2014 in Charts So Far
They say a picture is worth a thousand words, well, I’m going to test that theory today.
Here are some charts showing 2014 so far versus what happened various other years.
Remember what Winston Churchill said, “The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”
First up, here’s the average year for the SPX since 1950. The average year gains about +9% and tends to start strong, chop around during the summer, and bottom in late October before a strong year-end rally. Each data point on the chart below presents the average for each day of the year from all the years from 1950 to 2013.
Now comparing that to 2014 and after all that has happened so far this year, things are right where the average year is up till this point.
This is the second year of the Presidential cycle and historically it has been one of the weaker years in the cycle. In fact, looking at the chart below, this year is actually negative till late October, before a furious late year rally.
Putting this in perspective, this year is actually above average by a good margin.
One other way to look at things is this is the 2nd year of the 2nd term for President Obama. I’ll just call it year six of the Presidential cycle.
Turns out, these years are extremely bullish, up nearly +23% on average. Going back to 1950 there have been four - Bush in 2006, Clinton in 1998, Regan in 1986, and Eisenhower in 1958.
2014 is running a little weak compared to the average year six of the Presidential cycle, but once again we tend to see a strong late year rally after some summer doldrums.
Lastly, here is all the data in one chart.
I wouldn’t bet the farm on charts like these, but I’d rather know than not know. Time and time again last year I’d overlay what happened in 1954 and 1995, and said 2013 could see a huge second half rally as they were all nearly identical. It is tough to remember, but this time a year ago many were chanting for an ‘87 like crash, not a huge end of year rally. History might not repeat, but it does rhyme. To me, the odds favor we finish higher than where we are right now and there’s a good chance for a strong year-end rally.
Picture courtesy of Chris Morley.
Recommended for You
BRUSSELS (AP) — The latest on the Greek financial crisis (all times Brussels local):Associated Press
The finance chief at Fortelus Capital Management LLP got an alarming phone call just as he was getting ready to leave work on a Friday. The caller said he was from Coutts , the London-based hedge fund’s bank, and warned there may have been fraudulent activity on the account. Fortelus Chief…Bloomberg
There’s a fairly standard protocol most public figures follow when they say something callous or insensitive, offending millions of people and sending former friends, admirers, and business partners sprinting away from any further association with them. Trump, the real estate mogul and walking…The Fiscal Times
Truck wars heat up with GM Web ad taking shot at Ford pickup trucks.USA TODAY
July 6 -- U.S.-traded Chinese stocks plunged the most in four years as the government’s latest support measures failed to stem the rout in mainland markets. Bloomberg's Boris Kirby reports on “Bloomberg Markets.”Bloomberg Video
Deutsche Bank met recently with more than 20 oil service companies in Houston and came away with data and opinions that investors can benefit from going forward.24/7 Wall St.
Jim Cramer guides investors on the difference between a broken stock and a broken company during a selloff. Steer clear of this group at all costs.CNBC
As part of a larger redesign, Apple will design its own packaging for third-party accessories sold at Apple Retail Stores.TechRepublic
MOSCOW (AP) — A Russian military aircraft crashed Monday while taking off on a nighttime training flight and both pilots were killed, the Defense Ministry said.Associated Press
U.S. Bank is losing hundreds of thousands of dollars each year on its 17 ATMs at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. Because the losses are expected to worsen as consumers bypass cash machines and more vendors accept credit cards, U.S. Bank is asking for a better lease agreement with fewer…American City Business Journals
After her record-breaking performance in the Women’s World Cup Final, Carli Lloyd can expect millions in marketing deals, but she’s got to move fast. In the first 16 minutes of the match against Japan, Carli Lloyd set a record for the fastest three goals by the same player in World Cup history —…The Fiscal Times
It's the end of an era. After a 167-year run, the roaring sea of aggressive brokers and traders...Business Insider
CNBC's Jane Wells reports on the most expensive fighter jet program in U.S. military history as it undergoes an important test.CNBC Videos
Here's another interesting tidbit buried in a 316-page report filed to the SEC about HP's plans...Business Insider
DuPont stock has been under extremely heavy selling pressure over the last two weeks, but an important buying opportunity could develop in the near term.TheStreet.com
When you own a home, you have to pay real estate taxes and homeowners insurance too. Here's what you need to know about adding them to your mortgage payment.Credit.com
Bill Gross, manager of the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, said he was surprised by the muted market reaction to the Greek vote on Sunday and that “we’re in the eye of the hurricane.” “I do not believe ...Bloomberg
Rhino Trading Partners Chief Strategist Michael Block on the Greek debt crisis and what it means for U.S. investors.Fox Business Videos