All You Need To Know About The August Jobs Report
The monthly jobs report for August comes out tomorrow before the open. The consensus is for a gain of 235,000 jobs added. Here are some stats I found interesting.
* More than 200,000 jobs have been created for six straight months. If it happens again tomorrow it would be the longest streak since seven in a row back in ‘97.
* The all-time record for consecutive months over 200,000 jobs in a row is 15 in ‘83/’84. 14 straight occurred in the early ’40s and again in ‘76/’77.
* The current 12 month average of 214,000 jobs created is the highest since April 2006.
* The current six month average of 244,000 jobs created is the highest since, once again, April 2006.
* August has seen an increase in jobs each of the past three years. If it can make it to four, it’d be the longest streak since the mid-90s.
* The 235,000 jobs expected would be the most jobs produced in any August since 1998.
Turns out the summer months historically are rather slow for jobs growth, not a huge surprise. What is worthwhile though is August is by far the weakest month since 1990.
The unemployment rate is expected to come in at 6.2%, which would match what we saw in July. What matters here is the recent trend is moving lower.
Here’s a really interesting chart which shows various unemployment rates based on levels of education. Not surprisingly, the more educated someone is, the better chance they’re employed.
Lastly, here’s one of my favorite charts. Starting in February 2008 (when the recession started) just 639,000 jobs have been created. In fact, this was actually still negative until this past May.
So what’s it gonna be tomorrow? I’ll say 241,000 jobs created and 6.1% unemployment. Yes, that is a total guess, probably like the rest of the economists out there.
Photo courtesy of photologue_np.
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