A monthly excerpt from the Premium subscriber version covering all 13 markets.
Last month in this space my Monthly Macro Review/Preview had the monthly outlook heading into the heart of the summer suggesting that Gold and Copper would continue the trend sideways but with a bias higher for Gold and lower for Copper. Crude Oil and Natural Gas also looked to continue to move sideways, but both with an upward bias on a break. The US Dollar Index showed no signs of doing anything except for moving sideways while US Treasuries had an upward price bias in their consolidation. The Shanghai Composite was finally basing after a long pullback, but basing did not mean rising soon, while Emerging Markets looked to continue to move higher along with the German DAX. Volatility looked to remain low, but it was hard to imagine it could stay below the recent range for long. The Equity Index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ Were mixed with the SPY and QQQ looking strong and biased higher while the IWM was testing the top of a range, and could join them on a break higher, but ran the risk of failing. How does an additional month impact the longer term picture? Let’s take a look.
The SPY fell back a little over 1% in July but did nothing to soften the trend higher. It touched a 138.2% extension of the move lower from the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 before the pullback. The round number of 200 over head may take a long time to achieve and then gain separation from. Price is firmly in the upper portion of the bullish Andrews’ Pitchfork though which would look for an attraction to the Upper Median Line at the top. The RSI is pulling back slightly to work off a technically overbought condition and the MACD is leveling. There is resistance at the high this month at 199.06 and support lower may come at 185 and 175. Consolidation in the Uptrend.
The monthly outlook suggests that Gold and Copper with continue to consolidate but with Copper biased higher and Gold possibly ready for the next leg down. US Treasuries continue to look better to the upside as the consolidate and the US Dollar Index continues to underwhelm moving sideways. Crude Oil is testing support so watch lower while Natural Gas continues to look better to the downside. The Shanghai Composite is getting antsy in its recent consolidation with a short term upward bias while Emerging Markets look like they may be tiring at resistance, and the German DAX consolidates it moves higher. Volatility looks like it may be ready to move and hold up off of the long bottom but has yet to test upper levels and looks to remain calm. With that backdrop the Equity Index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ are mixed. The IWM is the worst and is biased lower while the SPY looks to consolidate the long run higher at best and possibly pullback a bit, while the QQQ looks strong like a freight train climbing a mountain. Use this information to understand the long term trends in Equities and their influencers as you prepare for the coming months.
For complete analysis of the 13 markets summarized here join the premium service and read
Macro Month in Review/Preview July into August 2014.
Recommended for You
Kmart employees believe the company is nearing bankruptcy and is in the process of shutting down...Business Insider
- Advance AmericaSponsored
We keep the tough going with 2,300 convenient locations, 6,500 helpful employees & a 97% customer satisfaction rating. Talk about strength in numbers.
More than 30 years ago, a Republican presidential candidate who had originally come to the party’s nomination despite resistance from the establishment, ran on a promise that it was “Morning in America,” delivering a message of optimism and a promise of progress. Last night, as he accepted the…The Fiscal Times
Jim Cramer throws out the old rules of diversification with sectors and introduces his new way to build a portfolio.CNBC
Jim Cramer issued a warning to those wary of the stock market – listen up!CNBC Videos
A wave of profit-taking would be no surprise following a nine-day win streak for the Dow, Needham's Chris Retzler says.CNBC
A few strategies can reduce (or eliminate) the taxes you'll owe on your benefits.Kiplinger
It could also offer the clarity needed for Mondelez International Inc to make a new approach to acquire Hershey. The $12 billion trust, set up by company founder Milton Hershey over a century ago to fund and run a school for underprivileged children, must approve any sale of the company. It…Reuters
(Reuters) - Bankrupt U.S. teen retailer Aeropostale filed a motion against its lender, private equity firm Sycamore Partners, in bankruptcy court late on Friday, accusing it of plotting a "loan to own” scheme to push the chain into bankruptcy.Reuters
Let’s be honest. Ted Cruz wants Hillary Clinton to become president, so he can run against her in 2020. He assumes that if Democrats hold the Oval Office for an unusual four more years, voters will tire ...The Fiscal Times
Foods can last longer if they are stored in the right spots in the refrigerator. Consumer Reports' experts reveal which foods do best in drawers and doors and which belong on top and bottom shelves.ConsumerReports
There are four basic ways to get out of debt, big or small. Here they are, along with what you need to do.MarketWatch
Britain faced calls on Saturday from some European and Asian countries to move more quickly towards leaving the European Union, but the United States said the process was too sensitive to be rushed. At the first meeting of leading economies since British voters shocked global markets in June by…Reuters
Investors don't need to be sold on the beauty of dividends. Dividends have a lot to offer. Companies that boost their dividend payouts regularly typically exhibit qualities associated with superior stock performance over time including strong balance sheets and steady profit and revenue increases.Kiplinger
The bank, based in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, said it had earnings of 47 cents per share. The bank holding company posted revenue of $12.8 million in the period. The First Bancshares shares have decreased ...Associated Press
It was provided to Reuters by Ailes' lawyer. With your support, I am proud that we have built Fox News and Fox Business Channels into powerful and lucrative news organizations that inform our audience and reward our shareholders. Fox News has become Number 1 in all of cable because I consistently…Reuters
DETROIT (AP) — Volkswagen's plan to fix most of its 2-liter diesel engines that cheat on emissions tests includes a computer software update and a larger catalytic converter to trap harmful nitrogen oxide, and it may not hurt mileage or performance, according to dealers who were briefed by…Associated Press
PMI stands for private mortgage insurance. If you can't put down at least 20 percent when you're buying a home, your lender will make you buy it. "PMI exists to protect lenders—and only lenders—......Consumer Reports