First Nine Trading Days of August Often Weak

August 5, 2014 12:00 PM

From recent posts and Almanac Alerts, it is know that August has been the worst performing month of the year since 1987 with DJIA and S&P 500 recording average declines of 1.3% and 1.0% respectively. Deeping deeper into data reveals that the first nine trading days of August (since 1992) have an even weaker record than the entire month. In the last 22 years, the S&P 500 has been down 13 times with an average loss of 0.9%. However, if S&P 500 can hold onto its current 0.4% gain through tomorrow’s market close (the third trading day of August), the month may finish positive. There have been 12 positive starts in 22 years. Of these 12, eight proceeded full-month gains.

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