02:54PM EST

Honesty ... hardly ever known. Mostly people are so un... true. This guy is telling the true from his heart.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 12, 2009 02:54PM EST

Elliot Smith had it right when it comes to this economy and the society we live in http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgOn7wuC3tk

Andrew
Andrew - Thursday November 12, 2009 02:56PM EST

An old song by Elliot Smith speaks toward the state of the economy and the society we currently live in: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgOn7wuC3tk

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 12, 2009 02:57PM EST

5000 OR LESS - LOOK OUT DAY TRADERS, YOU ARE IN FOR A SOAKING. GET OUT NOW.

Clarkbar
Clarkbar - Thursday November 12, 2009 02:57PM EST

Those who've followed Ortel's advice are already reaping the benefits of knowing in advance that the dollar is in 'The Tank' and having been owning gold for the last two or three years has been a real boon for those who like sleeping at night! I personally like the mid-tier gold stocks and the best of breed silver issues.. and yes, I own 'em!

Poppa_Lee
Poppa_Lee - Thursday November 12, 2009 02:57PM EST

........all coming down, includng gold

Poppa_Lee
Poppa_Lee - Thursday November 12, 2009 03:00PM EST

.....GE is the walking dead

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 12, 2009 03:02PM EST

In all my years of investing, swing trading and daytrading. I've never seen a spike that didn't correct back to trend. Word to the wise: The Market has staged a V-shaped recovery, expect a V-shaped correction.The punch bowl is about to be taken away.

donfurio
donfurio - Thursday November 12, 2009 03:03PM EST

Long term I agree with some of what he is saying ie. the US must reduce its debt, however a lot of the things that he is worried about doesn't happen over night. Could the SPY be in a range of 900-1250 the next few years, maybe and to me that's the bear case, this guy is just crazy if he thinks he's going to see DOW 5,000. Just admit it dude, you missed the boat and your clients sufferred just like the losers who listen to Blodget and Task.

Man C
Man C - Thursday November 12, 2009 03:05PM EST

one word ....ignorant LOOOOOser!! Mexican drug trade, Iran's unstability...that's his basis for stock purchase....what about a little faith in American values and intelligence of people...we have survived many depressions and came out very strong...why ignore that as a fact...

Rey
Rey - Thursday November 12, 2009 03:06PM EST

I Totally agree with this guy / I'ts almost ready to start The sell Sign will appear and it will be fast & Furious

donfurio
donfurio - Thursday November 12, 2009 03:07PM EST

JimE_Lee - Thursday November 12, 2009 02:57PM EST ........all coming down, includng gold---------------------------------------------------------------- Idiot, what you prob really mean to say is "I missed the rally and hope to get another chance to buy things cheap, if not I will be insanely jealous of those who had the guts to buy when things looked bleak"

sneakerme
sneakerme - Thursday November 12, 2009 03:07PM EST

he probably got a short position on GE, that,s why I bought it and doubled my $, when guys like him open their mouth, you buy, not sell ! been a broker over 25 years, everything runs in cycles.

BringBackCapitalism
BringBackCapitalism - Thursday November 12, 2009 03:07PM EST

His analysis is correct. Timing the tipping between stupid optimism and reality is never easy.

Bill2
Bill2 - Thursday November 12, 2009 03:08PM EST

Yup

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 12, 2009 03:09PM EST

The DOW IS ...GOING...."DOWN"....DOWN....DOWN....Amen...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 12, 2009 03:10PM EST

I don't know if it's going to correct back to 6000 but it's going to make a hard correction. You can take that to the bank. Eventually it probably will settle around 6000 but it's not going to do it all at once. We've already experienced the biggest crash of this Depression. It's get back to 6000 probably over the next 2 to 5 years, after making a hard correction back to trend when all the speculators decide to cash out and take Johnny Come Lately's money.

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