Thursday, December 10, 2009, 5:13AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 4 hours and 17 minutes.
When this current "hope-based" rally ends, Ortel believes the Dow will fall into the 5000-6000 range, based on the following:
"If you had troubled economic times and also unwelcome military adventures, you'd have one heck of a correction," he says.
In terms of specific recommendations, Ortel remains bearish on GE, which he has been recommending as a short position since the summer of 2007. Although GE shares have recently rallied with the broader market, "the picture has not gotten better," he declares, noting GE Financial still lost about $2 billion in the year ending Sept. 30 despite extraordinary government support.
From the long side, Ortel remains bullish on gold - which he first recommended in the summer of 2007 - and says India "rises above the pack" when it comes to long-term prospects for emerging economies.
Disclosure: Ortel's firm provides research only and has no positions, long or short, in any of the assets mentioned.
What a loser this guy has been on GE. He said it was a great short when it was at 11. He also said earlier this year that GE was going to $2 a share. He's been short busted big time!!
If TT losers and shorts actually think this guy is right, I dare you to buy 2011 puts on the SPY at the stike price of 600. My guess is you'll lose every dime, but if you really believe this idiot why not put your money where your mouth is???
Honesty ... hardly ever known. Mostly people are so un... true. This guy is telling the true from his heart.
Elliot Smith had it right when it comes to this economy and the society we live in http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgOn7wuC3tk
An old song by Elliot Smith speaks toward the state of the economy and the society we currently live in: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgOn7wuC3tk
5000 OR LESS - LOOK OUT DAY TRADERS, YOU ARE IN FOR A SOAKING. GET OUT NOW.
Those who've followed Ortel's advice are already reaping the benefits of knowing in advance that the dollar is in 'The Tank' and having been owning gold for the last two or three years has been a real boon for those who like sleeping at night! I personally like the mid-tier gold stocks and the best of breed silver issues.. and yes, I own 'em!
........all coming down, includng gold
In all my years of investing, swing trading and daytrading. I've never seen a spike that didn't correct back to trend. Word to the wise: The Market has staged a V-shaped recovery, expect a V-shaped correction.The punch bowl is about to be taken away.
Long term I agree with some of what he is saying ie. the US must reduce its debt, however a lot of the things that he is worried about doesn't happen over night. Could the SPY be in a range of 900-1250 the next few years, maybe and to me that's the bear case, this guy is just crazy if he thinks he's going to see DOW 5,000. Just admit it dude, you missed the boat and your clients sufferred just like the losers who listen to Blodget and Task.
one word ....ignorant LOOOOOser!! Mexican drug trade, Iran's unstability...that's his basis for stock purchase....what about a little faith in American values and intelligence of people...we have survived many depressions and came out very strong...why ignore that as a fact...
I Totally agree with this guy / I'ts almost ready to start The sell Sign will appear and it will be fast & Furious
JimE_Lee - Thursday November 12, 2009 02:57PM EST ........all coming down, includng gold---------------------------------------------------------------- Idiot, what you prob really mean to say is "I missed the rally and hope to get another chance to buy things cheap, if not I will be insanely jealous of those who had the guts to buy when things looked bleak"
he probably got a short position on GE, that,s why I bought it and doubled my $, when guys like him open their mouth, you buy, not sell ! been a broker over 25 years, everything runs in cycles.
His analysis is correct. Timing the tipping between stupid optimism and reality is never easy.
The DOW IS ...GOING...."DOWN"....DOWN....DOWN....Amen...
I don't know if it's going to correct back to 6000 but it's going to make a hard correction. You can take that to the bank. Eventually it probably will settle around 6000 but it's not going to do it all at once. We've already experienced the biggest crash of this Depression. It's get back to 6000 probably over the next 2 to 5 years, after making a hard correction back to trend when all the speculators decide to cash out and take Johnny Come Lately's money.
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william - Thursday November 12, 2009 02:45PM EST
although Ortel is too bearish he makes some good points... get on the train people before it derails... we're nearing the end of the tunnel..