Country Spotlight: It’s now or never for Russian stocks
It goes without saying there have been significant developments in Russian stocks since our last update on July 11. These developments have placed the Russian RTS Index at a potential make-or-break level. To review our posts on the Russian stock market:
On March 4, we pointed out that the then-collapsing Russian stock market closed at the key 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of its 2009-2011 rally (number “1” on the chart). The “golden Fibonacci” level is the most impactful level and often creates the impetus for a turn. Indeed the market did arrest its 3-year decline there and began a bottoming process.
On May 13, we noted the progression of the bottoming process with the short-term potential target at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of the October-March decline (number “2”).
In the July 11 post, we noted that the RTS Index had surpassed the short-term resistance at #2 and was at the potentially longer-term directional determinant at the 2012-14 down trendline (number “3”). If the index was able overcome the trendline, it was likely that the Russian stock market was entering a longer-term uptrend.
Fast forward to the present and we see that the RTS obviously failed the test at the trendline #3. Whether it was the newly implemented sanctions or perhaps because the White House press secretary’s Russian stock shorts had finally been squeezed out, the RTS has sold off sharply in the past few weeks. It is now at a critical juncture: the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of the March-June rally. The fact that it has retraced that much of its rally is not unusual nor does it invalidate the “bottoming” theory. Major turns retrace to the 61.8% frequently before they return to their previous bounce action — often turning a short-term bounce into a longer-term turn. It serves to shake out the money that’s uncommitted to the long-term bottom thesis.
Will the once-again hated Russian stock market reengage and execute a longer-term turn. Or was the bounce earlier this year just that — a bounce. That determination should be made based on the RTS’ reaction from current prices.
Recommended for You
Money is fleeing Russia so fast that capital controls may be needed, even though the central bank says there are no plans to impose themBusinessWeek
A man ended up with a $500,000 cellphone bill after a thief used it in a foreign country, and at first, the carrier wanted the victim to pay.Credit.com
Now that October has arrived, 24/7 Wall St. wanted to review some of the most aggressive recent analyst calls.24/7 Wall St.
(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration is requiring airlines to replace cockpit displays on more than 1,300 Boeing Co airplanes to avoid interference from Wi-Fi and cellular devices. Airlines will need to replace certain cockpit display units made by Honeywell International Inc used…Reuters
Detroit lost more than 1 million residents and three-quarters of its retail businesses on its way to bankruptcy. Now Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) wants to go, too. “It’s not helpful when a company like that leaves,” said James Fouts, mayor of Warren, which borders Detroit and likewise will see the end of…Bloomberg
CALUMET, Okla. (AP) — A decade ago, states offered wind-energy developers an open-armed embrace, envisioning a bright future for an industry that would offer cheap electricity, new jobs and steady income for large landowners, especially in rural areas with few other economic prospects.Associated Press
October could have a long list of market demons to contend with-from the shift in U.S. monetary policy to geopolitical hazards that include Kiev and Hong Kong.CNBC
Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Daniel Mross, the producer and star of "The Rise and Rise of Bitcoin," explains why he made the film. He speaks with Pimm Fox on "Taking Stock." (Source: Bloomberg)Bloomberg
News has hit of the first confirmed Ebola case in the United States. Companies involved in potential drugs for Ebola have seen their shares pop.24/7 Wall St.
The worst is over for global oil prices, according to UBS AG and Barclays Plc. After the biggest quarterly drop in more than two years, Brent is set to recover as Saudi Arabia cuts output and demand climbs, they said. “Supply is the important thing and Saudi Arabia is in the process of rebalancing…Bloomberg
Al Gore's investment fund is pouring $30 million into Seventh Generation, the maker of eco-friendly household products, to help build a war chest for acquisitions. CEO John Replogle joins MoneyBeat. Photo: Getty.WSJ Live
About 71% of people have financial worries, a survey shows.USA TODAY
Today’s valuations aren’t to be taken lightly – here’s what you can do.Money
MECCA, Saudi Arabia (AP) — As a child, Osama al-Bar would walk from his home past Islam's holiest site, the Kaaba, to the market of spice and fabric merchants where his father owned a store. At that time, Mecca was so small, pilgrims could sit at the cube-shaped Kaaba and look out at the serene…Associated Press
A Pershing Square analyst was working on Bill Ackman's big Herbalife-is-a-pyramid-scheme presentation. The analyst told his roommate, Filip Szymik, about the upcoming presentation. Szymik told his friend, Jordan Peixoto, an analyst at Deloitte. Between 12:00 and 1:23 p.m. on Wednesday, Dec. 19,…Bloomberg
Cisco CEO John Chambers didn't get hit his...Business Insider