Yesterday, CNBC noted that two experts were warning of the coming 60% crash. Now at first I’m thinking, here we go again. We’ve heard these warnings time and time again, only for them to be wrong every time. None the less, I clicked on the link and saw the two experts were David Tice and Abigail Doolittle.
Here’s what you need to know, they’ve both been bearish for years now. Mr. Tice is the founder of the Prudent Bear Fund and Ms. Doolittle has been noting bearish technical patterns in the face of a huge bull market for years.
Trust me, I’m wrong a lot also. You trade long enough, we are all wrong plenty of times. What aggravates me though is how dangerous it is to simply stick to a position. If your wrong, so what? Close the trade and find another one. Being stubborn and sticking to a bad trade or wrong thesis is one of the most dangerous things you can do and is one of the best ways to lose money.
One of the keys to being successful over time is being able to adapt.
I call it being a chameleon trader. The chameleon is one of the most adaptive animals ever. If they need to turn red to hide, they turn red. They have no agenda, just adapt and survive. Adapt or Die is another favorite market saying of mine.
As traders, I think this is very similar. If the environment changes, you need to change as well - and fast. Although I’ve been called a perma-bull many times, in late June I started seeing a lot warnings. Eventually we had the 4% dip (and much larger in small caps) and pure fear came into the market. That was a clue we were about to rally once again. Fortunately for me, it all worked out this time. But my main point is don’t have a bias, just trade what your indicators tell you. And if you are wrong, accept it. Don’t be a hero.
Here’s a CNBC spot I did with Ms. Doolittle back in May ‘13. The SPX is up a cool +25% since then and she has a lot of the same bearish arguments. Sure, it’ll be right eventually, but my big takeaway is be very careful who you listen to, as they might have an agenda under the surface you don’t know about.
Recommended for You
LONDON (AP) — British health authorities announced Thursday they have issued criminal charges against the producers of Star Wars: The Force Awakens over an on-set accident in which Harrison Ford broke his leg.Associated Press
Since the Paris attacks last November and the San Bernardino shootings a month later – the first directed by ISIS and the latter inspired by the terror group - the 2016 U.S. presidential candidates have offered more details on their plans to counter the Islamic State. The presidential hopefuls have…The Fiscal Times
New Hampshire voters gave Donald Trump his first victory in the Republican presidential primary on Tuesday, and less than 12 hours later he fed red meat to the most radical among them when he speculated about assassinating the leader of North Korea on live television. Whether it’s theater or…The Fiscal Times
A very gloomy morning.Bloomberg
New Google CEO Sundar Pichai just joined Larry Page, Sergey Brin, and Eric Schmidt in the...Business Insider
Sears is closing 50 stores. Sears is struggling.Business Insider
Stocks in Japan were getting absolutely destroyed in early trade on Friday. The Nikkei and Topix...Business Insider
Feb. 11 -- Bloomberg's Alix Steel reports on the diminishing U.S. storage capacity for oil. She speaks on "Bloomberg Markets."Bloomberg Video
Tom DeMark thinks that we could be nearing a bottom in the stock market. In an interview with...Business Insider
Tea party Republican Matt Bevin had to tone down his anti-Obamacare rhetoric in order to win election as governor of Kentucky last November. Since then, there has been intense speculation over what Bevin would do to make good on his campaign promise to phase out Kynect, Kentucky’s state-run health…The Fiscal Times
This drugmaker spent 2 years trying to buy another company — and now that it has, its shares are crashing
Mylan, the generic drugmaker, has had its eye on a multi-billion takeover for a long...Business Insider
Time Inc., the owner of Time, Fortune, and People magazines, has acquired Viant, the parent...Business Insider
Feb. 10 -- Dougherty & Co. Analyst Andrea James discusses her outlook for Tesla. She speaks "Bloomberg Markets."Bloomberg Video
JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon has bought 500,000 shares in the bank, according to a...Business Insider
Fortunately, your chances of being audited by the Internal Revenue Service are pretty slim. Less than 1 percent of taxpayers were audited in 2014. The IRS considers audits critically important in keeping taxpayers honest, and they’re also a significant money maker.The Fiscal Times
Save Big on Appliances, Apparel, Lawn and Garden, Tools and more. Staying Warm, or Adding a Cozy Touch to Your Home, Start Your Search at Sears!
David Rosenberg says the negative-rates experiment is failing.Bloomberg
T. Rowe Price and Microsoft are among companies that can provide you with income for years to come.MarketWatch
The end is near for Sears, according to one analyst. Sears is no longer "viable as a retailer in...Business Insider